Week 14 NFL picks

Draft implications!!! If the season ended today, the Texans would be picking first, and the Jags second. Here's how the first half of the first round would go:

I haven't picked the Jags once this season, so what the hell.

There are 5 undefeated home teams: Seahawks, Saints, Patriots, Broncos, and Bengals. The Bengals and Colts are more than likely going to win their divisions, and they're chasing the Patriots for the 2 seed and a first round bye.

Andrew Luck is the young golden boy of the NFL, but the Colts' offense is average.

• 20th in yards per game

• 17th in yards per play

• 19th in first downs per game

• 16th in 3rd down conversion %

• 14th in points per game

Their defense isn't very good either:

• 22nd in yards allowed per game

• 24th in yards allowed per play

• 16th in first downs allowed per game

• 21st in 3rd down % on defense

• 12th in points allowed per game

The Colts are beneficiaries of playing in an awful AFC South, where their division rivals have a combined record of 10-26, and a point differential of -274. Their wins over the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers seem like a long time ago.

It's really hard to pick this game, not knowing whether or not Aaron Rodgers will play. If he plays, this pick is a no-brainer. If not, both of these teams stink anyway, so I guess it makes some sense to pick the crappy team playing at home.

If Josh Gordon hadn't gotten suspended, he'd be on pace for 1998 receiving yards.

But obviously, Patriots all day.

The worst point differentials in the NFL:

The Jets are even worse than their 5-7 record would indicate, and somehow, Matt McGloin will be the best QB on the field at the Meadowlands this weekend.

The Lions gobble up yardage, which is fine and good, but...

The Dolphins have actually played pretty well lately. In their last 5 games they've beaten the Bengals, Chargers, and smoked the Jets. In their two losses during that span, they played the Panthers tough, and lost to an improving Bucs team. Still, it's hard to take the warm weather team in Pittsburgh in December, and the Steelers have won 3 straight at home.

The Bills are good at home, but they stink on the road. The Bucs, meanwhile, are playing better and might be fooling themselves into keeping Greg Schiano around for another year.

Ah, the Racism Bowl! Actually, here'a a handy scientific racism meter that rates team mascot names. Can't wait to read the angry comments in the comment section!

The Vikings are a competent football team when they face teams like the Packers and Bears, who know the run is coming, but can't stop it anyway. That's not the case with the Ravens, who are 6th in the NFL in rush defense and have only allowed 2 rushing TDs all season, which is best in the NFL.

Whenever you need Christian Ponder to do his part, that's not ideal.

Your weekly "Broncos' offensive TD drive stat"

• Broncos offensive TDs: 55

• Titans offensive TDs: 27

And my same point as always... They're going to outscore teams more often than not.

I was doing some research on the Rams, and just happened upon RB Zac Stacy's profile picture on ESPN.com. Is it just me or is his head disproportionally small in comparison to the rest of his upper torso?

Anyway, Cardinals.

After beating Washington last week, the Giants have won enough games where they're safely out of the Jadeaveon Clowney sweepstakes, so it's OK to root against them again.

And lose they will to a team with the same record that is a lot better.

The Niners are 2.5 point favorites over the Seahawks, which is surprising, in my opinion. I'm not sure what Vegas knows, but here are Colin Kaepernick's numbers in his 2 games against Seattle:

The combined score in those two games: Seattle 71, San Fran 16.

Both games were in Seattle, so there's that, but that's complete domination nevertheless.

I think the Panthers are the better team, and I love the matchup between the Panthers' DL against the Saints' OL. It's so tempting to take the Panthers here, but I just can't get myself to go that way in the Superdome.

As noted in the Hierarchy/Obituary this week, teams are running right down the Bears' throats, and there's basically nothing they can do about it. This game is actually a pick 'em. I can't see why. It's not exactly as if the Cowboys have a good defense themselves, but Chicago has been a terrible football team the last half of this season. Maybe the Bears' crappy field will help them? Eagles fans will have to hope so, because Dallas is a better team.

Not to mention, the Cowboys basically get a bye week playing on Thursday afternoon last week, and then again two Mondays later.