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Home prices will fall til 2011, mansions til 2012: report

Home prices will likely keep falling into next year, and there's a such a glut of homes priced at over $1 million that they'll likely keep falling into 2011: report

"Home prices are expected to continue to fall throughout 2009 and into early 2010, finally drifting lower and bottoming in 2011," according to a team of JPMorgan Securities Inc. bond analysts headed by Matthew Jozoff, after analyzing Case-Schiller, National Association of Realtors and California Association of Realtors home price data.

Plus there's a special glut of homes priced at over $750,000. "Higher-priced homes are just not moving," Jozoff wrote, citing Realtors' Association data showing one-and-a-half to five years' worth of unsold higher-end homes on the market. "Prices on more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012," with prices down "in excess of 60%", compared to a national average of 40%.

Bloomberg LP summarizes the JPMorgan findings here.