Can the Flyers still make the playoffs? Making sense of a congested Eastern Conference postseason race
The Flyers' eight-game losing streak has the team's once high odds to make the playoffs now on life support.
NEW YORK — “The wheels came off.”
That is how Flyers coach John Tortorella described the second period and beyond of Tuesday night’s 9-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre. But the same can be said for the past few weeks for the Orange and Black.
Once the darlings of the NHL, the Flyers were a squad that was overachieving and overreaching the expectations everyone had for the team. Even general manager Danny Brière said more than once that no one expected his team to be in a postseason spot.
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Yet there they were until just a few short days ago. But thanks to an eight-game losing streak at the worst possible time, the team spiraled out of a postseason spot and added a Flyers collapse to Philadelphia sports lore.
But unlike the Eagles, who took a nosedive and lost in the NFC wild-card playoffs, the likelihood of the Flyers making the playoffs is slim to almost none. The players assuredly know it as they stayed in the locker room, fully in their gear, when the media entered the room following Tuesday’s loss in Montreal.
What are the Flyers’ odds to make the playoffs?
The Flyers are holding on to a glimmer of hope. It’s not zero — yet. So Flyers fans could follow the rallying cry of a famous Phillies pitcher, albeit for a rival team, “Ya Gotta Believe.”
Belief and a whole lot of help will be the only ways the team makes the postseason now.
According to Meghan Chayka, co-founder of the hockey analytics company Stathletes, the Flyers had an 88% chance of making the playoffs on March 24. Eighteen days ago. Eighteen days ago, they had awakened to a 36-26-9 record and a Lindros-sized chance of making the playoffs.
That has been chipped away each day and as of Wednesday, she had it at just 4%. MoneyPuck has the Flyers at 7.5% and Evolving Hockey has the playoff odds at 3.4%.
Who are the Flyers competing against?
After weeks of being the third seed in the Metropolitan Division, the Flyers’ focus is now on the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. The New York Islanders are now third in the Metro with 87 points and four games remaining thanks to a five-game winning streak that began with a 4-3 overtime win against the Flyers.
Behind the Islanders are the Washington Capitals at 85 points and with four games left, and the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings each sit on 84 points with four games remaining. The Red Wings are the only team that cannot take the third spot in the Metro, as they are in the Atlantic Division.
The Flyers have 83 points and just three games left. Although they have at least three teams in front of them for a playoff spot, the Flyers are also competing with themselves right now. They have the fewest games left of the teams still in the mix and need to rediscover themselves, the team that was overachieving, fast.
As Tortorella said: “Whether it’s enough time to do what we want to do to get in. I’m not concerned about that.”
What are the remaining games for each team?
The NHL season officially ends on April 18.
Islanders: vs. Canadiens (Thursday); at Rangers (Saturday); at Devils (April 15); vs. Penguins (April 17)
Capitals: at Sabres (Thursday); vs. Lightning (Saturday); vs. Bruins (April 15); at Flyers (April 16)
Penguins: vs. Red Wings (Thursday); vs. Bruins (Saturday); vs. Predators (April 15); at Islanders (April 17)
Red Wings: at Penguins (Thursday); at Maple Leafs (Saturday); vs. Canadiens (April 15); at Canadiens (April 17)
Can the Flyers actually make the playoffs?
Math is not a friend of sports reporters everywhere, this reporter included but let’s take a stab and see if it’s how possible it is for the Flyers to make the playoffs.
» READ MORE: Embarrassment, a withering chase for the playoffs, and other Flyers takeaways from a bad night in Montreal
Scenario #1: Everyone wins every game. Flyers are officially out.
Scenario #2: If the teams above the Flyers beat the teams below them in the standings and lose to the teams above them in the standings. That means Detroit goes 2-2-0 (88 points); Pittsburgh goes 1-3-0 (86 points); Washington goes 2-2-0, including a win against the Flyers (89 points); and the Flyers go 2-1-0, with the one loss to the Capitals (87 points). Flyers are officially out.
Scenario #3: All the above in Scenario #2 happens BUT the Flyers beat the Capitals and win all three of their remaining games to finish with 89 points. The Flyers are in.
Scenario #4: The Flyers lose to the Rangers on Thursday night. They are still mathematically alive, but barely.