Inquirer handicapper Vegas Vic doesn’t love a side in Eagles-Seahawks, but he’s looking again at a Zach Ertz prop bet that has been very lucrative for him lately.
Here are his selections, as well as our staff picks, for Week 12.
EAGLES (-1.5) Seahawks (48.5), 1 p.m.
Was fence-sitting last week on the Eagles/Patriots matchup with a light lean to the Birds. That didn’t work out. However, went ALL IN on total receptions for Zach Ertz, and when he grabbed NINE, it was BUFFET time for the entire Vic clan. Don’t worry, we went to one of the high-end buffets, none of that $2.99 surf & turf for my crew. So, how to handle this week? Hmmmmmm.
Looked at some of Seattle’s recent spread trends and it scared the uh-huh out of me. The Seahawks roll in with a ridiculous 9-0 spread PERFECTO as an underdog. They’ve also covered five of the last six on the road. And Russell Wilson (23 TDs, 2 INTs, 114.9 passer rating) is having as good a season as anyone not named Lamar Jackson. Thinking that I’ll probably pass on the game wager since the Eagles are generally pretty good at home.
» Read more: Our beat writers pick Eagles-Seahawks
But once again, my strong play will be OVER on Zach Ertz receptions as long as the line is south of 7.
After snagging NINE against a pretty solid Chicago D, and another NINE against the No. 1 New England D last Sunday, Julie’s husband should find some holes in Seattle’s secondary. Tread a little lighter if the line climbs to 7.5 or more.
BROWNS (10.5) Dolphins (44.5), 1 p.m.
Cleveland lost DE Myles Garrett for the rest of the season after last week’s crazy incident against Pittsburgh. But The Baker, OBJ and Nick the Chubb are still ready to rock this school of Fish that has only one W in its last 11 on the road.
BILLS (-4) Broncos (37.5), 1 p.m.
Denver D is starting to be the Denver D, which is why the Broncs have covered five of the last six.
Steelers (-7) BENGALS (39.5), 1 p.m.
Cincy is still looking to bust into the win column and with all the Pittsburgh problems, the Bengals might find the back door.
BEARS (-6) Giants (40.5), 1 p.m.
Not really thrilled about either side here, but the NYG have covered nine of the last 12 on the road, so tickle NY.
Raiders (-3) JETS (46.5), 1 p.m.
Since Oakland has covered only three of the last 11 on the road, we’ll put in a very light buy on the other New York team.
SAINTS (-9.5) Panthers (47), 1 p.m.
Sure nine-and-a-hook is a big number against a division rival, but all New Orleans has to do is stop Christian McCaffrey and it’s clear sailing. Carolina has NOTHING else. Of course, not many teams have been able to stop Run CMC, but the Saints have the defensive chops to quiet the Panthers’ only weapon. Because their QB, Kyle Allen, has turned ugly with NINE INTs in the last four games. If you think the spread is too high, throw 'em in a teaser.
FALCONS (-4.5) Buccaneers (51.5), 1 p.m.
Not sure what Dan Quinn told his kids during the bye week, but Atlanta was hurting big time. The Falcons limped into the week 0-6 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread. Then they came off the bye, headed to New Orleans as a 14-point underdog, and beat the snot out of the Saints, 26-9. They followed with a 29-3 beauty against Carolina last week, and should have no problems with a Tampa club that comes in on its own 0-6 spread run. Gimme some ice, MATTY ICE!
Lions (-3.5) REDSKINS (42), 1 p.m.
Part of my best-bet winner last week was making fun of Detroit QB Jeff Driskel. Well, Driskel made me sweat through a couple of shirts before the Cowboys posted a 35-27 W. His arm is certainly NFL-caliber and his legs are surprising. He was 27-for-46 for 269 yards against the Bears, then followed it up with 15 of 26 for 209 yards against Dallas. He juked and slid for 51 against the 'Boys and 37 vs. Chicago.
So, now, Double V is a fan. He seems hungry and despite a 3-6-1 record, Matt Patricia has not lost the locker room yet. And if Matt P. calls his old boss, Bill Belichick, he’ll probably get some primo info on how to confuse and frustrate a rookie QB.
Not shooting any poison arrows at Dwayne Haskins, but he has twice as many INTs (5) as TDs (2). And those two TDs came in garbage time after Washington was in a 34-3 hole to the Jets, so no biggie. Make the Lions the best bet, baby!
TITANS (-3) Jaguars (41.5), 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Tennessee is starting to heat up with Ryan Tannehill at the controls, winning three of the last four.
PATRIOTS (-6.5) Cowboys (46), 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
Tom Terrific ain’t happy with his offense, so maybe the 'Boys can hang. And of course, PLEASE buy the hook to +7.
49ERS (-3) Packers (47.5), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Aaron Rodgers grew up in Chico, a few hours north of San Francisco, and played his college ball at Cal in Berkeley, just 13 miles across the bay. Last times he went home, back in 2015, Mr. Discount Double Check beat the Raiders, 30-20, as a 4-point favorite, and squashed the 49ers, 17-3, as a 7-point fave. The Cheeseheads are 2-0 as a dog, and have covered seven of 10 so far, while the Niners have covered only one of the last five.
Ravens (-3) RAMS (46.5), 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Impossible to go against Baltimore the way Lamar is shredding opposing teams. And if you need some numbers, how about the Ravens’ winning 10 of the last 12 as a favorite, and posting a 6-1-1 spread record the last eight away from home.