The path of the Phillies’ NLCS foe looks awfully familiar. Here are five storylines vs. the Diamondbacks.

by Scott Lauber
Published Oct. 14, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

A few hours before the Phillies finished off the Braves, Rob Thomson sat behind the desk in his office and took note of how uncannily similar this run to the National League Championship Series feels to last year’s.

Start with the two-month sleepwalk to start the season, the awakening in June, and the summertime surge. Think about the star who struggled after signing a nine-figure free-agent contract. Consider the momentum-building sweep of the wild-card series, and the four-game wipeout of the division-winning Braves, which included a split of two games in Atlanta and a series-turning six-run third inning in Game 3 at home.

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“It’s almost eerie,” Thomson said Thursday.

Imagine, then, how strange it must have felt once the Phillies removed their beer goggles, climbed down from the VIP section at XFinity Live, wiped their eyes, focused on their NLCS opponent, and realized they are about to face ... the 2022 Phillies?

» READ MORE: Nick Castellanos hits two more homers as Phillies chop down Braves and reach the NLCS again

OK, so the Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t exactly last year’s Phillies. For one thing, they don’t have nearly as much star power on a $121 million roster. But they did stumble down the stretch and recover to end a playoff drought by qualifying at the tail end of the season, then blaze through the first two rounds on the backs of their two workhorse starting pitchers. (Heck, D’backs ace Zac Gallen could even be Aaron Nola’s body double.)

The Phillies are heavy favorites to become the second repeat NL pennant-winner since the 2008-09 Phillies. But the Diamondbacks are dangerous. They’re wide-eyed, hungry, and playing with the confidence that comes from nobody expecting them to have gotten this far.

“A lot of people will say it: All you’ve got to do is get in,” Arizona right fielder Corbin Carroll told reporters this week. “We got in and just some truly magical things have happened so far.”

Sound familiar?

“We’ve got to face a really great team who’s playing really, really well at this moment,” Phillies owner John Middleton said amid the beer-and-stogies clubhouse party that followed the slaying of the Braves. “I think we’re going to have our hands full next week. We match up with people, but we have to play well.”

If they don’t, well, it could mark a revenge series for 38-year-old Diamondbacks third baseman Evan Longoria, who went 1-for-20 with nine strikeouts against the Phillies in the 2008 World Series and is the last active player from that showdown.

Here, then, are five other story lines for the best-of-seven showdown that begins Monday night at Citizens Bank Park.

Can the Phillies stop Carroll?

In silencing one of the best offenses of all time, the Phillies chopped off the head. Ronald Acuña Jr., NL MVP frontrunner, went 2-for-14 with two walks and two strikeouts in the division series.

Just the same, the Diamondbacks offense runs through Carroll.

A 23-year-old right fielder and the overwhelming rookie of the year favorite, Carroll is 7-for-17 with two homers and two steals in five postseason games. He’s power and speed threat from the left side of the plate, one of 11 players ever with 25 homers and 50 steals in a season.

» READ MORE: Murphy: The Phillies are a different sort of NLDS champion this year. Suddenly, they are World Series favorites.

“He has an inward confidence that he was born with,” said manager Torey Lovullo, who moved Carroll into the leadoff spot in the second half. “There’s a certain degree of mental toughness that we all see, and then there’s a focus that’s fairly unmatched.”

Thomson neutralized Acuña by matching up righty Seranthony Domínguez against him in leverage situations. Carroll had a .721 OPS against lefties (.922 vs. righties), so he’s bound to get a heavy dose of José Alvarado, with Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm also figuring into the mix.

NLCS: D'backs defeat Phillies, 4-3

Game 1: Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 3 | Hayes | Murphy

Game 2: Phillies 10, Diamondbacks 0 | Hayes | Murphy

Game 3: Diamondbacks 2, Phillies 1 | Hayes | Murphy

Game 4: Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 5 | Hayes | Murphy

Game 5: Phillies 6, Diamondbacks 1 | Hayes | Murphy

Game 6: Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 1 | Hayes | Murphy

Game 7: Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 2 | Hayes | Murphy

 

The Phillies’ confidence in the postseason stems from having Zack Wheeler and Nola atop their rotation. Wheeler has a 2.59 ERA in eight postseason starts, tied with Curt Schilling for fourth among Phillies pitchers with at least 30 innings. Only Ryan Madson (2.31), Cliff Lee (2.33), and Roy Halladay (2.37) are better. Nola has allowed two runs in 12⅔ innings this postseason.

But the Diamondbacks have a similar feeling about Gallen and Merrill Kelly — “1A and 1B,” as Lovullo calls them — who are lined up to start two games apiece in the series. They have allowed a total of four runs in 17⅔ innings so far.

And if any of the Diamondbacks will know what to expect at raucous Citizens Bank Park, it’s Gallen. He grew up in South Jersey and pitched for Bishop Eustace. His mother, Stacy, is a Phillies devotee, although she presumably will suspend her fandom for the NLCS. She attended Games 3, 4, and 5 of the World Series last year, then phoned her son and said, “It’s crazy here. I hope one day you get to play in something that’s like this.”

Because they swept their respective wild-card series and had a day off after the first game in the divisional round, the Phillies and Diamondbacks were able to reach this point with only three starting pitchers.

For the NLCS, they will need a fourth.

Taijuan Walker is the Phillies’ likeliest choice, if for no reason other than he’s less comfortable coming out of the bullpen than lefty Cristopher Sánchez. Neither has pitched since Sept. 30, though they threw in the bullpen during the first two series to stay sharp mostly in case of extra innings. The Phillies could open Game 4 with Walker and bring in Sánchez behind him.

» READ MORE: When do the Phillies unleash reliever Orion Kerkering? Francisco Rodríguez could be a blueprint.

“With Taijuan, it’s just tough because it takes him a long time to get going,” Thomson said. “He has never really worked out of the bullpen.”

The Diamondbacks have considerably less depth in their rotation. They will probably turn to righty Ryne Nelson (5.34 ERA in 144 innings in the regular season) and hope he can get through the order once. He spun six solid innings May 23 in Philadelphia, then got roughed up by the Phillies a few weeks later in Arizona.

Few teams took greater advantage of baseball’s rules changes — the pitch clock, larger bases, limits on pickoff moves — than Arizona.

Not only did the Diamondbacks finish second in the NL in steals (166), but they took an extra base on a single or double 46% of the time and had 36 bunt hits (by comparison, the Phillies had 13). The idea: put pressure on opposing pitchers to speed up their deliveries and defenses to be on their toes.

» READ MORE: Johan Rojas wasn’t supposed to stick with the Phillies — yet. But he had other plans.

Don’t be surprised, then, if the Diamondbacks try to use their speed against certain Phillies pitchers, particularly Nola, Alvarado, and closer Craig Kimbrel. The Phillies are capable of playing that way, too. In Game 1 against the Braves, they seized upon slow moves to the plate by Spencer Strider and reliever A.J. Minter and swiped five bases.

“To me, that’s playoff baseball,” Lovullo said. “It’s a different story during the season. Playoff baseball, one run, one play, one pitch could make a difference.”

The Diamondbacks have only three left-handed pitchers, all relievers, good news for left fielder Brandon Marsh, who doesn’t start against lefties.

But it also amplifies the importance of Kyle Schwarber.

In defeating the Braves, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos combined to go 21-for-45 with nine homers. On the flip side, Schwarber, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto went 7-for-44 with 15 strikeouts. Schwarber, the Phillies’ other lefty power threat besides Harper, figures to see more favorable matchups than in the Braves series.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper’s recovery and standout season after elbow surgery even surprised his physical therapist

Schwarber left his mark on the 2022 NLCS in San Diego with his tape-measure upper-deck homer to right field — or maybe Tijuana. And if this year continues to echo last season, well, look out at the Grand Canyon.

“Actually,” Thomson said, “I hope it gets a little bit better than last year.”