MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, union head Tony Clark meet, as more spring-training games get canceled

Welcome to Deal-or-“Disaster” Weekend — to use commissioner Rob Manfred’s word — for Major League Baseball.

Either MLB and the Players Association will have a breakthrough on core economic issues to push collective bargaining talks closer to an agreement by the league’s avowed Monday deadline, or Manfred will announce the cancellation of games and the cropping of the 162-game regular season.

It’s that simple, and the stakes couldn’t possibly be higher.

Eighty-six days after the owners locked out the players, on the fifth consecutive day of in-person negotiations, the sides finally appeared to act with appropriate urgency Friday. They met for more than five hours at a spring-training ballpark in Jupiter, Fla., pinballing between the bargaining table and their respective caucuses, according to sources familiar with the situation. They didn’t adjourn until after the sun set, shortly before 7 p.m.

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Manfred, absent from previous sessions, made an appearance and for the first time during the negotiations met with Players Association executive director Tony Clark, a source confirmed.

After weeks of incremental movement, MLB and the players made their biggest steps toward one another, albeit on only one of several contested issues. They exchanged proposals on the order of a draft lottery, sources said, and hope to have that issue settled by Saturday, when they will meet again.

It remains to be seen whether a compromise on one topic will create momentum in other areas, although multiple sources expressed optimism that more conversation is a positive sign. It doesn’t appear that either side made a new proposal on core economics, including raises to the minimum salary, a bonus pool for pre-arbitration (entry-level) players, or the competitive-balance (luxury) tax, which looms as the biggest issue in the talks.

All of this is occurring against the backdrop of a compressed calendar. Spring-training games were scheduled to begin Saturday in Florida and Arizona, but camps are not even open yet. MLB on Friday erased three more days of exhibition games from the calendar, announcing that they won’t begin until at least March 8. Opening day is 34 days away, and based on the three-week training camp in 2020, the commissioner’s office believes players will need a minimum of 28 days to get ready for the season.

MLB has therefore set Monday as a cutoff date to avoid delaying the season, an outcome that Manfred recently said would be “disastrous.” The players contend that MLB’s deadline is a pressure tactic, especially because the owners could vote to rescind the lockout, open camps, and even begin the season while continuing to negotiate a collective bargaining agreement. The players have threatened to deny the owners the expanded playoffs that they so desire if they don’t get paid for a full season.

There’s potential, then, that MLB’s first work stoppage in a quarter-century will get even uglier next week. But with more entertainment options than ever available to a public that doesn’t tune into baseball as much as it once did, there are plenty of incentives for the sides to find common ground.

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For talks to advance to the verge of an agreement, one side or the other likely must make a big move.

The owners have agreed to drop draft-pick compensation for free agents who get a qualifying offer, a mechanism that has suppressed market dynamics, and bring the designated hitter to the National League. But they must do more, such as budging on arbitration eligibility for more than 22% of third-year players. (The players have asked for 75%.) Or easing the draft-pick or tax-rate penalties for teams that exceed the luxury-tax threshold.

In turn, the players could move from their demand for a $245 million luxury-tax bar to something closer to the owners’ desire for a $214 million threshold.

There’s a yawning gap between the sides on several other issues. They are $95 million apart on the concept of a bonus pool to reward pre-arbitration players based on high performance. On the minimum salary, there’s a $135,000 difference in their proposals for 2022, a divide that would grow to $215,000 by 2026. But there’s room, if not a lot of time before Monday, to meet closer to the middle.

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Friday marked the 86th day since the owners voted to lock out the players. They waited 43 days to re-engage at the bargaining table, and talks were only intermittent until the sides met daily in Florida this week.

What matters most now, though, is what they can accomplish in the next three days.