NHL draft lottery: Flyers still a very interested party despite making the playoffs
The NHL draft lottery will take place Tuesday night (7 p.m., ESPN). Here's everything you need to know, including the conditions of that confusing Scott Laughton pick.
One added perk of the Flyers playing playoff hockey in May is less of a reliance on the outcome of ping-pong balls in determining the organization’s future.
Tuesday’s annual NHL draft lottery will not feature the Flyers for the first time since 2020, as the team finished 11th in the standings based on points and qualified for the playoffs for the first time in six seasons. But just because the Flyers aren’t scheduled to make a selection in the top 16 doesn’t mean the organization isn’t paying attention. In fact, the Flyers’ brass will be monitoring one scenario especially closely on Tuesday night.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the NHL draft lottery:
» READ MORE: Resetting the Flyers’ future: Which prospects beyond Porter Martone and draft picks are on the way?
What time is the NHL draft lottery?
The lottery will take place on Tuesday at 7 p.m. in Secaucus, N.J. It will be aired live on ESPN prior to Game 2 between the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild.
This will be just the second time the draw will be live, with TV viewers learning each team’s fate in real time alongside the teams. Previously, the draw was taped earlier in the day, with deputy commissioner Bill Daly later revealing the teams by flipping cards on TV.
How does the lottery work?
While the new draw is more transparent, it is no less complicated.
Each team is randomly assigned a combination of four numbers, ranging from 1 to 14. The worse a team’s record, the more combinations it gets from the 1,000 created. The combination of 11-12-13-14 is the one automatic redraw, allowing the NHL to divide by 1,000 among the 16 teams that did not make the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Vancouver Canucks, who finished with the league’s worst record, have an NHL-high 185 combinations. The Chicago Blackhawks, who finished second to last, have 135. The New York Rangers, who finished 30th, get 115. And so on.
After 14 ping-pong balls are placed into a lottery machine, four are picked to produce a combination. The team whose pre-assigned combination matches the sequence of numbers on the four ping-pong balls wins the lottery.
There are two draws, and a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots and fall a maximum of two. Only the top 11 seeds can win the first pick, while 12-16 cannot.
The first draw locks in the No. 1 pick (and potentially another pick). The second draw determines the remaining order.
Who has the best odds?
The Canucks have a 25.5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick. They are followed by the Blackhawks (13.5%), Rangers (11.5%), Calgary Flames (9.5%), and Toronto Maple Leafs (8.55).
Can the Flyers land the No. 1 pick?
No. Since the Flyers made the playoffs and are not among the 16 teams involved in the draws, they cannot land the No. 1 pick, or any pick in the top 16 for that matter, via the lottery process.
How many picks do the Flyers have in the NHL draft?
The Flyers are scheduled to have five picks in June’s draft, including a first-rounder. While the Flyers don’t know their exact draft slot, if they lose to Carolina, which leads 2-0 in the series, they will either pick 20th or 21st, depending on whether Anaheim advances or not.
The Flyers also hold a pick in the second round, third round, sixth round, and seventh round. They moved their fourth-rounder in the deal to acquire Trevor Zegras last June, and attached their fifth to Sean Walker to bring back a 2025 first from Colorado at the 2024 trade deadline.
When do the Flyers get the Scott Laughton pick?
Well, that depends on tonight’s draw ... and who you ask. As a refresher, the Flyers acquired forward prospect Nikita Grebenkin and a 2027 first-round pick from the Toronto Maple Leafs last March in exchange for depth center Scott Laughton, a 2025 fourth-rounder, and a sixth in 2027. Pretty self-explanatory, right? Not so fast.
On the same day, the Leafs completed a separate deal with Boston, trading center prospect Fraser Minten, a 2026 first-rounder, and a 2025 fourth for then-Bruins defenseman Brandon Carlo. But the 2026 first-round pick had a top-5 protected condition attached to it. At the time, this seemed like nothing more than a formality, as the Leafs were expected to be a contender and nowhere near the bottom five of the league.
Fast forward a year, and the Leafs finished with the league’s fifth-worst record thanks to several key injuries and general organizational disorder. That brings us to tonight’s lottery.
According to Puck Pedia, if the Leafs’ pick falls out of the top 5, which Tankathon calculates to a 58.2% chance, it will convey to Boston this year and the Flyers will receive Toronto’s 2027 first as initially scheduled. Easy.
But if Toronto’s pick lands within the top 5, that’s where things get confusing. Puck Pedia states that the 2027 pick will go directly to Philadelphia only if it is outside of the top 10. If it falls within the top 10, Toronto gets to choose to send it to either Philly or Boston, with the other getting a 2028 unprotected first.
The Flyers do not believe that to be the case and have told The Inquirer that they will receive Toronto’s first in 2027, no matter what, based on their trade with the Leafs being completed first. Stay tuned.
Who are the top players in the draft?
After some flip-flopping during the season, Penn State winger Gavin McKenna seems to have reclaimed his status as the consensus pick to go No. 1 overall. The Yukon-born phenom racked up 15 goals and 51 points in 35 games this season as a freshman in State College. Frölunda HC winger Ivar Stenberg, who had a standout World Juniors for Sweden, is not far behind after putting up a historic season for an 18-year-old in the Swedish Hockey League.
After that, the draft gets muddled, as defensemen Chase Reid, Alberts Šmits, Keaton Verhoeff, and Carson Carels, as well as centers Caleb Malholtra, Tynan Lawrence, and Viggo Viggo Björck, all have a chance to round out the top five. Barring a trade, the Flyers will not be picking from the cream of the crop in a draft for the first time since 2021.
When and where is the NHL draft?
The 2026 NHL draft will be held June 26–27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The draft will once again be decentralized, meaning the players have the option to attend, but most teams will be off-site and set up at more localized headquarters. Last season, the Flyers congregated and held a fan fest in Atlantic City for the event.
» READ MORE: Flyers Q&A: Brent Flahr talks Denver Barkey, Alex Bump, Jack Berglund, and the 2026 NHL draft