Can the Phillies move on? History says no | Extra Innings in Red October

We knew the late innings would decide this series, especially with how both managers utilized their bullpens with the limited options they have.

In Game 1, advantage goes to the Dodgers as Dave Roberts pushed the right buttons while the Phils imploded in a 5-3 defeat on Saturday.

The Phillies say it’s just one game, but they’ve never won a postseason series without winning Game 1. It’s going to be an uphill climb.

Also in this edition:

— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

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David Robertson said it’s just one game. Harrison Bader said the Phillies still have a lot of baseball ahead of them. Brandon Marsh said the Phillies have to just move on from the loss. And Kyle Schwarber said the NLDS was never going to be easy.

But it’s been easier said than done for a team to rally — especially the Phillies — after losing Game 1. If the Phillies reach the NLCS, they’ll make history by winning a postseason series for the first time after losing the first game.

The Phillies have won 15 postseason series in their history. They won Game 1 in all of them. The Phils have never advanced in the postseason after dropping Game 1. Remember in 2022? The Phillies danced on their own because they won Game 1 in St. Louis, Atlanta, and San Diego. They even won Game 1 in Houston before fading in the World Series. In the current Division Series format, the team that wins Game 1 advances 74% of the time.

“It’s just important that we flush this,” Marsh said. “And come back Monday with some controlled, correct aggression. You know, anger.”

The Phillies lost Game 1 last October against the Mets — in a very similar fashion — before bowing out in four games. This is an even tougher challenge as the Dodgers are a much better team than the 2024 Mets.

The Phils’ odds to win the series, according to FanGraphs, dropped from 42.1% to 25.6% following the loss. But the odds seemed to swing even more than that when Cristopher Sánchez stumbled in the sixth and Matt Strahm gave up a three-run homer in the seventh. The series felt lost as the defending champs refused to go away.

And it’s not going to ease up as Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L.A.’s starters for Games 2 and 3) combined for 18 strikeouts and four earned runs over 13⅔ innings vs. the Reds in the wild-card series. Now those arms face a Phillies lineup that received just one hit (a Bryce Harper single) in 13 at-bats on Saturday from the top four hitters. To advance, they’ll have to turn the page. They’ve never done it before.

“Every team that’s in the postseason at this point has some level of bouncing back in their DNA,” Bader said. “That’s why they’re still standing after all these really good teams and talented players have fallen off the edge. Whether it’s a win or a loss, I think how you respond is what’s most important.”

💪 Emptying the tank: Harrison Bader is dealing with a groin injury, but the slugger has every intention of battling through it.

👀 Living proof: These are some of the most viral moments from Saturday’s Game 1.

⚾ Failure to launch: Marcus Hayes says it’s fair to factor Rob Thomson’s Game 1 pitching decisions into the equation.

⭐ Shake it off: The Phillie Phanatic was dressed as Taylor Swift in Saturday’s game, and we have the video to prove it.

So much for that Dodgers bullpen. Dave Roberts used two starting pitchers — Tyler Glasnow and Rōki Sasaki — to record eight of the nine outs needed after Shohei Ohtani was finished. The Dodgers’ postseason bullpen is a much different concoction than the one that limped through the season.

Glasnow had not pitched in relief since 2018 and was in the bathroom when the call came from the dugout for him to warm up. It didn’t matter. He was excellent, especially with his strikeout against Kyle Schwarber in a pivotal spot in the eighth.

Rob Thomson also could have used starters as relievers in Game 1, as Ranger Suárez and Aaron Nola were in the bullpen, but he said he didn’t consider using either.

Thomson’s decision to ride with Sánchez in the sixth inning after Freddie Freeman walked and Tommy Edman singled. Sánchez was at 92 pitches and losing command. He seemed to hit a wall. At the moment, I said Edman should be Sánchez’s final batter. Then he singled to bring up Kiké Hernández. It seemed like an easy call to go to the bullpen as David Robertson was warm. Thomson instead kept Sánchez in and the life was soon sucked out of Citizens Bank Park. The Phils still had a one-run lead but it sure felt like a loss after Hernández’s two-run single.

“He wasn’t at a ton of pitches but these games are draining,” J.T. Realmuto said. “I looked up at one point in the fourth inning and I was exhausted. I couldn’t believe it was only the fourth inning so I can’t imagine what a starting pitcher feels like.”

How do the Phillies replace Bader if he’s unable to play on Monday? Does Nick Castellanos enter the lineup since the Phils are facing a lefty? I think so. Here’s my guess at Monday’s outfield if Bader can’t go: Castellanos in right, Marsh in center, and Weston Wilson in left field. Max Kepler, a left-hander, was in the lineup last month when Blake Snell dominated the Phils in L.A. He went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and started just five games this season against left-handed starters. I’d expect Thomson to play the platoon on Monday and use the right-handed Wilson in left.

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