The Braves aren’t dead yet. But here are three good reasons to think the Phillies have them close.

ATLANTA — There’s no such thing as a true must-win in Game 1. I don’t think I’m breaking any news there. But the more you look at the complexion of this series, and the more you think about what lies ahead for the Braves, the more it becomes clear that their 3-0 loss on Saturday was nothing short of devastating.

That wasn’t the case last year, when the Phillies pulled out a 7-6 win in the National League Division Series opener at Truist Park. Back then, the Braves could rest easy knowing that Game 2 would be in the capable hands of Kyle Wright, who was coming off a regular season that was nearly as impressive as that of opposing starter Zack Wheeler. Furthermore, they weren’t weighed down by the mental baggage that they will be lugging into Monday’s tilt with the Phillies. It’s easy to forget that last year’s Braves scored the final five runs of Game 1, including a three-run home run by Matt Olson in the ninth inning that brought the tying run to the plate with one out. They followed that up with three runs off Wheeler in the sixth inning of Game 2, and by the end of the game, they’d tied the series, 1-1, and were again feeling good about their chances.

Not now. On paper, nothing has changed. In reality, everything is different.

Wheeler is a big reason for that. Check out the results of his last six starts against the Braves at Truist Park: 40⅔ innings, nine earned runs (1.99 ERA), 46 strikeouts, six walks.

That’ll work.

Wheeler had a rough outing against the Braves back on Sept 12, when he gave up six runs in five innings at Citizens Bank Park. Other than that, though, his domination of the Braves has been thorough. In his other two starts this year, he held them to one run on six hits in 14 innings.

All told, Wheeler’s last 10 starts against the Braves have seen him yield just 13 runs in 77 innings (1.52 ERA).

But Wheeler’s track record is only part of the equation. Facing him will be Max Fried, who hasn’t made a start in 17 days thanks to a finger blister that landed him on the injured list in late September. The question isn’t really his health: Fried said recently that the blister is healed and that he feels as good as normal. The big unknown is how deep into the game he can go after a layoff that is now pushing three weeks. The lefty pitched five innings of a simulated game this week. But I highly doubt the Braves were able to simulate the Phillies lineup.

» READ MORE: Phillies-Braves Game 1: Bryce Harper was once again the best kind of maniac. Time to get the man his ring.

Nobody should be leaving Fried for dead. He’s an excellent pitcher who was at the top of his game before the injury. The Braves won eight of his last nine starts in the regular season, a stretch in which Fried posted a 2.79 ERA with 55 strikeouts, 12 walks, and five home runs allowed in 51⅔ innings. That included a mid-September win over the Phillies in which he held them to one run on four hits in five innings.

“I mean, obviously not the most ideal situation coming in, not all the way healthy, missing some time going into the playoffs,” Fried said before Game 1. “But physically, my body and the way that I’m feeling this year versus last year is night-and-day different. So I’m feeling really good. I feel strong. Obviously don’t have too many innings on my arm this year. So I’m just getting excited to get back out there and kind of just leave it all out there and kind of just go to battle with my guys.”

For however long Fried is in the game, the Braves will have a good chance at trading zeroes with Wheeler. At least, whenever Bryce Harper isn’t at the plate.

His .987 postseason OPS ranks first among active players with at least 150 plate appearances.

The only players with a higher career mark over the last 50 years are George Brett, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, and Nelson Cruz.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ first goal is to beat the Braves. Their second goal is to become them.

After hitting a home run and reaching base four times in the Phillies’ 3-0 win in Game 1, Harper now has a career OPS of .987 in the postseason. He has hit 12 home runs, 11 doubles, and one triple in 172 plate appearances. He’s also 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts.

Think about those numbers in terms of a season. Over 600 plate appearances, they would equate to 41 homers and 20 steals. Again, that’s with a .987 OPS. All of that in a postseason environment, against pitching staffs that are front-loaded and optimally aligned.

Good luck with that.

It doesn’t matter who is on the mound or how dicey the situations get. Since Game 2 of last year’s NLDS, the Braves have scored a total of seven runs. During that stretch, superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. has gone 2-for-14 with six strikeouts, one walk, and no extra-base hits.

It’s still too small of a sample to say that these Braves lack mental toughness. That said, if they do have it, we’re going to find out in Game 2.