Immigrants are the ‘only reason’ Philly’s population is growing, analysis says

The nonpartisan Economy League of Greater Philadelphia issued an immigration analysis this week that on the surface might look like a boatload of numbers, but in fact offers fresh insight and a warning about the future.

The organization looked at immigration not just as the coming and going of people but also as a key part of the city’s economic infrastructure.

And it found that, in short, Philadelphia’s economic vitality depends more and more on foreign-born residents, whose growth has provided tentative population stability instead of the continuous decline that once afflicted the city.

Immigrants comprise nearly one in five workers and contribute $7.4 billion in consumer spending, filling critical roles in everything from research labs to restaurant kitchens.

Still, the analysis said, without ever mentioning President Donald Trump by name, “the federal policy pressures continue to mount,” and that puts some local gains at risk.

Here’s a look at some key aspects of the Economy League’s Leading Indicators report:

“It is the only reason we’ve grown,” said league executive director Jeff Hornstein. “It’s the only reason we don’t have population decline.”

The analysis said that without foreign-born residents, Philadelphia would be shrinking.

As of 2024, immigrants comprised 16% of the city population, about 251,000 residents, the primary engine of net population growth since 2000. The arrival of newcomers has been enough to offset the loss in native-born residents, which dropped by about 59,700 between 2010 and 2020.

“Philadelphia’s 21st-century demographic stabilization,” the analysis said, “is an immigration story.”

A lot. In Philadelphia, immigrants comprised nearly 20% of the workforce in 2024. That’s double the rate of Pennsylvania as a whole, where immigrants were 9% of the workforce. The city’s institutional anchors — its universities and hospitals — as well as established ethnic communities, serve as draws.

That year the city’s foreign-born residents, both documented and undocumented, spent an estimated $7.4 billion on goods and services and paid $2.3 billion in taxes ― including federal income taxes, payroll taxes, state income taxes, sales taxes, and property taxes.

Yes. Local healthcare services rely not just on doctors, the analysis showed, but also on immigrants across different jobs and skill levels. About 26% of all Pennsylvania physicians are foreign-born, and nationally the same is true for nearly 40% of nursing aides and home health aides.

In the Philadelphia region, foreign students earn 40% of doctoral degrees, the report said, and research institutions depend heavily on that talent. Traditionally these students transition from F-1 visas, to Optional Practical Training, then compete for H-1B visas that enable long-term employment.

That’s where things have gotten rough for immigrants, as in December the Trump administration halted processing for several groups of people and categories of applications, including those for anyone from any of the 19 countries covered in the spring travel ban.

The administration has also raised the possibility of reopening cases that were already approved by the government.

The city’s hospitality and restaurant trades also depend on foreign-born workers. Immigrants make up 25% to 30% of restaurant workers and 30% to 35% of hotel staff. At some restaurants the foreign-born staff can exceed 40%.

They do. A study coauthored by an MIT economist found that immigrants are about 80% more likely than native-born residents to found a company. Some suggest that’s because immigrants are more comfortable with risk, having already taken the chance of moving to a new country.

In Philadelphia, foreign-born entrepreneurs own roughly 30% of small businesses ― nearly twice their representation in the population. Those 47,800 businesses include everything from corner stores to tech startups.

It’s more like a warning. At 16%, Philadelphia’s foreign-born population exceeds the national average, which hovers around 13%. But traditional gateway cities like New York, Houston, Miami, and San Francisco maintain foreign-born populations as high as 35%.

Philadelphia, the analysis said, is “no longer an immigration laggard,” but it’s not yet competing with top-tier global cities for international talent.

Moreover, without sustained immigration, Philadelphia faces the prospect of renewed population decline. Native-born residents are aging, fertility remains below replacement levels, and U.S. domestic migration favors metro areas in the Sunbelt.

“Immigration provides the only plausible mechanism for population stability,” the study said, but federal policies that reduce legal immigration, slow visa processing, and intensify enforcement risk causing the opposite.

The question isn’t whether Philadelphia needs immigration ― the demographic math makes that undeniable, the study said. The question is whether policymakers will embrace supportive policies and investments.

“Given the stakes,” it said, “getting immigration policy right isn’t optional ― it’s existential.”