What if Kyle Schwarber signs with the Reds? Here’s what the Phillies’ backup plan might look like

ORLANDO — These things could all wind up being true:

Hey, it’s possible. Stranger things have happened in the big, wide world of free agency, especially when a player realizes the chance to bat in the middle of his hometown team’s lineup for a nine-figure payday.

» READ MORE: Where will Kyle Schwarber land? Sizing up the Phillies’ competition in the free-agent sweepstakes

Schwarber grew up about 30 miles northeast of Cincinnati in Middletown, Ohio. He goes back in the offseason with his wife and two children; they’re expecting a third. His uniform number — 12, just like with the Phillies — is retired at Middletown High School. His roots run deep.

And if the ascendant Reds, who just made the playoffs in a full (non-COVID) season for the first time since 2013, have a prayer of signing Schwarber, those are the reasons.

“He could fit on any team,” Reds manager Terry Francona said Monday during a break in baseball’s winter meetings at the Signia by Hilton. “I mean, he’s going to score over 100 [runs], he’s going to drive in over 100. He’s a team leader. He’s a great guy. And I’m not in the minority saying that.”

It isn’t a level playing field. Under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have a top-five payroll. The Reds spent $126.5 million against the luxury tax this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and plan to be in that range again, club president Nick Krall said last month.

Schwarber reportedly has in hand a four-year offer from the Pirates, who spend even less than the Reds and were 12 games worse in the standings. The Red Sox are looking for a power hitter but prefer righty-swinging Pete Alonso, MLB sources said. The big-spending Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Astros don’t need a designated hitter.

» READ MORE: ‘Phillies Extra’ Q&A: Kevin Long on how it would be ‘devastating’ if Kyle Schwarber leaves, and more

Maybe the Mets are serious about Schwarber. But if their reported interest is merely to gain leverage in their talks with Alonso, the Phillies almost certainly won’t be outbid, which explains why the presumption throughout this resort hotel in the shadow of Disney World remains that Schwarber will end up back in South Philly. Besides, he’s close with hitting coach Kevin Long and has unfinished business.

It’s little wonder, then, that Dombrowski said he feels “optimism” that Schwarber will come back.

Unless, of course, he feels the pull to go home.

Regardless, it’s been five weeks since free agency began. The Phillies gave Schwarber — and centerpiece catcher J.T. Realmuto, too — space to find their best offers before circling back.

Surely, they will soon need clarity from them.

“Yeah, and I think that we’ve properly expressed that,” Dombrowski said. “I want those guys to know how much we respect them, how much we would like to have them back, all that. But there’s a time frame, too. It doesn’t mean you have to do something else, but at some point you need to move some things forward.

“I’m not saying we’re sprinting forward with a lot of different things. But that’s been properly communicated. And I think we’re prepared to shift if we need to.”

But what would a shift away from Schwarber look like?

For weeks, the Phillies have discussed it. Just in case.

A few options:

Alonso: Since 2021, he has slugged .504 with 195 homers and a 134 OPS-plus. (Schwarber has slugged .514 with 219 homers and a 136 OPS-plus.) Alonso, 31, is nearly two years younger than Schwarber. He would be a righty-hitting counterbalance to Bryce Harper and could switch off with Harper between first base and DH.

Oh, and wouldn’t it be something if the Phillies and Mets essentially swap free-agent sluggers?

» READ MORE: Winter meetings preview: The outlook for Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, a potential trade, and more

Kyle Tucker: Just like when Trea Turner came along in free agency three years ago to fit the Phillies’ shortstop need, Tucker would do the same in right field. But because he’s younger (29 next month) than Schwarber and Alonso, the price could rise above $400 million. The Phillies’ interest hinges on Schwarber’s decision.

Cody Bellinger: Like Tucker, he would solidify the outfield. The 30-year-old is an elite defender, a good base runner, and a power bat from the left side of the plate. But he’s also three years from being non-tendered by the Dodgers. Last year, he opted into his contract with the Cubs rather than testing free agency and got traded to the Yankees for a middling reliever. Buyer beware?

Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman: Positionally, they would fit only if the Phillies unload Alec Bohm. Bichette is younger (28 in March) and more dynamic but hasn’t played third base, and the Phillies aren’t moving Turner off shortstop. Bregman, 32 in March, would help replace Schwarber’s leadership quotient. But he also faded some down the stretch last season.

The Phillies have discussed them all. They’ve also been involved in a trade market that MLB sources say is more hyperactive than usual, perhaps because teams are wary of long free-agent deals amid the likelihood of a labor war after the 2026 season.

Schwarber remains the Phillies’ priority. The Phillies are still the favorite to sign him. But while they await the color of the smoke that rises from Schwarber’s Ohio home, they’re making contingency plans.

“It’s hard to really tell people 100% what you’re looking to do when a lot of your team is in free agency,“ Dombrowski said. ”That’s what we’ve been trying to clarify. We’ve had a lot of conversations, but some of them haven’t moved forward in some cases. Now, if we need to, we would move forward.”

Just in case.