Sources say Phillies should be one of the top suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Here’s why he could be a fit.

The Phillies have done “significant work” on the star Japanese pitcher, who is expected to land a massive deal with an MLB team this offseason.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in Nippon Professional Baseball history.Read moreEugene Hoshiko / AP

by Alex Coffey

Published Nov. 16, 2023, 10:00 a.m. ET

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said publicly that signing Aaron Nola is their top offseason priority. But Nola, a free agent, has plenty of suitors, and it’s no guarantee that he returns to Philadelphia.

If he doesn’t, the Phillies are strongly considering right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto as a top-of-the-rotation starter to sign in free agency. Like many teams, the Phillies have sent scouts to see Yamamoto, but sources say their interest in him is far from cursory.

“They’ve done significant work on Yamamoto,” said one National League scout. “Most teams have sent scouts to see him, but I would say the Phillies should be considered one of the top five or six suitors for his services.”

It makes sense. Yamamoto, 25, is one of the most accomplished pitchers in Nippon Professional Baseball history. He’s a two-time Pacific League MVP winner, a three-time Eiji Sawamura Award winner — given to the top starting pitcher in the league — a three-time Japanese Triple Crown winner, and a two-time Pacific League Gold Glove Award winner.

He has played on a lot of winning teams, too. He won a championship with the NPB Orix Buffaloes in 2022 and helped Japan win the World Baseball Classic this year. That type of track record would be appealing for a team attempting to win the World Series after a 2023 playoff run that ended in the NLCS.

Yamamoto has a 1.82 ERA in 897 innings in seven seasons with the Buffaloes, allowing just 206 walks while striking out 922. He throws five pitches: a split-finger, a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a curveball, and a cutter/slider. In the 2023 regular season, he sat 94-95 mph, but his velocity ticked up in the playoffs, reaching 98-99 mph with some regularity.

“He is a very good manipulator of the baseball,” said another major league scout, who has seen Yamamoto in person. “He can make it run, spin, sink, cut, curve, and dive. It’s just something that he does naturally. He has a natural feel for the baseball in his hand.”

As with most pitchers who transition to Major League Baseball from different leagues, there is a degree of unknown. Pitchers in the NPB often work on six days of rest. Yamamoto pitched deep into games, but logged 23 starts for the Buffaloes last season. For reference, Nola and starter Zack Wheeler each made 32 starts for the Phillies in 2023.

The baseball used in the NPB is tackier than the one used in MLB, which can sometimes affect pitch characteristics. The mounds in the two leagues can vary, too. Pitchers in the NPB don’t have to travel as far to play opposing teams as they do in MLB.

And of course, there are cultural differences between the two countries that can make a transition difficult. The Phillies are one of only five teams that have not signed a player directly from NPB. Whether this would matter to Yamamoto is unclear, but it’s worth noting.

Despite all of this, there are reasons to believe that Yamamoto would be successful in the big leagues. The MLB ball was used in the most recent World Baseball Classic. Some NPB players struggled with it, but Yamamoto did not. His pitch characteristics — like his velocity, spin and vertical movement — remained largely the same.

He had a 2.45 ERA in 7⅓ innings in the WBC, holding hitters to a .160 batting average. It’s a small sample size, but scouts were paying attention.

“He’s a guy with big weapons,” a National League scout said. “He’s got a split-finger that is top of the scale. It’s an equalizer. It’s a pitch that’s going to allow him to have immediate success because he can throw it for a first strike, he can use it to get swing-and-miss, and really, if all else fails, it’ll allow him to pitch at the major league level.

“He’s a pretty good athlete. His velocity in the playoffs spiked to where he was touching 99 mph. He had good velocity to begin with, but I think that increase provides even more optimism for his ability to have success here. He has a lot of different ways to attack hitters and go about navigating a lineup multiple times. He’s an athletic strike thrower, with velocity and a dominant out-pitch — his split-finger.”

There are two risks worth mentioning with the Phillies’ pursuit of Yamamoto. First is his stature. It’s unknown if the Phillies view his size — 5-foot-10, 176 pounds — as a concern. There are plenty of examples of shorter right-handed pitchers who have succeeded. But his stature — combined with the increased workload that he’ll encounter in MLB — has led to some questions about his durability over the next few years.

The second risk lies in timing. The Buffaloes have yet to post Yamamoto, but are reportedly supposed to do so “any day.” Teams will have to pay a posting fee to negotiate with him. That fee will be determined based on the contract Yamamoto signs with an MLB club. He is reportedly seeking in the neighborhood of $200 million or more.

Like Nola, Yamamoto is in the top tier of free-agent starting pitchers. It’ll likely be a long process as he talks to other teams. If the Phillies aren’t able to sign to Nola and choose to wait for Yamamoto, as other top-tier starting pitchers come off the board, there’s a chance they won’t get him, and are left with less appealing options.

It’ll be a tricky situation to navigate. But starting pitching is a top priority for the Phillies this offseason, so for now, they’ll remain in the mix.