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Eagles NFL draft preview: The final look at players the analysts have the Birds picking | Early Birds

This is it. The Eagles’ chance for meaningful progress.

South Carolina defensive back Jaycee Horn celebrating his second interception during the second half of an October game against Auburn in Columbia, S.C.
South Carolina defensive back Jaycee Horn celebrating his second interception during the second half of an October game against Auburn in Columbia, S.C.Read moreSean Rayford / AP

Good morning, Eagles fans! Our NFL draft countdown is fast approaching the 24-hour mark. Depending on when you’re reading this, we might already be there. I know some of you are too stressed about the possibility of Howie Roseman and Co. blowing it, but even the wary among you have to admit it’s an exciting time. The Eagles will have a chance to make meaningful, lasting progress toward improving the roster with the 11 picks they’ve stockpiled.

It’s a good time to let you know we’ll have a special edition of the newsletter Friday morning as well. Today, we’ll take one last look at whom the draft analysts have the Eagles taking in the first round.

If you like what you’re reading, tell your friends it’s free to sign up here​. I want to know what you think, what we should add, and what you want to read, so send me feedback by email or on Twitter @EJSmith94.

EJ Smith (earlybirds@inquirer.com)

On the clock

Mock draft season is reaching its peak hysteria as we speak, so it’s a perfect time for the final mock draft roundup of the offseason. Here’s whom the experts have the Eagles selecting. The only constant is general uncertainty about whom they’ll take.

Todd McShay, ESPN: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Philly can exhale: The Eagles moved back to No. 12 and still got one of the top four pass-catchers. Waddle is the most dangerous player in the class with the ball in his hands. — McShay

In a back-and-forth mock draft with fellow ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper, McShay took the speedy Alabama wideout one pick after the Giants took DeVonta Smith. Waddle would give the Eagles another injection of speed, although he would seemingly have a similar role to Jalen Reagor in the offense. Even though Reagor could have a resurgent sophomore campaign, that’s no reason to avoid drafting Waddle if he’s the top player on their board.

Peter King, NBC Sports: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

I think when the Eagles moved from 6 to 12 on March 29 in the trade with Miami, they hoped for three things: their choice of a top receiver, Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater, and one of the top two corners in the draft. By this mock, they’re all there. Nothing would surprise me — include a shallow trade-down, say, to New England at 15 if the Patriots are smitten with DeVonta Smith. Horn is my pick here because corner’s a significant need; the Eagles’ best (and priciest) corner, Darius Slay, gave up 77-percent completions last year, per Pro Football Focus, and there’s no other long-term solutions, at least not one who has played to that level, on the roster now. Horn’s a three-year starter in a throwing league, and the book on him is he’s uber-competitive and feisty. Sounds like a Philly guy already. — King

In King’s mock draft, the Eagles took Horn over offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and DeVonta Smith. Doing so would indicate a high prioritization of the cornerback position, something that we didn’t see as much during the previous coaching staff’s tenure. It would make sense, though, as Horn could give the Eagles a real chance at a shutdown corner in a few seasons.

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network: Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

This would be a dream scenario for the Eagles. After trading down to No. 12, they still land the top cornerback in the draft. — Jeremiah

Jeremiah’s mock draft from earlier this month had the Eagles taking Surtain over Horn, who went one pick later to the Los Angeles Chargers. Tying the top two cornerback prospects together for the duration of their respective careers would be an interesting, if not nerve-racking experience for Eagles fans.

Peter Schrager, NFL Network: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

Philadelphia trades back three spots, picks up another Day 2 pick (No. 46 from the Patriots) and still gets one of the top offensive linemen in the draft. The Eagles have so many picks in the next two drafts that they could be in Best Player Available mode, even if they end up staying at No. 12. — Schrager

It’s important to note Schrager has the Eagles trading back three spots, giving the Patriots the chance to take DeVonta Smith at 12, and taking the best offensive lineman left on the board at 15. Vera-Tucker is probably a guard at the next level, although he could be a very good one.

Trevor Sikkema, The Draft Network: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

From all I’ve read and heard, I am not so sure the Eagles will be in on DeVonta Smith given his measurables. On the other side, the vibe with them is that they’re very in on Horn. I think this is an easy bet with no top OT or Waddle on the board. — Sikkema

The concerns about Smith’s size are valid — no highly touted receiver prospect in recent memory has mirrored Smith’s height and weight combination. The Eagles said last week they believe good receivers come “in all shapes and sizes,” and Nick Sirianni has a track record of using smaller receivers in the X role of his offense, but all that could be lip service when push comes to shove.

Sam Monson, Pro Football Focus: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

The Eagles could go in several different directions here, including trading down again given the potential rebuild they are looking at. This defense has been at its best when it has rolled seven pass-rushers deep, and Kwity Paye would add to that rotation and give them positional flexibility to always be a threat in obvious rushing situations. After all, the likes of Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox aren’t getting any younger. — Monson

Paye is an athletic freak with a lot of upside, but No. 12 feels pretty rich for him considering it’s a weak edge-rusher class at the top and filled with quality options in the second half of the first round. Still, taking Paye would certainly track with Roseman’s draft tendencies.

What you need to know about the draft

  1. Still itching for more mock drafts? We, the Eagles beat writing crew, took our best guesses at what will happen Thursday. I’ve got the Eagles taking DeVonta Smith, Les Bowen has them going with Jaycee Horn. Jeff McLane also goes for Smith, and Paul Domowitch has them selecting Jaylen Waddle.

  2. The beat-writing crew also detailed 10 of the options for the Birds in the first round, rating the likelihood of each ending up in midnight green.

  3. If DeVonta Smith was watching the Eagles’ predraft news conference last week, he heard some good news. Yours truly details the Eagles’ apparent apathy toward the numbers Smith sees when he steps on the scale.

  4. The last time the Eagles selected 12th in the draft, they did quite well, taking Fletcher Cox. Bowen explores whether they’ll stand pat and try for a similar result Thursday, or trade out of the spot.

  5. No one really believes the Eagles should take an offensive lineman in the first round, right? David Murphy argues the minority pulling for a pass protector have a point.

  6. T.J. Furman and I took a look at the historical data to compile a new way of evaluating draft capital in a two-part series. In the first part, we concluded the Eagles got solid value when trading back to the 12th pick. In the second, we looked at the Carson Wentz trade through an analytical lens.

  7. Marcus Hayes offered up his mock draft, which is an Eagles-focused preview of the first two days of the draft. Spoiler: He’s got them taking a quarterback in the top 100.

  8. Hayes also has a message for the “Fire Howie” crowd: Even if he blows this draft, he ain’t going anywhere anytime soon.

  9. While we’re at it, Mike Sielski has a message for the part of the fan base that would like to see Jeffrey Lurie refrain from influencing the team’s draft decisions so much: Good luck stopping him.

  10. In recent years, the Eagles hit on one Day 3 edge rusher and missed on another. McLane recounts what went right for them with Josh Sweat and what doomed them with Shareef Miller.

  11. The Eagles have a league-high 11 picks in the draft this year, but five of them are in the sixth and seventh rounds. As Domo explains, it’s a bad year to have so many late-round picks.

  12. One of those late-round prospects is Shaka Toney, the Penn State linebacker who, as Joe Juliano details, is staying calm as the life-changing weekend looms.

  13. Domo’s position-by-position draft preview series with NFL Network analyst Ben Fennell is complete. Study up on any of them by clicking the position you’re interested in: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Offensive Tackle | Interior Offensive Line | Edge Rusher | Interior Defensive Line | Linebacker | Cornerback | Safety

From the mailbag

What kind of draft pick compensation do you think we can get for Zach Ertz? Could he maybe fetch a 4th rounder? Or do you think he could get used to move back into the top 10 of the first round? — from Dan May (@dannmaal) on Twitter

Good question, Dan. It’s highly likely that this weekend will be Zach Ertz’s last one on the Eagles roster, but what might the Eagles get in return? I wouldn’t expect the compensation to be very good — even a fourth-rounder sounds like it could be a little high. If the Eagles could have gotten a fourth-rounder for Ertz, I’d imagine they would have already taken the deal just to move on.

Especially now that it’s been floated that Ertz would be released if a suitor doesn’t emerge, I don’t know how much other teams are willing to give up. My guess is a pick later on Day 3 would be sufficient for both sides, and I think it will happen this weekend.