Clinching the NL East means nothing for the Phillies, who have bigger issues at stake
What's Aaron Nola's role in the playoffs? How will Rob Thomson handle his outfield rotation? Those are questions the Phillies face after clinching an NL East title.
The big shame of Major League Baseball’s new six-team playoff format is nights like Monday night. The Phillies clinched their second straight division title, which is an accomplishment worth celebrating. On a practical level, though, they haven’t accomplished anything yet.
The real prize will come whenever they clinch the second seed, which will guarantee them a bye through the wild card round. They took a big step toward it by beating the Dodgers, over whom they now hold a 5½-game lead with 11 to play. But they can’t yet afford a Champagne hangover: Lose the next two, and the Dodgers are right back on their heels. How can a team throw a good, honest party knowing that the next day of work is as important as the last?
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I suppose it’s a small price to play for the luxury of clinching a playoff berth midway through September. But the drama of this clincher pales in comparison to the ones that have preceded it. The real payoff has yet to occur.
Given the circumstances, it would feel a bit dishonest to pick now as the moment to look back and fawn over the season that was. If the Phillies end up playing in the wild card as the lowest-seeded division winner, nothing about the 2025 regular season will feel like a success.
At this point, all we know is what we don’t know. Beyond the second seed, two of the biggest bullet points involve a couple of veterans who’ve sipped plenty of Champagne over the last few seasons.
What is Aaron Nola’s role on a postseason roster?
The Phillies likely will need a fourth starter at some point. We’re assuming Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Jesús Luzardo will start Games 1-3. It’s hardly a lock that Aaron Nola would be the choice for Game 4. That doesn’t feel great to say, given how much Nola has meant to the Phillies throughout his career. But it’s reality. At least, for now.
Nola has a 5.10 ERA in his last 35 starts. He has a 6.44 ERA in 15 starts this season. Only twice in 15 starts this year has he held an opponent under four runs in back-to-back outings. He has yet to do it three straight times. If Zack Wheeler were healthy, Nola wouldn’t have much of an argument for a spot in the postseason rotation.
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Even now, the strongest argument for Nola is a diagnosis of exclusion. Who else is there?
Taijuan Walker certainly has a case as a better option. Sure, he’s allowed four-plus runs in his last four starts. But he has allowed six-plus in only one of his 20 starts. Nola has done that five times in 15, including twice this month.
Walker Buehler will earn some consideration if Rob Thomson continues to see what he saw in Buehler’s Phillies debut. The veteran right-hander, released by the Red Sox in August, has a ton of postseason experience. Last October, he finished the playoffs with 10 scoreless innings in his last three appearances for the world champion Dodgers. In fact, he recorded the final three outs of the World Series clincher.
Right now, the Phillies’ best hope is that their fourth starter won’t matter. But Nola will need to show something down the stretch to get the nod.
How will Thomson handle Nick Castellanos? How will he handle the rest of his outfield?
The Phillies’ veteran right fielder has 14 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this month. Would Thomson really keep Nick Castellanos on the bench for the entire series against a team like the Padres, who don’t have a left-handed starter? On the flip side, how would he handle Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler against a team like the Cubs, who likely would throw two lefties (Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga) in Games 1-3?
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Thomson has pulled all the right strings in the outfield since the trade deadline. But, come the postseason, would he really err on the side of a couple of relative newcomers in Kepler and Harrison Bader over a couple of Phillies playoff fixtures in Castellanos and Marsh? A lot likely depends on what happens these next couple of weeks.
These are the types of questions that make it difficult to see any sort of finality or accomplishment as we sit here on Sept. 16. It is better to be NL East champs than to not be. The Phillies can hold their heads high. They just can’t do it for long.