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Bryce Harper is an All-Star lock. Which Phillies have the best case to join him next month?

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have the best cases to make the NL All-Star team. But is there enough room on the roster for both Phillies pitchers?

Bryce Harper, right, is almost certain to tip his cap before the All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium next month. Will Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola be there with him?
Bryce Harper, right, is almost certain to tip his cap before the All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium next month. Will Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola be there with him?Read moreDAVID MAIALETTI / Staff Photographer

At this time last year, Bryce Harper had borderline All-Star numbers. But he also had a bunch of nagging injuries: a cranky lower back, sore right shoulder, and bruised left wrist.

What he needed most, more than a trip to another All-Star Game, were four consecutive days off.

It was little wonder, then, that Harper seemed more relieved than snubbed last July when he didn’t get named to the National League team. Never mind that he had 15 home runs and an .898 OPS at the break. Or that he’s one of baseball’s biggest stars. Or that he hadn’t appeared on the national stage since the 2018 All-Star Game. He wasn’t about to complain about not going to Colorado.

“I mean, of course you always want to be an All-Star, and when you’re not there, it [stinks],” Harper said then. “But for me, I probably wouldn’t have went anyways. I probably would’ve took a break from it and just tried to enjoy my family and took some down time.”

» READ MORE: Inside Bryce Harper's transition to full-time DH: 'I don't feel like I'm doing enough'

He won’t have as much of a choice this time around.

Harper has been the best hitter in the league for a calendar year, winning his second NL MVP award based on his eye-popping second half and not relenting through the first three months of the season despite a torn elbow ligament that has turned him into a full-time designated hitter. Entering play Friday night in San Diego, he ranked second in the NL in slugging (.612) and OPS+ (181), third in on-base percentage (.390) and extra-base hits (37), fourth in batting average (.325), fifth in doubles (21), and tied for ninth in homers (15).

Last month, Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner said it “feels like [Harper’s] the best player in the world.” Fans across the country agree that he’s at least in the conversation. Through the first balloting update last week, Harper had 1,059,433 All-Star votes, third-most among National Leaguers behind Mookie Betts (1,446,050) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (1,398,563).

So, while Harper can always decide to tip his cap in the pregame introductions, take one at-bat in the first inning, and bow out to give his elbow a needed rest, something would have to go terribly wrong for him to not be the DH in NL manager Brian Snitker’s lineup next month at Dodger Stadium.

The only question is whether Harper will travel alone to the All-Star Game. The Phillies have had exactly one All-Star in six of the last seven games. They haven’t sent more than two players since 2012. Interim manager Rob Thomson said last week that he believes the Phillies have several candidates worthy of being selected, but then, he’s admittedly biased.

Here’s a look at the most likely Phillies to keep Harper company in Los Angeles:

» READ MORE: The story of Zack Wheeler's rise from a Georgia high school to an MLB All-Star

Zack Wheeler

OK, so in hindsight, it was foolish to think Wheeler would be ready for the season after not making a start in the shortened spring training.

But it sure didn’t take long at all for him to get up to speed.

After allowing 12 earned runs in his first three starts, Wheeler gave up only 11 over his last 10 starts. He’s 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA during that stretch, 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA overall. He leads the NL in fielding independent pitching (2.27), ranks fourth in strikeout rate (28.3%), and has allowed only three homers in 74⅔ innings.

Last year, Wheeler was among eight starting pitchers on the NL roster en route to finishing as runner-up in the Cy Young Award voting. He remains one of the league’s eight best starters and should be the first Phillies pitcher selected to back-to-back All-Star Games since Cole Hamels in 2011-12.

But what if there’s a Phillies pitcher who’s having an even better season than Wheeler?

Aaron Nola

Here’s where Nola ranked among NL pitchers entering his start Friday night in San Diego: first in walks/hits per innings pitched (0.870), first in walks per nine innings (1.104), second in innings pitched (89⅔), third in strikeouts (99), and sixth in strikeout rate (28.7%) and hits per nine innings (6.725).

» READ MORE: Inside the Phillies' turnaround: Was it as simple as changing the manager?

Nola is quietly having his best season since 2018, when he represented the Phillies in the All-Star Game and finished third in the Cy Young voting. After a disappointing 2021, he has rediscovered his sinker as a put-away pitch and dominated hitters with his curveball. His typically precise command has reached another level. Entering Friday night, his last non-intentional walk came 143 batters and six starts ago.

But will there be room on the NL roster for two Phillies starters? It’s going to be close. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, San Diego’s Joe Musgrove, Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, and Atlanta’s Max Fried appear to be All-Star locks. San Francisco’s Carlos Rodón, Miami’s Pablo López, the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urías, Arizona’s Zac Gallen, and Atlanta’s Kyle Wright also have strong cases. And Tyler Mahle may have to be on the team if Cincinnati doesn’t have another representative.

That’s 13 starting pitchers, including Wheeler and Nola. There won’t be spots for all of them.

Kyle Schwarber

Admit it: You want to see Schwarber in the Home Run Derby.

“If he has a chance to go out to L.A. and do it, it would be sick,” Harper said last week. “If Schwarby has a chance to go do it, I think he might hit some balls out of that stadium.”

There’s precedent for non-All-Stars to compete in the Derby. Schwarber did it in 2018 and lost to Harper in the final round. Yoenis Céspedes (2013), Giancarlo Stanton (2016), and Pete Alonso (2021) won the Derby, then watched the All-Star Game as spectators.

» READ MORE: Kyle Schwarber is among the NL leaders in homers. Would he compete in the Home Run Derby?

Schwarber seemed ambivalent when asked recently if he would enter the derby again.

“I don’t know,” he said. “I guess we’ll cross that route when it gets to it. I think it more kind of goes on how you’re feeling — if you feel like you want to get into it or does your body need the break? Definitely it’s taxing.”

But Schwarber is making a case for full All-Star consideration with yet another monster June. It isn’t only the power, although he slugged his ninth homer of the month Thursday night in San Diego to tie Alonso for the NL lead with 20 homers overall. Schwarber has been an on-base machine atop the order, reaching at a .411 clip this month.

It may not be enough to push him past other worthy outfielders, including San Francisco’s Joc Pederson, San Diego’s Jurickson Profar, the Cubs’ Ian Happ, and the Mets’ Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte. Betts may not be back in time from a cracked right rib, but Acuña is a shoo-in to make the team. Washington Nationals star Juan Soto figures to be there, too, despite a subpar season.

J.T. Realmuto

Last year, Realmuto batted .264 with seven homers and a .797 OPS through June but made the All-Star team largely based on his well-earned reputation as one of the best catchers in baseball.

Reputation probably won’t get him to Los Angeles.

The Cubs’ Willson Contreras almost certainly will win the fan voting among catchers, and deservedly so. Players vote for the backups, and yes, some will reflexively check Realmuto’s name. He has played more than any catcher in baseball — by nearly 50 innings over Oakland’s Sean Murphy.

» READ MORE: Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies' unlikely spark, is back home in San Diego on a major league roll

But it’s difficult to ignore that Realmuto lacks the numbers. He went 95 plate appearances without a home run before going deep Thursday night in San Diego. And still, he was slugging only .358 with a .676 OPS.

There may be support for Atlanta’s Travis d’Arnaud, the Dodgers’ Will Smith, or Arizona’s Daulton Varsho, all of whom are having better years than Realmuto. Cincinnati’s most deserving All-Star is catcher Tyler Stephenson.

Rhys Hoskins

If first base wasn’t such a loaded position, Hoskins would be playing himself into stronger consideration this month. He has settled into the No. 2 spot in the Phillies order behind Schwarber and helped to grind opposing pitchers into sawdust.

But two of the top NL MVP candidates are first basemen: St. Louis’ Paul Goldschmidt and the Mets’ Alonso. C.J. Cron is putting up big numbers again in Colorado. Washington’s Josh Bell has had a nice first half. Here’s how good the first-base field is in the NL: Freddie Freeman may get snubbed.

So while Hoskins has been a central figure in the Phillies’ resurgence, his first All-Star nod is probably not forthcoming.