Sports betting: MLB over/unders proving to be a swing and a miss for Vegas sportsbooks
Based on win totals at the All-Star break projected over a 162-game season, sportsbooks are facing the possibility of missing by more than 10 games for 12 of 30 teams.
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Eric Biggio, head of baseball trading for Caesars Sportsbook, mentioned in March that this was an especially difficult year for sportsbooks to set over/unders for each team’s win total for the 2022 season.
Because of the three-month lockout, a flurry of moves and some key injuries happened between the time an agreement was reached on March 7 and when games began on April 7.
“It was more challenging coming up with these win totals since there was less of an offseason,” Biggio said.
Based on win totals at the All-Star break projected over a 162-game season, an admittedly inexact measure, sportsbooks are facing the possibility of missing by more than 10 games for 12 teams.
» READ MORE: World Series odds: Latest 2022 MLB winner futures betting
The Yankees are the most underrated. Their line was 92.5 wins. At the break, they were on pace for 113. That’s gonna be bad for the New York sportsbooks.
Washington appears to be the most overrated. Their line was 70.5 victories. The hapless Nats are on pace to go 53-109. It would be the franchise’s most losses in more than 50 years.
Biggio and his crew were dead-on with the Phillies, however. He had their line on March 29 at 85.5 wins. Their 49-43 mark at the break paces out to a record of 86-76 over 162 games.
The Rays, Rangers, Cardinals, and Giants also were within one-half game of their projected number.
Biggio said at the time that the sharp bettors were hammering the Dodgers’ over (which likely will be a loss for him), the Orioles’ under (which would be a win), and the Pirates’ under (which still could go either way).
“We can’t make their win totals low enough,” he remarked, “just like we can’t make the Dodgers’ win total high enough.”
One other thing
At the All-Star break, 18 of the 30 major league teams were on pace to go over their preseason projected win total, including all five in the NL West: Dodgers (+9.5), Rockies (+5.5), Diamondbacks (+3.5), Padres (+1.5) and Giants (+0.5).
This & That
Here’s an interesting piece on Unabated.com about how a sharp bettor found a flaw in a Caesars baseball prop and made a profit of $20,000 before it was shut down.
A bettor at DraftKings has a $1,000 two-leg parlay on Juan Soto (9-2 odds) to win the Home Run Derby and Sungjae Im (16-1) to win this weekend’s 3M Open. Soto did his part. Im shot 6-under on Thursday to tie for the lead after the first round. The parlay’s worth $93,500. Im’s odds at DK entering Friday were down to 7-2.
Former tennis star Mardy Fish, who is playing the 3M on a sponsor’s exemption, was in last place after shooting 10-over in the first round. SuperBook had his first round over/under at 76.5 strokes (he shot an 81), gave him 12-1 odds to make the cut (not happening), and 10,000-1 odds to win the tournament (definitely not happening).
Kyle Schwarber may have shrugged off a possible counting error in his Home Run Derby loss to Albert Pujols, but whoever put $54,000 at Caesars on him to beat Pujols couldn’t have been happy. Too many shady things can happen at that event. Regulators shouldn’t allow wagering on it, same with the hot dog eating contest; though we do hope the DraftKings bettor above gets home with Im.
James “Mattress Mack” McIngvale put down another $2 million on his Astros to win the World Series, this time with Barstool at +533 odds (would win $10,660,000). He now has $6 million wagered on the Astros which would net him over $52 million in winnings.
And finally
Congrats to the person at DK who hit a $20, 10-leg parlay on darts. Yeah, darts.
One of the winners in the parlay at the World Matchplay was Nathan Aspinall, a renowned player who was apparently an underdog in his match with Luke Humphries. At least that’s how he saw it, and he was salty about it afterward, too.
“Nobody gave me a cat in hell’s chance of winning this game and the motivation that gave me I can’t describe,” he said in a report on UK’s SportingLife.com. “I’ve stuck two fingers up at everyone who said I’d get battered tonight. I’m still good at this game.”
Our man Nate advanced all the way to the quarterfinals and helped cash a parlay for $1,306.23. That gets two fingers up from us, as well: both thumbs.