Leo Carlsson offer sheet: Answering the biggest questions about the Flyers’ strategic move

Picture it.

It’s a little past 3 p.m. on the Friday before the Fourth of July. The Flyers’ development camp had wrapped up a few hours ago, and all that seemed to be on the agenda was new contracts for their four restricted free agents, including Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale.

Then the notifications went off. The text messages. The emails.

Six words sent the hockey world afire: “We have tendered an offer sheet.”

Here’s everything you need to know about the Flyers’ efforts to obtain Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson.

» READ MORE: Maksim Sokolovskii ‘mauls’ teammates, a former Flyer’s son impresses, and more from development camp

An offer sheet is tendered to a player on another team who is a restricted free agent and who was provided a qualifying offer. In this case, the Ducks, who own Carlsson’s rights, had until July 1, the start of free agency, to negotiate an exclusive contract without worry of an offer sheet.

The Flyers’ offer is a five-year contract worth an average annual value of $18 million. According to a league source, it is front-loaded with a heavy signing bonus — and signing bonuses every ensuing year of the deal. Carlsson would receive the league minimum in base salary every year.

According to PuckPedia, the final year has a no-movement clause.

The announcement means that Carlsson, 21, has accepted the offer. It would make him the highest-paid player in AAV in the NHL and would walk him directly to unrestricted free agency.

It all comes just two days after Flyers general manager Danny Brière made some interesting comments on the first day of free agency, like stating that if the organization has an opportunity to make the roster better, “we’ll jump on it,” and “There’s a chance, and a good chance, that we take a little bit of a step back this year.”

Was that a tell with the first part and a sleight of hand on the second as the Flyers try to get the first-line center they’ve been craving for years?

According to the collective bargaining agreement, the Ducks have seven days to match the offer, which means they have until 3 p.m. on Friday.

If they match, the Ducks must meet the structure of the contract and pay Carlsson the signing bonuses — something Anaheim rarely doles out — along with taking on the $18 million salary cap hit.

It could come down to the final day, and it should be noted that the Utah Mammoth are weighing a similar decision after the New Jersey Devils tendered an offer sheet to Barrett Hayton. That offer sheet is for one year, $4.775 million, and Utah must decide by Wednesday.

The interesting part is that Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman reported on Thursday that he had heard “over the past few hours Anaheim guaranteed it will match any attempt on Leo Carlsson.” Time is still ticking.

The two teams could still work out a trade for Carlsson to preempt Anaheim’s decision to match, but if the Ducks match, they would be unable to trade him for one year.

If the Ducks do not match the offer sheet, they will receive four first-round picks in the next four drafts from the Flyers. The compensation is based on the amount of the offer, and because it is over $11,939,166.

Since Philly has all its own picks moving forward — it is not permitted to use the first-rounder it is receiving from the Toronto Maple Leafs as compensation here — the Ducks would receive the Flyers’ first-round picks in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030. Had the Flyers already traded one of their picks in the next four drafts, they would have been required to provide the 2031 first-rounder for the missing year.

The Flyers are one of 28 teams that still have four picks in the next five years to tender an offer sheet. Having just made the postseason for the first time since 2020, the hope is that the four picks the Flyers would give to Anaheim would be in the 20s or worse, and not a lottery pick. In the Flyers’ eyes, the expectation is that it would not be a player as highly valued as Carlsson, who is a first-line center.

According to PuckPedia, the Flyers would have a smidge over $29.5 million in cap space; however, that number includes center Jett Luchanko‘s contract ($941,667), and Brière told The Inquirer in early June that the expectation is he will be in Lehigh Valley of the American Hockey League. They do have to re-sign restricted free agents Drysdale, Zegras, Nikita Grebenkin, and Hunter McDonald, who is expected to be in the minors.

The Ducks would then be the ones saddled with an $18 million AAV. The problem? As of Monday night, they have just under $10 million in cap space after signing Pavel Mintyukov to a five-year deal with an AAV of $7.2 million. They still have to sign restricted free agent forward and ex-Flyers draft pick Cutter Gauthier, who scored 41 goals this past season, and defenseman Tyson Hinds. Anaheim could try to move out some players like Chris Kreider, Frank Vatrano, and Alex Killorn; however, they all have modified no-trade clauses, so trade partners are limited. Troy Terry could also be placed on long-term injured reserve, but that would impact the Ducks’ salary cap at the deadline and next season.

The Flyers would be the ones saddled with an $18 million AAV and would have a little over $12.5 million in cap space — with Luchanko being sent down — to sign Zegras and Drysdale to NHL contracts. Grebenkin could land in the minors to start, along with McDonald, so those contracts would not impact the cap space. Zegras and Drysdale’s new deals are expected to combine for in the neighborhood of $15 million, so if the Flyers do land Carlsson, they would likely have to move out a contract or two. Does Rasmus Ristolainen finally get moved, or does a forward get moved to help stabilize things up front?

The Ducks would probably still have to move out a contract to sign Gauthier, who will likely ask for more than $10 million.

Although some would argue the amount is an overpayment, Carlsson is a 6-foot-3, 208-pound dynamic center coming off a breakout season in which he had 29 goals and 67 points in 70 games. He missed time after sustaining a Morel-Lavallée lesion in his left thigh in mid-January but returned after the Olympic break and scored 11 goals and 23 points in 26 games. According to Physiopedia, a Morel-Lavallée lesion is “due to shearing forces which separate the skin and subcutaneous tissue from the deep fascia.”

The 21-year-old ex-teammate of Zegras and Drysdale has size, speed, playmaking ability, and a lethal shot. Selected second overall in the 2023 NHL draft, Carlsson had four goals and 11 points in 12 playoff games last season, his first postseason experience. Across 201 career games, he has 141 points (61 goals and 80 assists) with a 14.7 shooting percentage, and he should be able to help the Flyers’ dismal power play after scoring four goals and 18 points last season with the man advantage. He would have tied Matvei Michkov for second in power-play goals, and the 18 points would have been the second-most on the Flyers behind Zegras.

Carlsson is a No. 1 center with tremendous upside given his young age. The Flyers have needed a top-line pivot since trading Claude Giroux, who, despite some rumblings of a reunion, appears to be staying in Ottawa with the Senators. Carlsson would fit in quite nicely with right winger Porter Martone on the top line, and then, more than likely, speedster Owen Tippett on the left.

The long and short of it all is ... kinda.

Obviously, Zegras and Drysdale have not signed their new contracts yet, and it feels like everything is on hold until the decision about Carlsson is made. As mentioned, they are expected to combine for in the neighborhood of $15 million, and there is still the question of whether Zegras will be paid like a winger or a center; typically, centers get paid more.

Both players filed for salary arbitration on Sunday, which means they cannot be tendered an offer sheet and “stolen” away from the Flyers.

Hearings are scheduled to run from July 20 to Aug. 1, and until they begin, the team and player can still negotiate a deal. If it does go to the arbitrator, they can only award a one- or two-year contract. Because it was a player’s choice, the Flyers will select the term length, and if Philly selects a two-year contract, the player will walk to unrestricted free agency. If it is for one year, the player would be a restricted free agent next summer.

Finding a true No. 1 center has long been the Flyers’ goal, so the question is what happens if they do not get Carlsson? According to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, there have been rumblings that the Flyers could pivot to Adam Fantilli of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Fantilli, 21, is a restricted free agent center, so they could try either another offer sheet or a trade. The Canadian center just registered career-highs in assists (35), points (59), power-play goals (four), power-play points (13), average time on ice (18 minutes, 54 seconds), and face-off winning percentage (49.8%). Across his 213 career games, Fantilli has 140 points (67 goals, 73 assists).