Philly’s population dropped for a second year in a row, census data show

In Philadelphia, it’s feeling a bit like 2014 — at least when it comes to the population count. That’s the last time the city had about 1.57 million residents.

Newly released census estimates say Philly lost more than 22,000 residents between July 2021 and July 2022, a 1.4% drop and the largest one-year decline since 1977, which saw a loss of about 23,800.

The drop is the second in a row, after more than a decade of growth for the city, which peaked at 1.6 million residents in 2020. Between 2020 and 2022, it’s estimated the city lost more than 33,000 residents.

Various factors have been blamed for the drop, mainly the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts say Philadelphia isn’t on its way to becoming a ghost town, and suggest not panicking over short-term data.

“One year change is not going to be a major impact, it’s the trend over time,” said Katie Martin, project director at Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia research and policy initiative. “We just have too few years of data at this point to say that this is a definitive trend.”

Still, the data, which may be adjusted, can be a preview of potential trends, which could affect tax revenues and federal funding.

Here are some takeaways from this year’s release:

The U.S. Census Bureau’s 12-month snapshot considers births, deaths, and the number of people moving in and out of counties to track population changes.

In Philadelphia, deaths remain slightly higher than they were before COVID-19 struck in 2020 and births have not quite rebounded to their pre-pandemic numbers. Still, births in the periods ending July 2021 and 2022 outnumbered deaths by more than 2,000, leaving the city at a net positive.

Domestic migration, meanwhile, continued to drive the city’s population loss.

International migration in the period ending July 2022 had a net increase of about 5,000 people from the previous year, slowly rebounding from Trump-era immigration policies. Martin said Philadelphia’s decade of growth was largely driven by foreign-born residents coming to the city.

Meanwhile, among people relocating domestically in the year ending July 2022, an estimated 32,500 more people moved out of Philadelphia than in, almost double the domestic migration loss from 2021.

The influx of immigrants couldn’t offset the net loss in domestic movers, so the city saw a net loss of about 25,000 people because of international and domestic migration.

Much has been written about the demographic shifts since the pandemic transformed the way we live and work. In the period ending July 2021, large metro areas’ losses turned into gains for counties that could offer sprawling green space.

This time, census numbers found the growth of smaller counties that benefited from the urban departures slowed. Larger counties that reported negative net domestic migration in 2021 saw smaller losses or their fortunes slightly turn. New York County, which is home to Manhattan, went from a domestic migration loss of 98,000 people in 2021 to a gain of about 2,900 in this year’s estimates.

Atenea Rosado, 32, said her move from West Mount Airy to New York City’s Washington Heights neighborhood in January 2022 was pandemic-inspired, though she didn’t exactly go in search of literal greener pastures as many did at the peak of shutdowns.

But lockdowns did make Rosado rethink her relationship with family and friends. Philly was close to New York City, until it wasn’t.

“Moving to New York City was not the most financially reasonable thing to do, but it was the most emotionally sound choice,” said Rosado. “I now can see them whenever I want.”

The changing demographics of her neighborhood also inspired her move. Rosado, who is Latina and Jewish, said the “original promise of a diverse and integrated neighborhood” was falling short as she saw Black neighbors getting displaced. When looking for a place to relocate, she intentionally chose where her “identities could thrive.”

For Marc Siry, 55, the move from Mount Airy to Madrid, Spain, in July 2021 came from a desire to be adventurous and create distance between his family and some uniquely American problems.

“Here it kind of feels like the pressure is off from the sort of U.S.-based anxiety that comes from the triple threat of health care, housing costs, and gun violence,” he said.

“Philadelphia, while it was a respite from some of that, was not immune to those issues.”

Others told The Inquirer they moved because of the direction they saw the city heading, which echoes a sentiment described by many residents who seek a change in energy when a new mayor takes office.

But these population numbers are estimates that are subject to adjustments.

“The truth of this dataset is kind of deceiving,” said Ben Gruswitz, who uses these type of data for socioeconomic and land-use analytics at the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.

“Everyone wants to talk about the latest year possible, but the latest year possible is the most inaccurate for what the estimate is telling you,” Gruswitz said.

When population estimates were released for the year ending July 2021, it was initially reported that the city lost close to 25,000 residents, all factors considered. A year later, that number has been adjusted to just over 11,000 residents. So it’s possible that this year’s numbers could also change.

Philly wasn’t the only local county to see a population decline, according to the new data. Bucks and Delaware Counties each saw small net drops in residents, while others saw at least some population gains.

Across Pennsylvania, Philadelphia is far from having the biggest pandemic losses, which mainly have played out in western counties. Some counties have seen larger percentage decreases in population between 2020 and 2022, compared with Philly’s 2.1% drop.

Based on current estimates, Philadelphia was one of the 10 U.S. counties with the largest population declines for the year ending July 2022, along with Los Angeles County and Cook County, Ill..

This is where Gruswitz reminds Philadelphians not to fret.

“There’s a lot, a lot of people choosing Philly,” Gruswitz said. “It just happens to be that there’s a slightly more amount of people that are also deciding Philly is not for me right now.”