For the Phillies, it still comes down to Trea Turner
Something dramatic is going to need to change for the Phillies to stop yo-yoing back and forth between .500 and a 90-win pace. The most likely something is the slumping leadoff hitter.
The Phillies entered the season as a team whose fate would be determined mostly by how little went wrong. That’s somewhat true for most teams, but it is especially true for a team that basically skipped a development cycle while building and retaining a roster via trades, free agency and contract extensions.
In Major League Baseball, there are three main sources of year-to-year improvement.
External additions via free agency and trade.
Internal additions from the minor league system.
Internal improvement from young players who have yet to reach their peak.
Every now and then, you’ll see a mid-career bump by a player like Cristopher Sánchez or Brandon Marsh. For the most part, though, a team’s upside is a function of its young potential breakout candidates combined with whatever payroll it adds. Otherwise, what you end up seeing will look a lot like what you’ve previously gotten, along with whatever regression occurs.
» READ MORE: The Phillies still need a right-handed bat. Let’s take an early dive into some options before the trade deadline.
That tracks, right?
Nearly halfway through the schedule, the Phillies are exactly what you’d expect to get if you took last year’s team and subbed in a leadoff hitter who is batting .223/.276/.334 instead of .304/.355/.457. Marsh’s quasi-breakout has given them enough margin for error to withstand the rookie inconsistency they’ve seen from Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter at the bottom of the lineup and the rotation. But something dramatic is going to need to change for the Phillies to stop yo-yoing back and forth between .500 and a 90-win pace. Right now, the most likely something is the aforementioned leadoff hitter.
Trea Turner is the man with the keys to the Phillies’ offense for the rest of the season. That’s really all there is to it. You can talk about the trade deadline, talk about the pitcher Painter was supposed to be, talk about the 31-16 record under Don Mattingly … all of it is noise. The Phillies simply aren’t a team that is capable of winning 95 games when one of their megacontract hitters isn’t hitting even half his worth.
Mattingly knows this. It’s the reason for the patience he continues to exhibit with Turner at the top of the lineup. Getting him right is the Phillies’ only hope at making a late charge at the Braves. That 31-16 record since Rob Thomson’s firing is glitter more than gold. Seven of those wins came against teams that are 12-plus games under .500. Another seven have come against the Marlins and Athletics. The Phillies are 5-7 against their four opponents who entered Thursday at least four games over .500. Series losses to the Brewers, Dodgers, and Guardians. Their 96-win pace over the last month is more representative than 113.
Even 96 wins is overstating things. We got a little taste of what a 96-win offense looks like a couple of days ago when Turner was out of the lineup with a sore wrist. Mattingly seized the opportunity to get a little funky with his lineup. The hot-hitting Marsh took the place of Turner in the leadoff spot, giving the Phillies three straight lefties at the top of the order with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper following Marsh.
Mattingly’s lack of regard for convention paid dividends. Marsh reached base twice, scored two runs, and had two RBIs, which is something Turner has not done since last August. The top three hitters in the Phillies’ order combined to reach base six times and score five runs in an 8-2 win. Sometimes, different is good.
David Murphy alerts
The next day, Mattingly went back to the old drawing board. Turner went 3-for-5 with a double, his first three-hit game since May 9. It needs to be the start of something, although he left Thursday’s game after again being hit by a pitch.
Turner is the reason everybody thinks the Phillies need to make a big splash at the trade deadline. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will be hard-pressed to find a hitter who would be more of an improvement than the Turner of last year returning. If he doesn’t, 87 wins is as good as it is going to get.
» READ MORE: What if the Phillies’ most impactful addition was a resurgent Trea Turner? He’s working to make it happen.
The Phillies don’t have many other pathways. They are long on veterans and short on potential upside. It is a daunting position to be in at this stage of a season.
Look at the teams that overperform their expectations and you’ll find that the differentiator is almost always someone who is at the stage of his career where improvement comes in leaps and bounds. Drake Baldwin will continue to improve for the Braves. Same goes for Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing with the Dodgers. Ben Rice with the Yankees. For all the hand-wringing about the Dodgers and their limitless payroll, they’ve also had five rookies hit 19-plus home runs since 2013.
The Phillies don’t have any obvious candidates right now. Harper and Schwarber have been about as good as you could hope. Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and J.T. Realmuto have been about what you’d expect. Turner’s is the one spot in the lineup where the potential for significant improvement exists. At least, they better hope it still exists.
Father's Day will hit a little differently this year for Don and Preston Mattingly. After years of working in baseball for different teams, often on opposite sides of the country, they are together with the Phillies as the first father-and-son manager-and-GM combination ever. Preston Mattingly joins Phillies Extra to discuss working with his dad, as well as the Phillies' decision to demote Andrew Painter to the minors and their preparations for the trade deadline. Watch here.
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