Here are our Grammy predictions and a little rant in defense of country music stars

The Grammys are here, with lots of familiar faces.

Kendrick Lamar, who won five awards at last year’s show, leads with nine nominations and Lady Gaga, Bad Bunny, and Billie Eilish are up for major awards.

As is Sabrina Carpenter, the Bucks County native who is the Philly region’s great hope. She won twice last year and is nominated six times for her album Man’s Best Friend.

Neither Taylor Swift nor Beyoncé released music in the eligibility period, which runs from Aug. 31, 2024, to Aug. 30, 2025, so that’s why they’re missing from this year’s list.

I’m picking winners in the four major categories, which will be among the dozen or so given away on the awards show hosted by Trevor Noah and broadcast on CBS from the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles at 8 p.m. Sunday, and streaming on Paramount+.

A total of 95 Grammys will be given out, however, with most presented in a pre-telecast ceremony streamed on grammy.com and the Recording Academy’s YouTube page, starting 3:30 p.m. Sunday.

That’s where you’ll find the Philadelphians.

Jazz bassist Christian McBride is up for three awards, with his Big Band’s Without Further Ado, Vol. 1 vying with Sun Ra Arkestra’s Lights on a Satellite for best jazz large ensemble.

Philadelphia Orchestra and music and artistic director Yannick Nézet-Séguin are up for two, and Nézet-Séguin is also nominated for one with the Metropolitan Opera orchestra.

Jazz saxophonist Immanuel Wilkins and University of Pennsylvania graduate John Legend have two noms each. The Crossing Choir, Camden gospel bandleader Tye Tribbett, songwriter Andre Harris, and producer Will Yip each have one.

As the first major live TV awards show since the death of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last weekend, the Grammys are likely a platform for anti-ICE protests. We’ll see which, if any, performers or presenters — who include Charli XCX, Teyana Taylor, Queen Latifah, Lainey Wilson, Nikki Glaser, and Chappell Roan — speak out.

Here’s who I think should — and will — win.

Nominees: Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos; Justin Bieber, Swag; Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend; Clipse, Let God Sort ‘Em Out; Lady Gaga, Mayhem; Kendrick Lamar, GNX; Leon Thomas, Mutt; Tyler, the Creator, Chromakopia

My prediction: The most prominent of these in my rotation these days is Let God Sort ‘Em Out, the topflight reunion of hip-hop brothers Gene “Malice” and Terence “Pusha T” Thornton. But it has little chance among these heavy hitters.

Carpenter will have to be satisfied with a performance slot in the prime-time show, a prize showcase on “Music’s Biggest Night.” But Man’s Best Friend isn’t quite up to the level of her tart 2024 Short n’ Sweet.

The consensus says this is a race between Lady Gaga, Bad Bunny, and Kendrick Lamar. All have an excellent chance, with Gaga being a veteran Grammy favorite back on form. Lamar’s album released way back in November 2024, but he continued to impact culture through his “Grand National” tour with SZA and “Luther,” their collab that topped the pop charts for 13 straight weeks.

But this feels like Bad Bunny’s year. Debí Tirar Más Fotos — which translates as “I should have taken more photos” — is the Puerto Rican singer, rapper, and producer’s most confident, varied, and politically potent work.

It’s poised to become the first Spanish language album of the year, and thus a Grammy statement of multicultural solidarity when immigrant populations in the U.S. are under threat. And it would make for a pretty good start to February for the Super Bowl halftime headliner.

Should win: Bad Bunny

Will win: Bad Bunny

Nominees: Bad Bunny, “DTMF”; Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”; Doechii, “Anxiety”; Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”; Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”; Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”; Chappell Roan, “The Subway”; Rosé & Bruno Mars, “APT”

My prediction: This is a strong group, including Carpenter’s cheeky “Manchild” and Doechii’s “Anxiety,” which samples Gotye and Kimbra’s 2011 “Somebody I Used to Know.”

Roan’s “The Subway” hearkens back to classic pop and Eilish’s “Wildflower” is lovely, though it’s a little ridiculous that it’s nominated. It’s from Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft, which came out in May 2024 but qualifies because it became a single last February. When the Grammys want you to be part of the show, they’ll find a way to sneak you in.

My pick to win is “APT.” The duet between Bruno Mars and K-pop star Rosé is a super-catchy global hit that borrows from Toni Basil’s 1982 hit “Mickey,” which older Grammy voters will surely remember. It’s the second-fastest song to reach a billion streams after Mars and Gaga’s 2024 “Die With a Smile.”

Will win: “APT.”

Should win: “Luther”

Nominees: Bad Bunny, “DTMF”; Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”; Doechii, “Anxiety”; Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”; Huntr/x — “Golden”; Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”; Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”; Rosé & Bruno Mars, “APT”

My prediction: The Grammys are silly. Why are there separate record and song of the year categories? In theory because the latter is a songwriter’s award. But these categories are virtually identical, the only difference being dropping Roan for “Golden” from the Netflix movie KPop Demon Hunters.

Let’s give this one to last year’s Super Bowl halftime headliners to reward their overall excellence and songwriting skills.

Should win: “Luther”

Will win: “Luther”

Nominees: Olivia Dean, Katseye, The Marías, Addison Rae, Sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren, Lola Young

A little rant detour: Another failing: The Recording Academy has completely ignored country music in the major categories. The Grammys are, in many ways, a popularity contest. Unlike the Oscars, which sometimes reward niche and art house fare and look askance at commercial success, the Grammys are intent on showing they’re in step with the zeitgeist by recognizing big sellers.

Except they don’t bother when it comes to country, thus reinforcing America’s cultural divide. The Recording Academy isn’t too blame when it comes to Morgan Wallen, whose I’m the Problem was the most streamed album in the U.S. in 2025 — because he chose to not submit his music.

But completely credible and widely popular country artists like Ella Langley and especially Megan Moroney are obvious candidates for best new artist. They have been shown no love, either due to cluelessness or a conscious decision to shut out mainstream country. End of rant!

My prediction: In this last of the major categories, Addison Rae is to be commended for making a smart, catchy transition from TikTok to pop star. Leon Thomas emerged as a serious R&B artist with staying power, and Lola Young is a major talent whose “Messy” is a terrific universalist earworm.

But my most confident prediction in these four categories is Olivia Dean. The British songwriter is marked for stardom, simultaneously coming off as a youthful ingenue and an old soul. Her vocals have a slight Amy Winehouse tinge without being imitative. Her breezy, immediately likable The Art of Loving mixes neo-soul 1970s Los Angeles soft-rock is right up the Grammy alley.

Should win: Olivia Dean

Will win: Olivia Dean