Bill Conlin | Taking Bonds down to size

THE VOICE of Russ Hodges ("The Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant'') will make the call of this century's "Shot Heard Round the World.''

It will go like this: "Swing and a long drive . . . Up she goes and out of the ballpark and Barry Bonds has splashed career home run No. 556 into McCovey Cove . . . ''

In San Francisco's AT&T Park, they'll be going crazy, of course. Just as Russ Hodges described the hysterical aftermath of the Ralph Branca meatball Bobby Thomson lined no more than 300 feet into the second deck of the Polo Grounds to beat the Dodgers for the 1951 National League pennant. They'll be going crazy . . . going crazy . . .

because to the fans of Bonds and a Giants team he has helped mire in last place, the home run will be real-time No. 756. A commish-bating, Hammer-deflating asterisk on the scandal-stained Summer of 2007.

Barry Bonds will have strapped on his black body armor like Sir Mordred riding to a joust, hefted his undersized maple lance, squeezed his size 10 head into a size 9 batting helmet and limped to the plate for his sordid rendezvous with a history most of baseball would prefer never had happened.

But he is not fooling Russ Hodges, or you, or me.

We have used Barry's ERA to put the towering number that 756 represents into a context adjusted for inflation. We will use his Enhancement Reduction Average (ERA) to determine with reasonable accuracy what his home run total really would be had he never taken any of those really neat vitamins, never BALCOed up.

What goes up, after all, must go down. Sir Isaac Newton's Law insists on it.

First, however, let's pay a visit to the age of 37. It's an age when NFL running backs are long retired, NBA players are literally on their last legs and only the most elite baseball players are still performing near their peak skill levels.

At age 37, Henry Aaron wristed a remarkable, career-best 47 homers in just 139 games.

At age 37, Babe Ruth, the man whose record of 714 homers Aaron broke in 1974, hit 41 big flys.

At age 37, Roger Maris, who broke Ruth's single-season record of 60 homers in 1961, was in his third year out of baseball; Bell's Palsy had forced his retirement at age 34.

At age 37, Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs. He needed just 476 at-bats of the 2001 season to do it. Seventy-three home runs . . .

Wait, there's more. In 2004 at age 40, Bonds jacked 45 homers in just 373 ABs, an astounding homer to at-bat ratio of 8.28. Aaron hit 20 homers at age 40. Ruth hit the final six of his career as a Boston Brave. Maris was running the beer distributorship Cardinals owner Gussie Busch gave him.

When Bonds hits No. 756 - but only No. 556 to you and me - any day or week now, it will be his 22nd of the season. Two days ago, he turned 43.

So, let's get into this ERA thing. Let's rewind Barry's career to the 7 years he spent as a wasp-waisted Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder so sleek and fleet Jim Leyland used him to lead off. Barry actually spoke to me once in those days, at the batting cage before an NLCS game against the Braves. He said, "This morning I watched you and those other bleeps on that bleep TV show you bleeps do on ESPN. You bleepers don't know bleep . . . ''

With that, he jumped into the cage for his final hacks. I felt flattered. Barry does not initiate conversation with just anybody. He assigns his bleeps with care.

During those 7 whippet years in Three Rivers Stadium, Bonds averaged 25.14 homers. His next 7 seasons found him battling the gales of San Francisco's Candlestick Park, rated the National League's toughest hitter's stadium. Nevertheless, Barry's home-run output increased to an average of 38.42. A bigger and more mature-looking athlete had upped his home-run output for the 7 years by 34.6.

So, we're lopping 93 homers - 34.6 - off the 269 he hit his first 7 years in The City for an adjusted 176. He gets to keep all of the 176 Pittsburgh homers, of course.

OK, the next 5 seasons, Bonds averaged 51.6 homers. But, considering advancing age, injuries and the amazing number of walks issued to an athlete who had grown to Michelin Man proportions, we will keep the penalty at the same 34.6 percent. The ERA deduction for his most productive spurt is 89, for an adjusted 169 long balls.

Barry will have hit an additional 53 bombs since then, including the one that allegedly will break Hank Aaron's record.

We'll cut them by the ERA penalty of 34.6 percent to 35.

So, the "au natural'' Pittsburgh 176 dongs plus the ERA San Francisco total of 380 comes to 556. And that's not a half-bad total. It puts him between Reggie Jackson and Mike Schmidt on the all-time list.

Hard to believe manager Jim Leyland's wiry former leadoff  hitter wound up hitting so many home runs. Why, Barry used to be just about the same size as Hammerin' Hank when he broke The Babe's record.

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Send e-mail to bill1chair@aol.com. For recent columns, go to http://go.philly.com/conlin.