Winter meetings preview: The outlook for Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, a potential trade, and more

As free agents, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are entitled to shop around for the best offers.

The Phillies have given them space.

“It’s really more their process than it is ours at this time in the sense that they set the time frame,” Dave Dombrowski said. “They know we have interest, and then it’s up to them to kind of say, ‘OK, we’re ready to move forward,’ or not, whenever that ends up happening.”

That was three weeks ago. Schwarber and Realmuto have had five weeks to browse the market. By now, they have a decent idea of what’s there for them beyond the Delaware Valley. The Phillies probably do, too.

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And with the baseball world set to gather again Sunday night in Orlando, Fla., for the three-day winter meetings, it might finally be time for all parties to circle back to one another. In the shadow of the Magic Kingdom, of all places, the fantasyland of rumors about which teams are curious about which players will give way to a better sense of reality about whether Schwarber and Realmuto will return or move on.

The Phillies haven’t hidden their strong desire to keep both. Even though Schwarber will be 33 and Realmuto 35, and they’re central to a team that made the playoffs four years in a row but stubbed its toe in October, Dombrowski described them as “very important” and said they “mean a lot to the organization.”

With the exception of Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, owner John Middleton hasn’t lost out on a free agent that he’s wanted since the “stupid money” winter of 2018-19. And free agents have wanted to play in Philly over the last half-decade because of the culture set by Schwarber, Realmuto, et al.

No wonder most of the industry expects Schwarber and Realmuto to find their way back to the corner of Pattison and Darien streets.

But even if it feels like almost a fait accompli, the mission for their agents is to get offers that will at least drive up the price. Maybe they’ve done that. Maybe not.

Schwarber’s market is especially fascinating because it lacks most of the high-payroll teams. The Dodgers’ designated hitter is Shohei Ohtani, only the best player on the planet. The Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton) and Astros (Yordan Alvarez) are set at DH, too. George Springer had a career renaissance as a DH for the Blue Jays, who are in on seemingly every marquee free agent except Schwarber. The Cubs appear to be focused on pitching.

The Red Sox want to add a middle-of-the-order bat, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said last month, and Alex Cora loved managing Schwarber in 2021. But given their lineup’s lefty lean and Fenway Park’s dimensions, righty-hitting Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman might be better fits. And Boston doesn’t spend money like it once did, either.

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The Reds’ interest in bringing Schwarber home to southwest Ohio is real, multiple sources confirmed this week. It makes sense for a young team that is rich in starting pitching but lacking power and veteran leadership. Asked in July about the prospect of being courted by his childhood team, Schwarber said this: “I think it’d be awesome.”

But the Reds intend to keep their payroll in the $120 million range, president of baseball operations Nick Krall told reporters last month, leaving them with about $20 million to spend for 2026. Schwarber figures to cost at least $30 million per year.

And even if they had the cash, spending big for free agents isn’t in the Reds’ organizational DNA. They’ve done only two nine-figure contracts in their history, and Joey Votto and Homer Bailey were extensions. Their largest free-agent contracts: Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos, both four years, $64 million.

That leaves, well, who? Various reports have linked Schwarber to the Giants and Pirates (seriously).

The Mets are “in the mix” for Schwarber, at least according to an ESPN.com report. It’s plausible as a backup plan if New York doesn’t re-sign Alonso, although president of baseball operations David Stearns emphasized run prevention as the team’s chief offseason focus. Schwarber doesn’t help there.

But the best way for Schwarber’s agents to hike the price on the Phillies might be to claim interest from the rival Mets, owned by Steve Cohen, the wealthiest man in baseball. And the Mets could attempt to gain leverage over Alonso by suggesting they’d pivot to Schwarber.

In any case, the Phillies remain the favorite in the Schwarber derby.

“You have the owner who wants him, you have Dave Dombrowski who wants him, you have the coaching staff, you have [manager] Rob Thomson, you have a fan base — everybody involved here wants [him] to be back, including Kyle — so what does it come down to?“ hitting coach Kevin Long, who is close with Schwarber, said on The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. ”What’s his market value, and are we willing to give him his market value? And I think the answer is yes to that.

“I think it would be devastating to this organization and this fan base and everybody involved if he wasn’t a Phillie.”

The last five weeks have been about establishing market value for Schwarber and Realmuto. Next week might finally be time for the Phillies to meet it.

A few other thoughts leading into the winter meetings:

Two of the most intriguing offseason moves so far were one-for-one trades of major leaguers.

The Orioles swapped four years of control over gifted but often-injured pitcher Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for walk-year outfielder Taylor Ward. Then, the Mets dealt popular outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for second baseman Marcus Semien in a change-the-mix move.

And there’s more to come.

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Across the sport, the trade market is hyperactive, multiple team officials said this week, perhaps because some clubs are wary of signing free agents to multiyear contracts amid labor uncertainty beyond 2026.

Once again, Alec Bohm‘s name will come up in the Phillies’ conversations. But they couldn’t agree on his value in trade talks last winter, and it figures to be even lower now that the third baseman is one season from free agency.

Lefty reliever Matt Strahm could be another potential chip, especially after Dombrowski volunteered in an end-of-year news conference that he declined to do pitcher fielding drills before the postseason.

Rivals believe the Phillies prefer trading from their major league roster rather than the farm system after moving teenage shortstop Starlyn Caba (for Jesús Luzardo) and catcher Eduardo Tait and right-hander Mick Abel (for Jhoan Duran) within the last calendar year. Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford are thought to be largely off limits, with Painter and Crawford ticketed for the opening-day roster and Miller close behind.

As long as the Phillies cling to that trio, it’s difficult to see them matching up with the Diamondbacks for second baseman Ketel Marte, the Red Sox for outfielder Jarren Duran, or especially the Twins for center fielder Byron Buxton, if Buxton decides to waive his no-trade clause.

But maybe there’s a trade to be made for someone like Astros center fielder Jake Meyers, a solid defender who batted .292 with a 103 OPS-plus this season and is reportedly available.

A year ago, the Phillies weren’t focused on starting pitching at the winter meetings. But they traded for Luzardo a few weeks later, and it wound up as their best offseason move.

Just something to keep in mind.

Because although the rotation remains the strength of the roster even amid the expected departure of free agent Ranger Suárez, there are questions. Aaron Nola is coming off an injury-interrupted season in which he posted a 6.01 ERA. Painter’s prospect shine isn’t quite as luminescent after he struggled in triple A.

Oh, and although Zack Wheeler is close to throwing a ball again, a source said this week, the recovery from thoracic outlet decompression surgery isn’t always a linear process.

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And Dombrowski, who values starting pitching as much as any executive in the sport, recently noted the drop-off after Cristopher Sánchez, Luzardo, Wheeler, Nola, Taijuan Walker, and Painter.

“We don’t have a lot of starting pitching depth, so that’s something that we have to be cognizant of,” he said. “It’s not our highest priority, but I can’t say that we wouldn’t [add another starter]. That doesn’t necessarily mean top of the market, but where does that fit in? Because you never have enough starting pitching.”

After making a bid for Yamamoto two years ago, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Phillies show interest in Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. Or maybe they will be opportunistic in the trade market again.

One other bit of winter-meetings business: The Phillies are still looking for a bench coach. Don Mattingly remains a leading candidate, if he’s interested in returning to the dugout after leaving the Blue Jays’ staff after the World Series.