GM meetings takeaways: The J.T. Realmuto question, competition for Kyle Schwarber, and more

LAS VEGAS — J.T. Realmuto marched into free agency in 2020 as the consensus best catcher in baseball and set out to get paid accordingly.

He can’t make that claim anymore.

But just as the catcher-record $23.1 million average annual salary that Realmuto received from the Phillies five years ago symbolized his stature among backstops, he may be eyeing a similar sign of respect this time around for his longevity and durability at the sport’s most physically demanding position.

In this case, it could take the form of a three-year guarantee.

» READ MORE: Free-agent outlook: J.T. Realmuto will be 35, but he remains as valuable as ever to the Phillies

Realmuto will be 35 next season. According to the database at Spotrac, there are only two instances of a catcher getting more than a two-year deal at age 35 or older: Jorge Posada (four years, $52.4 million from the Yankees in 2007) and Yadier Molina (three years, $60 million from the Cardinals in 2018).

Posada and Molina were valued most by the teams that knew them best. The same may hold true for Realmuto. Phillies pitchers, notably Zack Wheeler, swear by his game-calling; manager Rob Thomson marvels at his preparation. He’s practically an extension of pitching coach Caleb Cotham.

“I can’t put a dollar sign on it,” Thomson said last month, “but it’s significant.”

It probably isn’t quite enough to keep Realmuto atop the salary leaderboard for catchers. Not with the four-year decline in his offense (.820 OPS in 2022 to .762 in 2023, .751 in 2024, .700 this year).

Two weeks ago, Royals franchise catcher Salvador Perez, 10 months older than Realmuto, signed a two-year, $25 million extension — and that was after a 30-homer, .729 OPS season. In essence, Perez took a lower salary in exchange for Kansas City’s offer of job security in 2027.

Realmuto, who was ineligible for the $22.025 million one-year free-agent qualifying offer because he received it previously, likely will have to make a similar tradeoff for a multiyear deal. But his value has long been tied to his extreme workload behind the plate, and he’s coming off a career-high 132 starts this season.

If Perez got a two-year commitment, Realmuto will surely find two-year offers from catcher-needy contenders. (The Padres leap to mind; or the Giants, run by former catcher Buster Posey and with Realmuto’s former agent, Jeff Berry, as a senior advisor.) The winning bidder may separate itself by gritting its teeth and stretching to three years, or at least offering an attainable 2028 option.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper, Phillie for life? Scott Boras insists the star and the team are still on the same page

At the general managers’ meetings this week in Las Vegas, Dave Dombrowski reiterated that the Phillies’ priority is to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and Realmuto. If both return, the offseason will zig in one direction; if one or the other departs, it will zag in another.

But the Phillies are planning for contingencies, especially at catcher, where the free-agent alternatives are strikingly unappealing. If they don’t have Realmuto behind the plate, they will probably have to trade for his replacement.

“If that happened, I don’t know what we would do, but we’ve explored options, had conversations to see who might be available, who may not be available,“ said Dombrowski, the Phillies president of baseball operations.

”So, at least you’ve done all that work, so now you have a pulse of, OK, let’s pick up the phone and see if we can get something done. I think we have a pretty good pulse of that already.“

Could seldom-used backup catcher Rafael Marchán handle a heavier workload? Probably, Dombrowski said, before acknowledging a question about the 26-year-old.

“He could catch 120 games because he’s a very good catcher and thrower. What would he hit during those 120 games?” Dombrowski said of Marchán, 1-for-22 through Wednesday in winter ball in Venezuela after posting a .587 OPS in only 118 plate appearances this season. “That’s what I’m just not sure.”

Maybe the Twins will trade Ryan Jeffers one year before free agency. The Braves could unload Sean Murphy, who batted .199 this season and is owed $45 million through 2028. Orioles general manager Mike Elias told reporters that Adley Rutschman won’t be traded amid speculation to the contrary.

» READ MORE: The Phillies intend to move on from Nick Castellanos. Could a swap for Nolan Arenado be an option?

Regardless, Dombrowski said the Phillies will be ready to pivot.

“What always ends up being tricky is, if J.T. is our No. 1 alternative, well, then when do plans B, C, and D start disappearing?” Dombrowski said. “So, that’s where we need to have a pulse on those types of things so we don’t get caught short.”

A few other observations from the GM meetings, because not everything that happened in Vegas stayed there:

In outlining the Red Sox’s needs, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow listed middle-of-the-order power. The free-agent market happens to feature two prominent sluggers: Schwarber and Pete Alonso.

So, does Boston prefer a left-handed hitter or a righty?

As it stands, the Red Sox’s lineup tilts left-handed. And because the Green Monster looms in left field, only 310 feet from home plate, Fenway Park is traditionally favorable to right-handed pull hitters.

Perhaps, then, Alonso would be the better fit.

» READ MORE: Where will Kyle Schwarber land? Sizing up the Phillies’ competition in the free-agent sweepstakes

“Guys who can hit the ball out of any ballpark can hit the ball out of any ballpark,” Breslow said. “But there are certainly profiles that fit Fenway better than others. We just want to make sure that we’ve thought through what the ballpark effects might be before making any decisions.”

Breslow is surely aware of Schwarber’s numbers at Fenway: 31-for-90 (.344), 15 homers, .661 slugging in 113 plate appearances. And Red Sox manager Alex Cora raves about Schwarber’s impact after being acquired at the trade deadline in 2021.

Another Schwarber fan: Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who publicly urged the Reds this week to sign the Middletown, Ohio, native. But Cincinnati’s payroll was only about $119 million this year, and general manager Nick Krall said it “will be about the same” in 2026. In that case, there won’t be much cash to land Schwarber.

Last year, Blake Snell arrived on the free-agent market with innings totals of 128⅔, 128, 180, and 104 in the previous four seasons, prompting reasonable skepticism that he could stay healthy for a full year.

But agent Scott Boras pointed instead to Snell’s record of post-All-Star break dominance, notably a 2.04 second-half ERA from 2021 to ’24 and sold the Dodgers, who forked over a five-year, $182 million contract.

» READ MORE: Free-agent outlook: How the market will shape up for Ranger Suárez

“He’s a trophy pitcher,” Boras said this week. “He’s going to pitch well for you when it matters most. And most teams didn’t buy into that theory. … There’s a lot of attention to having a true No. 1 talent be available at the most important periods. We don’t look at this anymore as a season. What we look at is, how [do] we potentiate our optimum talent at the right time.”

Consider that a hint of the sales pitch that Boras will make this winter with another free-agent lefty: Ranger Suárez.

Suárez totaled a career-high 157⅓ innings this year for the Phillies. He hasn’t had serious injuries, but he also hasn’t made 30 starts in a season.

Yet Suárez typically has a dominant 10- or 12-start stretch within a season. And his 1.48 ERA in the postseason ranks 12th among all pitchers who have accumulated at least 30 playoff innings.

Boras holds a media session each year at the GM meetings in which he delivers a pun-filled pitch for his high-profile clients. Suárez was featured this year, with Boras emphasizing the 30-year-old’s pinpoint control and playoff track record.

“Suárez has got true four-pitch command,” Boras said. “He’s really what you’d call the ‘Zone Ranger.’ … If you’re interested in acquiring a postseason pitcher that has proven himself, I would suggest you don’t want to miss the Suárez postseason soiree, no doubt.”

The Phillies haven’t shut the door on bringing back Suárez, although they have other priorities. They did make him a qualifying offer, which could impact his market. Boras is known for advising a short-term “pillow” contract later in the offseason when he’s unable to find a long, nine-figure deal. The Phillies will monitor the situation.

Four months later, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey recounted the talks that led to the deadline trade of star closer Jhoan Duran to the Phillies.

“We were very clear with teams that had interest — and there were a number of them — that we were going to need to get some major league value back and impact in a prospect," Falvey said. “That conversation with a few clubs pretty much shut the door. Some teams would say, ‘We’re not going to do that for a reliever.’”

In particular, Falvey said most teams refused to move a top 100 prospect, a sacrifice that he said is “super rare.”

Not the Phillies.

Falvey said Dombrowski made clear “who was on limits and who wasn’t.” The Phillies wouldn’t budge on Andrew Painter, according to multiple sources at the time. But when the Twins expressed interest in teenage catcher Eduardo Tait — “We think he really does have tremendous upside,” Falvey said — the teams saw an opportunity for a match.

» READ MORE: ‘You’ve got a closer.’ How the Phillies nabbed Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader at the trade deadline.

The clincher for Minnesota came when the Phillies agreed to include Mick Abel.

“To also get a young starting pitcher who we really like, who we saw mature even in the short time with us and pitched well in Philly at the end of the year, it was like, this is really exciting,” Falvey said. “If we’ve gotten ourselves an upside starting catcher and a guy who we think can pitch in the middle of the rotation, with maybe some upside beyond that, it’s kind of a hard [trade] to turn away from.

“If we had not gotten that level of return of quality, I think we’re not having this conversation.”

Duran was among a 10-player deadline purge that changed the Twins’ organizational direction. But Falvey remains optimistic about their 2026 chances, mainly because Joe Ryan and Pablo López lead the starting rotation.

Well, for now.

Pitching-needy teams will try to pry away both pitchers, who are under control through 2027. And if the Twins bite, rivals will wonder if All-Star center fielder Byron Buxton will change his mind about waiving his no-trade clause. The Athletic, citing a source, reported this week that he might.

If so, the Phillies would be at the front of the line to make another trade offer that the Twins can’t refuse.