John Baer: Can Onorato and Sestak defy a little-known Pa. election trend?
BY NOW, YOU'VE heard about one historic Pennsylvania voting trend: switching parties in the governor's office every eight years. You probably even know the trend stretches back before our governors were legally able to serve two consecutive, four-year terms.
BY NOW, YOU'VE heard about one historic Pennsylvania voting trend: switching parties in the governor's office every eight years.
You probably even know the trend stretches back before our governors were legally able to serve two consecutive, four-year terms.
That started with Democrat Milton Shapp, first elected in 1970. But the eight-year itch started after the election of Republican James Duff in 1946, and has held true since.
If it holds again next week, Republican Tom Corbett succeeds Democrat Ed Rendell. Current polling data suggests that'll happen.
But there's another historic trend you might not be so familiar with. Since 1950, in open-seat races for governor in which there is also a Senate race, Pennsylvania voters split their party choices four out of six times.
In the only years voters did not ticket-split, 1950 and 1994, they elected Republicans. Never have state voters elected a Democratic senator and a Democratic governor in years when the governor's office is open. And voter registration numbers seem to have little bearing on outcomes. In the '50s, Republicans outnumbered Democrats and in the '60s, Democrats held a very narrow edge that grew in the 1970s and since. Today, Democrats hold a 1.2 million-voter edge.
So is this ticket-splitting merely an arcane electoral fact or a predictor of next week's results?
Is it good news for Democratic Senate candidate Joe Sestak, whose race against Republican Pat Toomey is tighter than Corbett's against Democrat Dan Onorato, or is it just a meaningless memory?
I searched the state seeking expert opinions.
Michael Hagen, Temple University political-science associate professor, says he's aware of the trend but wonders if it's a quirk or a factor.
"I don't think that I would interpret it to mean Pennsylvanians necessarily have a powerful desire to make sure neither party dominates," says Hagen.
"What it does mean," he adds, "is that Pennsylvanians are not prisoners of partisanship . . . not averse to splitting our tickets. So whichever candidate wins at the top of the ticket his coattails tend not to be long."
Which sorta sounds like maybe good news for Sestak, no?
But W. Wesley McDonald, political-science professor at Elizabethtown College, in central Pennsylvania, makes another point.
"Because all the polling data that I'm looking at strongly suggests that this election is likely to be a 'wave' election, I think it likely Pennsylvania will follow the pattern of the 1950 and 1994 elections," McDonald says.
He notes that in both those years Republicans were swept into office due to unpopular policies of incumbent Democratic presidents: Truman and Clinton.
In 1950, with inflation high and the nation at war in Korea, Democrats lost 27 House seats and five Senate seats but maintained narrow control of Congress.
In 1994, Clinton was seen as more liberal as president than as a candidate and got hammered over deficits and health-care reform (sound familiar?). Democrats lost 54 House seats, eight Senate seats and control of Congress.
So maybe this year's results fall between those in 1950 and 1994, or maybe all this is (no pun intended) an academic exercise.
For example, University of Pittsburgh political-science professor Susan Hansen calls our voting trends, "Interesting factoids, not unlikely in a competitive state, but [do] not necessarily predict any future elections."
There you have it.
And, for the curious, here are winners of past open-seat governor races with senators elected the same year: 1950, Republican John Fine, Republican James Duff; 1958, Democrat David Lawrence, Republican Hugh Scott; 1962, Republican William Scranton, Democrat Joe Clark; 1970, Democrat Shapp, Republican Scott; 1986, Democrat Robert Casey, Republican Arlen Specter; 1994, Republican Tom Ridge, Republican Rick Santorum.
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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