Week 4 NFL picks

Both of the 49ers-Rams games went to overtime last year, and one of them ended in a tie. Both teams are coming off poundings Week 3, but clearly the 49ers remain the better team.

This game is a very tough call. Young, improving team vs the Super Bowl Champs who lost a bunch of vets and are seemingly trending in the other direction. In each of their last two games, the Ravens have not cracked 300 total offensive yards. Meanwhile, E.J. Manuel has avoided rookie mistakes, as he has just just 1 INT through the first 3 games. I like the Bills with the home upset.

Brian Hoyer had a surprising debut as the Browns' starting QB, throwing for over 300 yards and 3 TDs in a win over the Vikings in Minny. Ain't happening against this talented Bengals D.

The Lions are favored in this game? Really?!?

The Bears are as opportunistic a team as you'll find in the NFL, and the Lions are as undisciplined a team as you'll find in the NFL. Bad combo. The Bears own the Lions, as they've gone 9-1 against them the last 5 years. Bears go to 4-0.

Name one thing the Giants have done well this season.

(Jeopardy music playing)

Too much to fix against a stout Chiefs D. Despite an extremely blah offense, the Chiefs go to 4-0.

Ew, gross matchup. For as much as I think the Vikings are garbage, I feel that people are going to continue to pick the Steelers to win games this year simply because they're used to seeing them win. But they stink too. And for that reason, I'm going against the grain and picking them to lose to one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL. I kinda feel like I'm calling with a pair of 6's.

The Mike Glennon era in Tampa begins, as Josh Freeman has stunk this season. I watched Glennon at the Senior Bowl and came away very impressed with his arm strength. This will likely help Vincent Jackson's numbers, but the knock on Glennon in college was that he didn't handle a good pass rush very well. Expect the Cardinals to send the heat and force some big plays on D. This is another game in which I'm puzzled by the team that is favored, in this case, the Bucs. Cards big.

Pencil me in for whoever the Jaguars play every week for the rest of the season.

Very interesting matchup. On the eye test, the Texans haven't looked all that impressive so far this season, and yet, they're in the Top 10 in rushing yards, passing yards, rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. I just trust the Seahawks and their defense more.

Anybody can score on the Washington team. Even the Raiders. The Washington team has more talent, but have given me no reason to think they can beat an NFL team right now, and until they do, I feel it would be foolish to pick them to do so.

Somehow, the Jets and Titans are both 2-1. When in doubt on two overperforming confusing teams, take the home team.

The Eagles got shredded Week 2 by a QB (Philip Rivers) who got his team up to the line quickly, identified the defense, then checked to a more favorable call. Peyton Manning is the master at that.

Or a shortened version of this pick could just read... Peyton Manning is good, and the Eagles' defense isn't.

Philip Rivers' numbers on the season: 70 for 100 (70%), 798 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT, 116.2 QB rating. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL with 13 sacks, but DeMarcus Ware and Co may be negated by Rivers' ability to get the ball out quickly.

And yes, this would mean 0-4 for the terrible NFC East.

I hate to be the "need it more" guy, but the 1-2 Falcons could fall 3 games behind the Saints if they lose. They "need this game more" (sorry) than the 3-0 Pats. Whatever the Falcons have in the way of an "A+ game plan," they'll roll it out Sunday night.

I've picked against the Dolphins every week so far this season, and they've burned me all 3 weeks. I'm going back for a 4th helping of crow.