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Bolaris: NYE forecast, and tracking Thursday snowstorm

What we know

Your New Year's Eve celebration will be cold but dry as the fireworks go boom and the ball drops. Temperatures will hover in the mid-20s, and the wind chill will be in the teens.

New Year's Day and the Mummers parade will be cold and dry with temps in the 30s.

Looking at all the computer guidance coming in today, the storm picture is coming together, but with still some significant variables.

The set-up

A Miller B type storm - with one storm sending its energy to a secondary storm which becomes the primary one, and in many cases rapidly intensifies - is the most difficult storm to forecast as things really don't become clear until 12-24 hours before. The exact location, track, and intensity are critical for accurate snow forecasts.

The way I see it right now is for the secondary storm to form east of Virginia Beach, intensify quickly, but track more with an easterly jog than north, which is typical of Miller B storms.

If this hold trues, an all-out snow storm with blizzard-like conditions possible would be confined to Eastern Long Island, the capes of Masachusetts and Boston, with 6-12 inches of snow and wind chills below zero on Friday morning.

For Philly and surrounding suburbs as of now, we should miss the brunt of the storm, but still be dealing with accumulating snow, strong winds and dangerous wind chills dropping below zero by Friday morning.

Snow accumulations are a very tough call right now, but early estimates indicate a high level (60-70 percent chance) storm potential of 4 inches, and a low-level threat (40 percent chance) of more than 4 inches.

Keep in mind, the expected accumulation will adjust higher or lower depending on future trends, but I wanted to give you something to base your plans on.


During the day on Thursday we could see some sporadic snow, even some rain, and sleet mixing in for city and across southern New Jersey and Delaware.

The brunt of the storm will be Thursday night with the best chance of accumulating snow, increasing winds, falling temps into the teens and any liquid goes to all snow. Dangerous wind chills late Thursday night into Friday dropping below zero.

This is an extremely difficult forecast (meaning high bust potential) so I will keep you updated and let you know of any changes.

Happy New Year ... be safe.

Eagles game forecast

8:10 p.m. Saturday night at Lincoln Financial Field. Kickoff temperature: 26, with wind a non-factor.

John Bolaris