"Home prices are expected to continue to fall throughout 2009 and into early 2010, finally drifting lower and bottoming in 2011," according to a team of JPMorgan Securities Inc. bond analysts headed by Matthew Jozoff, after analyzing Case-Schiller, National Association of Realtors and California Association of Realtors home price data.
Plus there's a special glut of homes priced at over $750,000. "Higher-priced homes are just not moving," Jozoff wrote, citing Realtors' Association data showing one-and-a-half to five years' worth of unsold higher-end homes on the market. "Prices on more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012," with prices down "in excess of 60%", compared to a national average of 40%.
Bloomberg LP summarizes the JPMorgan findings here.