Early record predictions, award picks, and more of what they’re saying about the Phillies ahead of their season opener

The Phillies will open the season against the Texas Rangers on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park as they prepare for a new season with the same goal and the same core that has brought the team four consecutive postseason appearances.

Heading into this season, there will be plenty of storylines to keep an eye on. From the team’s aging core to Justin Crawford’s Rookie of the Year odds, here’s everything they’re saying about the Phillies ahead of their season opener …

The Phillies won their second consecutive NL East title last year with a 96-66 record. When it comes to this year, Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly doesn’t believe they’ll find as much success in the win category.

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“They’re arguably still the favorites to win the NL East title,” Kelly wrote. “But as things stand now, they project to be closer to a 92-win team than the 96 games they won last season.

“The ceiling of the Phillies rotation is still high with the great one-two punch of Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. But Zack Wheeler is coming back from thoracic outlet decompression surgery, Aaron Nola had a 6.01 ERA in 2025 and top prospect Andrew Painter is being counted on to fill at least some of the void created when Ranger Suarez departed for the Boston Red Sox in free agency this winter.”

Despite losing Suarez, the team retained Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto to continue playing alongside Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

“There are also concerns about just how good the lineup will be after the top trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner,” Kelly wrote. “Age also has to be a consideration here, with each of that trio in their age-33 seasons.”

After winning back-to-back NL East titles, two of five CBS Sports analysts are choosing the Phillies to win their third straight title this season.

“The Phillies’ core, led by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, is nearing the end of its window,” wrote CBS Sports’ Julian McWilliams. “This is the moment to capitalize before that opportunity slips. They should win the division, but the question remains how much longer this group can sustain its run.”

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However, three of those analysts are choosing the Mets to take the division.

“I know the projection systems love the Braves but I just do not see it at all,” wrote CBS Sports’ Kate Feldman. “The Mets and Phillies are pretty close to interchangeable at the top but I really like how David Stearns shook up the roster so aggressively this winter. The old Mets couldn’t win. Let’s see the new Mets try. The Phillies, on the other hand, are pretty much running it back and an already aging team is even older now.”

While CBS Sports analysts are divided between the Mets and Phillies on who will take the NL East, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince had a different prediction for the Phillies. After four consecutive postseason appearances, Castrovince believes they will miss the playoffs this year.

“Have you noticed Midsummer Classic hosts have been kinda cursed in recent years,” Castrovince wrote. “The 2023 Mariners had a 90% chance of reaching the playoffs and were in first place in the AL West on Sept. 2 but finished out of the running. The 2024 Rangers were the defending champs and finished with a losing record. The 2025 Braves were out of it long before the All-Star break arrived.

“Maybe the Phils can break that troubling trend, but their average age — while not quite 250, like the U.S. — is certainly getting up there, and it remains to be seen how much youngsters Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter can move the needle for them in meaningful roles.”

In terms of who will win the East, Castrovince is picking the Mets.

Three-time MLB All-Star Zack Wheeler has been close on multiple occasions to winning the NL Cy Young award, coming in second in 2021, sixth in 2023, and second again in 2024. Before his season was cut short by injury last August, the 36-year-old recorded a 2.71 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 24 games played.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb believes this season could potentially be the year Wheeler wins the award.

“This is probably too bold,” Gelb wrote. “But Wheeler, who turns 36 in May, was pitching at an elite level last season before a blood clot that later revealed thoracic outlet syndrome derailed everything. Wheeler did not throw a pitch after Aug. 15 and still finished ninth in the NL Cy Young Award voting.”

“He’s going to miss at least a few weeks to begin the 2026 season. But voters won’t remember that in September if Wheeler returns to form and dominates. It’s a lot to ask any pitcher, especially an older one, to make a seamless return from such a significant injury. Wheeler has projected confidence this spring as his recovery has progressed ahead of schedule. He should be back sometime in April.”

Phillies rookie outfielder Justin Crawford was drafted to the team with the 17th overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft. Crawford’s odds for winning Rookie of the Year were listed at 20-1 with Mets Nolan McLean (+250) and Pittsburgh Pirates’ Konnor Griffin (+330) as the early favorites.

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However, 97.5 Fanatic’s Dylan Mackinnon believes Crawford could walk out with the award.

“Crawford is the Phillies’ everyday outfielder,” Mackinnon wrote. “He is going to play a lot of games. At the bottom of the lineup, his protection is going to be Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper, meaning he will get pitches to hit. And we know with his speed, if he gets on base, he will rack up steals.

“All of that is a recipe for him to get a lot of love for Rookie Of The Year. He won’t have many HRs, which might hurt his case. But he can make up for that with great defense, steals, and doubles. It is a tough, crowded race for NL Rookie of the Year. But it being so open might help a dark horse, like Crawford, sneak in.”