Phillies 2026 starting pitching outlook: Free-agent options, prospect forecast, and more

If there was one group on the Phillies that certainly can be said to have done its part during the 2025 playoffs, it was the starting pitching.

Even in the absence of the Phillies’ ace, Zack Wheeler, who underwent season-ending surgery in September, the rotation delivered in all four games of the National League Division Series.

The Phillies’ starters posted a 0.85 WHIP against the Dodgers, a better marker than any other playoff team. They completely neutralized the presumptive National League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, who went 1-for-18 in the series.

But the Phillies’ biggest strength could look different come spring training. Ranger Suárez is about to hit free agency, and is primed for a big payday. Wheeler is set to return at some point next year, but it’s unclear how soon.

And for the second straight year, there is the question of Andrew Painter’s readiness for the major leagues.

Here’s a breakdown of the Phillies’ rotation outlook for next year and beyond.

Cristopher Sánchez was a worthy successor to Wheeler as the Phillies’ ace and Game 1 playoff starter. He led all pitchers in baseball with a 8.0 bWAR, which seeks to quantify how many wins a player is worth compared to a replacement-level player.

Sánchez’s changeup is one of the best in baseball. According to StatCast calculations, the pitch has a run value of +18, which among changeups trails only Tarik Skubal’s +25.

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The left-hander set career-best markers in ERA (2.50), innings (202), and strikeouts (212). Sánchez figures to be a big piece of the puzzle that is the Phillies’ rotation for the long term, as the contract extension he signed last season will take him through 2028 with club options in 2029 and 2030.

The Phillies’ acquisition of Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins last winter proved to be their best move of the offseason. The lefty finished the season healthy, with a career-high 183⅔ innings.

Luzardo’s season ERA of 3.92 doesn’t tell the whole story. He led the National League in ERA in May before a string of bad blowups tanked his numbers.

He ultimately overcame issues with pitching out of the stretch to finish the year strong, and became a go-to arm in the postseason. He started Game 2 of the NLDS and held the Dodgers to two runs over six innings, then came out of the bullpen when Game 4 went to extras to pitch in emergency relief.

Luzardo has one year remaining of team control. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies had not yet discussed the possibility of extending his deal this offseason.

“We haven’t talked about that as of yet, but I’d love to have Jesús Luzardo be part of our organization for years to come,” he said. “He’s a really good pitcher, but we haven’t tackled that as of yet. He’s a guy that we really like.”

Aaron Nola’s season was uncharacteristic from start to finish. He struggled early in the year, then hit the injured list for the first time since 2017. What was intended to be a short stint with an ankle sprain, not much longer than the required 15 days, stretched to three months when he experienced a stress fracture in his rib during the rehab process.

Nola returned to the rotation in August but still showed inconsistency. He ended the regular season with a 6.01 ERA and 1.346 WHIP, both career worsts, in 94⅓ innings.

Excluding his 77⅓ innings in the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, it was the fewest innings Nola has thrown since his rookie year in 2015.

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But when the Phillies needed him most, Nola was back at his best. He served as the opener for Game 3 in the NLDS, and held the Dodgers off the scoreboard for two innings before passing the baton to Suárez. Nola touched 95 mph with his fastball for the first time since 2024.

“It’s important for building. And basically what you saw there at the end, you know it’s still in there, right?” Dombrowski said. “... At the end, what you saw, what we all saw, I think looks very good, encouraging for next year, because you know what’s in there, which is not really surprising. So I think when you look at him, you say, ‘OK, he’s one of our five starters,’ you feel good about that.”

One year ago, Taijuan Walker’s future was the biggest question facing the Phillies’ rotation after a career-worst year. But Walker committed himself to an offseason program that increased his average fastball velocity from 91.3 to 92.1 mph. The rest of his numbers improved as well, with a 4.08 ERA over 123⅔ innings.

While still likely not what the Phillies envisioned when they signed him to a four-year, $72 million contract in 2022, Walker fulfilled every role he was asked to. He flip-flopped between the rotation and the bullpen during the regular season, and recorded his first career save in May after tossing three scoreless innings in relief against the Rays.

He will enter the last year of his deal.

Wheeler was on his way to another Cy Young-caliber season when everything came to a screeching halt in August after trainers identified a blood clot in his upper right arm. The 35-year-old was ultimately diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome, which he underwent a successful procedure to address on Sept. 23 in St. Louis.

“They feel it would be six to eight months that he could be back pitching for us, and that’s in a game at the major league level during the regular season,” Dombrowski said. “So that takes you from the end of spring training to the end of May. That’s what our time frame is with him at this point.

“I don’t think it’ll affect us a great deal with what we do, because we are looking for him to come back.”

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Wheeler made periodic appearances around Citizens Bank Park at the tail end of the season, and was even part of the pregame introductions ahead of Game 1 of the NLDS. Dombrowski said he had been resting after his surgery, and was scheduled to begin the rehab program at the end of October.

“Everything has gone well with the surgery. He feels fine. He feels like he should be,” Dombrowski said.

The broad timeline for Wheeler’s return leaves some question marks for the rotation at the beginning of next season, although the Phillies are confident that he will return to form.

As a reference point, Rangers pitcher Merrill Kelly was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent surgery in September 2020 when he was with the Diamondbacks. He returned to the mound in 2021, going through a normal spring training, and made 27 starts that season.

The Phillies signed Suárez as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela. But when he hits free agency after the conclusion of the World Series, there’s a high likelihood he could leave the only club he has ever known.

Suárez was an All-Star in 2024 and turned down an invitation to pitch in the Midsummer Classic in 2025. He has a 3.38 career ERA since debuting in 2018 and is one of the best postseason pitchers in the majors. Suárez has a 1.48 ERA in 42⅔ career playoff innings.

After Framber Valdez, Suárez should be one of the top lefties in this free-agent class. All of that has set him, and his super agent Scott Boras, up for a big payday. But with Wheeler expected to return next season and Painter still waiting in the wings, will the Phillies outbid other starting pitching-hungry teams?

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“I don’t want it to be the last year, but it’s not up to me right now,” Suárez said through a team interpreter after the Phillies’ Game 4 loss. “It’s more about the team itself, and my agent.”

Walker Buehler also heads to free agency again after being a Phillie for just over a month. He signed a minor league deal with the team on Aug. 31 to be the sixth member of the rotation down the stretch after being released by the Red Sox.

Buehler said in September that he had discussions to join the Phillies last offseason in free agency before he landed in Boston.

In a tiny sample size, Buehler had a 0.66 ERA in three appearances with the Phillies (13⅔ innings), compared to a 5.45 ERA in 112⅓ innings with Boston. However, he still struggled with command at times, with a 10.5% walk rate in those three games as a Phillie. That inconsistency had plagued him all season, leading the Red Sox to remove him from their rotation and ultimately release him.

While Buehler was named to the NLDS roster, he was not used in any of the four games.

Entering last season, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Painter would impact the major league club at some point in 2025. Dombrowski repeatedly outlined “July-ish” as the time frame in which the Phillies’ top prospect would be ready to join the majors.

But that timetable ultimately passed without even a hint of a promotion. Painter was shut down in September after a 5.26 ERA in a career-high 118 innings between low-A Clearwater and triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Painter allowed 3.88 walks per nine innings and 10.04 hits per nine innings with the IronPigs. He was not a member of the Phillies’ “stay-ready camp” during the playoffs as a potential postseason replacement.

Even so, the Phillies are not viewing his season as a disappointment.

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“In Painter’s case, he still has quality stuff,” Dombrowski said. “He still throws his fastball in the upper 90s, touches 100. He still has quality breaking stuff. And I think most importantly, he remained healthy and went out there every five days, six days. So those things are the encouragement. He needs a little bit better command than what he had. He used to have great command. It wasn’t quite as good this year.”

Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023. For many pitchers, command is the last thing that returns during the rehab process. That was the case for Luzardo when he had the surgery as an 18-year-old in 2016.

“From my personal experience, it took me probably a full year and a half removed from Tommy John to feel completely like myself,” Luzardo said in August.

It’s unlikely the Phillies will place another timetable on Painter. But after his first normal offseason since the surgery, it’s possible he could enter the spring competing for a spot in the Phillies’ rotation.

“I think he’s going to be better the second year out after the Tommy John,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “The command’s going to get better. The quality of stuff’s going to get a little bit better. He’s going to be fine.”

The Phillies went the college route in the first round of the 2025 MLB draft to select Gage Wood out of Arkansas. Wood, ranked the Phillies’ No. 4 prospect by MLBPipeline, made just one appearance for low-A Clearwater in September and is poised to start his first full professional season next year.

After the draft, Phillies scouting director Brian Barber said he views the 6-foot right-hander as a player who “has the potential to move quickly.”

The Blue Jays’ Trey Yesavage has provided a blueprint for just how quickly a college pitcher can move: Just 15 months since the Boyertown High graduate was drafted by Toronto, he has made two World Series starts. While that’s not necessarily the expectation for Wood, it will be interesting to watch how the 21-year-old’s stuff translates to the professional level.

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Another college arm in the pipeline is Cade Obermuller, who is set to make his professional debut next season after the Phillies drafted him out of Iowa in the second round. The 22-year-old is the son of former MLB pitcher Wes Obermueller. The lefty cut his walk rate from 6.2 per nine innings in 2024 to 3.5 per nine as a junior starter with the Hawkeyes. He is ranked as the Phillies’ No. 7 prospect.

Griff McGarry, 26, was named the Paul Owens Award winner as the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year after a bounce-back 2025 campaign. He had struggled to a 4.70 ERA in triple A in 2024, pitching out of the bullpen, but was moved back to a starting role this year in double A.

Command has been a persistent issue for McGarry, but he cut his walks from 10.23 per nine innings in 2024 to 5.27 this season while putting up a 3.44 ERA. He earned a promotion back to triple A for his final start of the season.

Right-hander Moises Chace, the Phillies’ No. 8 prospect, will be working his way back from Tommy John surgery. He underwent the procedure in June after experiencing a drop in velocity earlier in the season with double-A Reading.