The Phillies believe Taijuan Walker can be even better, and it starts with some simple math

FORT MYERS, Fla. — When the Phillies signed Taijuan Walker to the fourth-largest contract for pitchers in this winter’s free-agent market, they rooted their decision in scouting, data, and a belief that the 30-year-old right-hander is still improving after a decade in the majors.

But they also applied old-fashioned mathematics.

The Phillies were faced with replacing 288⅓ innings in the starting rotation from last season, 167⅔ of which came from Kyle Gibson. (Fellow outgoing free agents Zach Eflin and Noah Syndergaard combined for 120⅔ innings in 22 starts.) Walker and Gibson were among the 31 pitchers who logged at least 150 innings in each of the last two seasons. But Walker did it while posting a 3.98 ERA compared to Gibson’s 4.35 mark.

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Quantity still matters almost as much as quality in starting pitching. Walker figures to provide both as a return on the Phillies’ $72 million, four-year investment.

“One-hundred percent,” said Walker, who will make his Phillies spring training debut Friday against the Tigers in Clearwater, Fla. “I think the most I’ve thrown is 170. My goal this year is definitely to get to 180-185 if I can.”

That’s where the math comes in.

Over the last two seasons with the Mets, Walker made a total of 59 starts. He recorded an out in the seventh inning in only 15 of those games. He came out for the eighth inning and recorded an out only twice, both last season, including 7⅓ scoreless innings June 29 against the Astros.

It isn’t that Walker is incapable of pitching deep into games. At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, he’s built more like a middle linebacker than a mid-rotation pitcher. And he throws six pitches, including an improving splitter that he picked up from former Mets teammate (and one-time Phillies prospect) Carlos Carrasco.

But opposing hitters combined to slug .420 against Walker the third time through the order last season compared to .395 earlier in games. The most extreme example of those struggles came in the seventh inning of a Sept. 21 game in Milwaukee, when Walker gave up a leadoff walk and back-to-back singles before being lifted from what turned into a five-run inning.

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“You have that four- or five-run inning that’s probably 20-30 pitches. That’s probably [the equivalent of] two innings right there,” Walker said. “Just limiting those big innings, I think I will be able to get to that extra inning, that sixth or seventh, maybe even get into the eighth a couple of times.”

Do that often enough and a 160-inning season turns into a 175-inning season.

Simple math.

The Phillies have ideas for how to help Walker get there. Continuing to increase his splitter usage is one avenue. He threw the pitch 27.6% of the time last year, up from 14.3% in 2021. He also had more success with it, holding opposing hitters to a .195 average and .267 slugging percentage, down from .258 and .505 in 2021.

“Part of the things we want to help with and what we’re excited to collaborate with him on is, what does it look like to get him past the 160 number into the 180s, so that he’s pushing the innings, but also he’s stronger at the end [of starts] than the beginning,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said. “Obviously he’s a very good pitcher. It’s about helping him on his path of getting better and doing the things he wants to do.

“On our end, that’s helping him protect those blind spots and how can we get him to maybe pitch an inning more a game here and there.”

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It isn’t dissimilar to the tone the Phillies took four years ago when they signed Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118 million contract.

Wheeler, who was about to turn 30, was coming off back-to-back healthy seasons, including a career-high 195⅓ innings in 2019, coincidentally for the Mets. Based on the recommendations of their scouts and data analysis, they believed it was the tip of the iceberg for a former first-round pick who was entering the second phase of his major league career.

In Wheeler’s case, the Phillies were correct. Over the last three seasons, Wheeler has a 2.82 ERA and 463 strikeouts. He ranks sixth among all pitchers with 437⅓ innings and has a 149 ERA+, meaning he has been 49% better than league average.

Quantity and quality.

This time around, the Phillies considered other mid-rotation free-agent options, especially Jameson Taillon, who signed a four-year, $68 million deal with the Cubs. But they believe Walker, 5% better than league average over the last two years and throughout his career, stands a better chance to tap into his upside.

“Even when Taijuan was with Seattle, I really liked this guy,” manager Rob Thomson said. “Because he’s got a big arm, he’s got the split. He’s really athletic, really competes. I’m really excited to have him on this club.”

Walker will leave the Phillies next week to pitch for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. He grew up in Southern California, but his mother is half-Mexican. He will be part of a rotation that includes Dodgers ace Julio Urías, José Urquidy of the Astros, and Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval.

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Mexico is in a first-round pool with the United States and opens the tournament in Arizona against Colombia on March 11.

“I’m excited to play because a lot of the big superstars are playing,” Walker said. “Mexico has a sneaky good team. I think we’re going to surprise some people.”

Led by a pitcher who thinks he can do the same for the Phillies.