Don’t step on the shovel again: Phillies bullpen must be seen to be believed

Relievers in the hot stove and oven mitts in hell. Some things are just easier to sell. Six weeks from now, the Phillies equipment truck will begin the long drive south to Clearwater, Fla. Following closely in the rearview mirror will be a storyline that’s as predictable as a central Virginia speed trap. The Phillies signed some guys with names that you recognize. And now the bullpen is fixed.

We heard it yesterday with Craig Kimbrel the same way we heard it with Corey Knebel and Jeurys Familia and Archie Bradley and Tommy Hunter. Everything will be great if he gets back to being the guy he was before the Phillies signed him. Before his strikeout rate dropped by 25-plus percent. Before his team left him off the postseason roster. Before his velocity dipped.

» READ MORE: Why Craig Kimbrel believes the Phillies can help him to regain his dominance

I’m being harsh here, mostly for effect. Kimbrel is a fine signing for a team that can afford to spend $10 million on whatever the best available option is. The Phillies needed to replace a lot of innings in their bullpen, and the offseason is a place where you must pay a premium for anyone who has a track record of logging them. In a weird, twisted way, the fact that the Phillies deemed it necessary to sign Kimbrel should give you some confidence that they recognize how much of a question mark this bullpen is right now. They are a great bullpen away from being a 100-win team. But they are a great way from being a great bullpen. At least they recognized that.

Let’s first be honest about what this Phillies bullpen was in the postseason. The epitaph would read something like, “They Got By.” That they did was a more a testament to fortitude than fundamentals. Rob Thomson had two pitchers who gave his team the advantage when they were on the mound. Seranthony Domínguez, José Alvarado, Zach Eflin, David Robertson, Brad Hand — all of them did all that they could. For the last three of that group, it was just barely enough.

The Phillies’ main objective this offseason was to get the bullpen to a point where they wouldn’t enter September looking dead in the water. That’s a tough thing to do in the offseason because the vast majority of buyers in the free-agent market could use a cost-effective reliever. Any time that is the case, cost effectiveness ends up mostly being a product of luck. Does Matt Strahm have a better chance at being the guy Hand was supposed to be? Is Kimbrel any less likely than Familia was to continue his regression rather than reverse it? Maybe Knebel is the better comp for Kimbrel. Both signed for $10 million. So what then?

The reality of the Phillies situation is that the fate of their bullpen is much more likely to hinge on variables that did not warrant press conferences. If Alvarado and Domínguez are as healthy and effective as they were during the second half of the regular season and the first of the postseason, Rob Thomson will not have much thinking to do when it comes to his highest-leverage innings. Domínguez gets the last go at the opposing lineup’s best three-hitter stretch. Alvarado gets the second best.

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Hopefully, we’ve reached a point in baseball groupthink where managers are comfortable lining up their best relievers to face the opponent’s best hitters rather than saving them for the highest-numbered inning. If that is the case, then Kimbrel could have an important future as the primary guy who faces the 7-8-9 hitters in most high-leverage situations. Just look at his numbers against the bottom third of the order last season: 14-for-87 with 28 strikeouts, four walks, two hit-by-pitches, five extra base hits, one home run. That’s a 28 total bases (including walks and hit by pitch) in 94 plate appearances. That’s less than one base for every three outs. Compare that to his performance against the No. 3 and No. 4 hitters: 35 total bases against 58 batters, with 13 strikeouts. That’s almost one base allowed for every out recorded.

If you are paying careful attention, you will notice that I am dangerously close to talking myself into this Phillies bullpen. I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Connor Brogdon reminds me of a young Ryan Madson: someone who just needs a little bit of confidence and chutzpah to become a legitimate eighth-inning force. Again, though, we’ve grasped at this golden ring before.

The biggest question marks are the ones below that group of Domínguez, Alvarado, Kimbrel, Strahm, and Brogdon. Often, the guys who establish a bullpen’s floor are the Andrew Bellattis of the world. Dombrowski and his lieutenants have done plenty of due diligence this offseason: righty Luis Ortiz and lefty Andrew Vasquez, both waiver claims from the Giants; righty Erich Uelmen, purchased from the Cubs earlier this week; righty Jake Jewell, a former Angel and Cub signed to a minor league contract last month. None of them have anything close to the upside that Alvarado possessed a couple of years ago when the Phillies landed him in a low-cost December trade. But it would help their cause if one of that group can turn into another Bellatti, who gave them 41 scoreless outings in 59 appearances with a 3.31 ERA last year after signing a minor league contract.

Put it this way: the Phillies will enter 2023 with more bullpen upside than they’ve had in a long time. They have some things that can break right in addition to the usual stuff that breaks wrong. In an ideal world, Kimbrel will end up in the first category. If he doesn’t, the Phillies can at least hope that it doesn’t matter.

Once you reach a certain income bracket, dollar scratch-off tickets are more comedy than tragedy.

If the choice was Kimbrel at $10 million or nobody at $0, they are a better team with the option they chose.

Patriotism, religion, and relievers — the opiates of the masses.