Snow: The flood threat

In the interest of giving equal time to the positive, we noted in this morning's Inquirer that the expected persistence of wintry conditions might help stave off major flooding.

Although a month's worth of precipitation is locked in the snow, it is entirely possible that it will vanish gradually under the spell of the February sun.

As noted, the snowpack in the headwater regions of the Schuylkill and Delaware River is comparatively paltry, and that means less raw material for flooding down this way.

One other factor was mentioned by Nolan Doesken, a climatologist who is an expert on snow matters and author of an excellent snow booklet.

Doesken, the president of the naitonal association of climatologists, notes that before the snow attack started, it had not been bitterly cold around here, thus the soil wasn't frozen rock solid.

The sponginess probably has allowed some of the snow melt to seep into the ground, rather than just run off.

He also points out that sooner or later, it's going to warm up in a hurry; March is less than two weeks away. More precipitation is likely before any warm-up.

That doesn't mean flooding is inevitable. As National Weather Service hydrologist Tom Baumgartner has pointed out, it is possible to melt a snow pack gently.

For now, anyway, no flood threat is imminent.