Here come the Dodgers | Extra Innings in Red October

So the Los Angeles Dodgers are pretty good, right? The Reds didn’t help out much but they did help provide a blueprint of how the Phillies could take out the Dodgers in the National League division series. The countdown to Saturday is on.

P.S. I’m writing this newsletter every day of Red October. Get it daily by signing up for free here.

Also in this edition:

— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

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I felt like I was sitting in the Millennium Falcon approaching the Death Star the other night while watching the Dodgers bash homers in Game 1 vs. the Reds.

That’s no moon.

We knew the Dodgers were good but jumping out to an 8-0 lead felt like a different level. They have a $476 million payroll with a roster Scott Lauber described earlier this week to have “more stars than a planetarium.” And now the Phillies have to play them. How do you compete with that?

Well, the guys in the Falcon soon learned that the Death Star had a weakness. And so do the Dodgers. It might just take the perfect shot through an exhaust port to pull it off.

If you stayed up to watch Game 1, you saw how the Reds scored three runs against the Dodgers’ bullpen to make the final score a bit more respectable. It happened again in Game 2. And if you remember last month, the Phillies won twice at Dodger Stadium by cracking the Dodgers’ bullpen. The Dodgers have a bullpen problem and that could be the recipe for taking down this Death Star.

The Phillies will face Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the first three games of the NLDS. The series could be decided by who comes in after them. Here’s the plans I found in an Astromech droid: run up the starter’s pitch count, bide your time, keep the game close, and pounce on the Dodgers’ bullpen.

Ohtani has yet to throw a pitch this season in the seventh inning and it would be surprising if the Dodgers pushed him much further in Game 1. So the Phillies, like they did when they faced Ohtani last month, should get a chance Saturday against the bullpen.

The key will be making sure the game is still close when they do. The Reds were down eight runs in the eighth inning Tuesday night when the bullpen door opened. No bueno. The Phils were down 4-0 last month in the fifth inning and rallied against the bullpen. They did it again the next night when Emmett Sheehan — the bulk pitcher who followed an opener — left the game with a two-run lead in the seventh.

Tanner Scott has been shaky in the closer role, Blake Treinen had a rough September, and the Dodgers needed three relievers in Game 1 vs. the Reds to finish an inning that started with an eight-run lead. The bullpen has been a weakness all season and could prove to be what topples a star-studded roster.

But it will also be a different unit for the NLDS as Dave Roberts should have some interesting options, especially now that the Dodgers can navigate the five-game series with three starting pitchers. Roki Sasaki returned in September in a relief role and hit triple digits in two scoreless appearances. Clayton Kershaw should be in the bullpen and starters Tyler Glasnow and Sheehan could be options. Sheehan’s command was so poor as a reliever in Game 2 that he was removed in the middle of an at-bat with the bases loaded.

The Dodgers have better arms to use in October. But none of them are as dangerous as Ohtani, Snell, and Yamamoto. So the Phillies will gladly take their chances against them. Getting to the bullpen could be their best route forward. Use the force.

As the Phillies prepare to open the postseason, there’s no better time to sit down with the greatest player in franchise history. Mike Schmidt joins “Phillies Extra” to share his thoughts on the team’s quest to win the World Series, Kyle Schwarber’s big season, Pete Rose’s Hall of Fame chances, and more. Watch here.

🐐 The G.O.A.T.: Mike Schmidt joined Scott Lauber on Phillies Extra this week. He knows something about how to win in October.

🖌️ The artist: Harrison Bader has been painting since he was a kid and it’s helped shape his game.

🌉 Bridge to Duran: The most important outs for the Phillies this month could be in the middle innings.

⚾ Not a game: The ballpark was packed on Wednesday night for an October practice. The real show starts soon.

Dave Dombrowski said the bye is an advantage for the Phillies and it’s hard to fault his thinking as the break allowed the Phillies to align their rotation for the NLDS and give Trea Turner some extra time to heal his hamstring.

But the bye hasn’t always been an advantage.

This is the fourth year of the current playoff format where the top two seeds in each league advance to the division series while the other four teams in each league meet in best-of-three series. So far, the teams with the bye have won six of their 12 division series matchups. Three teams have advanced to the World Series after starting with a bye and two of those teams have won it all.

The Phillies were the first team to clinch a division title this season as they wrapped up the NL East with 11 games to play. The Phils didn’t coast to the finish as they did have a chance until the final weekend to catch Milwaukee for the NL’s No. 1 seed.

It was the sixth time in the current playoff format that a division was clinched with 10 or more games left. Of those five teams, four of them lost in the division series after earning a bye. The other — the 2022 Astros — won it all. I guess it’s either all or nothing for the Phils.

The scene at last night’s intrasquad scrimmage at Citizens Bank Park. The concourses were packed, the seats were filled, and everything felt like it was a real game. It was the perfect way to start Red October. My son asked me when we parked who the Phillies were playing. Well, it’s a bit confusing to a 3-year-old that the Phillies are playing the Phillies. Everything else was great. They even gave Duran his entrance. Well done, Phillies. The final attendance number was 31,343 fans for a practice. Well done, Philly.

Who’s starting Game 2? We know Cristopher Sánchez is starting Game 1 and my guess is Jesús Luzardo, who started Wednesday’s intrasquad game, gets the nod on Monday. Take away his back-to-back brutal outings on May 31 and June 5 and his season ERA lowers by nearly a run to 3.03, which would have been the 13th-best in baseball. He had the same amount of strikeouts this season as Paul Skenes (both made 32 starts) and ended his regular season with seven shutout innings against the Marlins. He gave up four runs to the Dodgers last month but two of those runs came in the eighth inning. His job on Monday would be to get through six innings and let Thomson lean on his bullpen for the rest. Luzardo started for Miami vs. the Phillies in the 2023 postseason at Citizens Bank Park. He knows what the ballpark will feel like. This time, he’ll have the fans with him.

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