Examining the Flyers’ odds of landing the No. 1 pick in the NHL draft lottery

While the Flyers’ regulation-loss total increased by one to 44 with Monday’s defeat to the Chicago Blackhawks, the team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the NHL draft lottery on May 10 — for the moment at least — increased a percentage point to 9.5% per Tankathon. As of Tuesday morning, they have a 9.8% chance of getting the No. 2 pick, and a 19.3% chance of landing one of the top two picks in July’s draft.

The Flyers (25-44-11, 61 points) are last in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the New Jersey Devils, and have the fourth fewest points in the entire league. At present, the Flyers could land either the first or second pick via the lottery, or they would pick fourth (their current spot), fifth (if one team below them in the standings won one of the two draws) or sixth (if a team below them in the standings won both draws) if they did not.

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Now four points behind 27th-place Chicago with just two games remaining, the Flyers are all but locked into finishing with either the league’s third-, fourth- or fifth-worst record. The Flyers could still fall below the Seattle Kraken (58 points with two games in hand) and finish with the third-fewest points which would give them an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. If they finished sixth, the worst-case scenario, they would have a 7.5% chance.

Each season, the 16 teams who don’t qualify for playoffs are entered into the NHL draft lottery for the top few picks. Teams with the worst record have a better chance of getting the first pick. Beginning this season, the lottery will be comprised of two draws (one for the No. 1 pick, one for the No. 2 pick) compared to three in the past. Teams also can now only move up 10 spots from where they finished in the standings, so if teams No. 12-16 are picked, they will get the spot 10 places above their original location and the team with the worst record (Montreal or Arizona) will keep the No. 1 overall pick.

After the first two picks are drawn, the 14 teams not selected in the lottery will be assigned the remaining draft selections, in inverse order of regular-season points. With this year’s system, the Flyers could fall only as far as No. 8 — if they win their final two games and the Blackhawks lose their final two games.

Center Shane Wright, who currently plays for the Kingston Frontenacs of the Ontario Hockey League, is considered to be the consensus No. 1 pick. The Burlington, Ontario native is averaging 1.5 points per game for the Frontenacs, and captained Team Canada to gold at the 2021 U18 World Championship. According to NHL.com’s scouting database, the next four best North American skaters are Logan Cooley (center, U.S. national team development program), Matthew Savoie (center, Winnipeg Ice, WHL), Conor Geekie (center, Winnipeg Ice, WHL) and Pavel Mintyukov (defenseman, Saginaw Spirit, OHL). The top-three ranked European skaters by NHL.com are Joakim Kemell (right wing, JYP Jyväskylä, Finland’s Liiga), Juraj Slafkovsky (left wing, TPS, Finland’s Liiga) and Danila Yurov (right wing, Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Russia’s KHL).

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The Flyers have a pick in every round of the 2022 draft except the second round. They traded the second-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes in the Shayne Gostisbehere trade.

The 2022 NHL Scouting Combine will be held from May 29-June 4 in Buffalo. The draft will follow, with the first round on July 7 at the Bell Centre in Montreal and rounds 2-7 on July 8.