Among African American voters, a push for Clinton - and nagging worry

Valarie Hayden works hard for Hillary Clinton, helping to staff phone banks in the evenings and knocking on doors after church - even on her birthday.

"I'm ready to vote. I'm ready for her to win," the volunteer said last week at a West Philadelphia campaign office, set up in what used to be an Anna's Linens shop.

Hayden believes the Democratic nominee for president is smart, highly experienced, and eager to fight for others. Yet she worries some African American voters might not be as passionate this year, after the dynamic turnouts that helped elect and reelect the nation's first black president.

Ten days before the balloting, questions linger about whether Clinton will face "an enthusiasm gap" among African American voters - and if so, whether that could open a door for Donald Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

The polls say that won't happen, that Clinton leads by 5 to 7 percentage points. Her campaign says it's taking nothing for granted and working for every vote.

"We need to support this woman," said Mary Kweku, a Ghanaian immigrant and Clinton volunteer, who lights candles for the candidate at Catholic Mass. "It's time to vote for an intelligent woman."

But Republicans say they see an opportunity in Philadelphia to deny Clinton the huge numbers that drive Democratic victories statewide.

"Let's face it, nobody's excited about Hillary Clinton," said Joseph DeFelice, chair of the Republican City Committee. "African Americans aren't excited about her. I definitely think there's an opportunity."

In 2008, city voters gave Obama a lead of 478,759 over the GOP's John McCain. Four years later, Obama's margin vs. Mitt Romney reached 492,339.

City voter registration has fallen in both parties during the last eight years, though Democrats saw the greater erosion, down 51,516.

If you subtract that number, DeFelice said, and figure Trump can add 30,000 to 50,000 votes to Romney's total, then the Democrats' margin in Philadelphia drops significantly, by about 100,000 votes.

Pennsylvania - second only to Florida in electoral votes among battleground states - hasn't voted for a GOP nominee since 1988. This year the Keystone State is crucial for both candidates but especially for Trump, who has fewer paths to win 270 electoral votes.

In Pennsylvania the important letter is T, formed by the red Republican areas at the top and center of the state, and the blue Democratic bulges of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on either side.

Democratic candidates need big margins in the cities and near suburbs to overcome Republican gains in the middle of the state. In Philadelphia, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 7-1, and African Americans make up 44 percent of the population.

"I think early on there was some concern about the level of enthusiasm," said City Council President Darrell L. Clarke, a Clinton supporter. "I don't think that's a concern anymore. Thanks to Donald Trump. The simple reality is he has said and done some things that have not only created a level of enthusiasm to vote against him in the African American community, but pretty much all of the city of Philadelphia."

African American voters have been dismayed by Trump's history of racist comments and his questioning the legitimacy of the first black president, leading the "birther movement" that falsely claimed Obama wasn't born in the U.S.

But Calvin Tucker predicts Trump will run better among African Americans in Philadelphia than anyone expects.

The chair of the Philadelphia Black Republican Council, perhaps Trump's most prominent black supporter in Pennsylvania, said a group of friends he's known for 30 years, all Democrats, have pulled him aside one by one to confide that they're voting for Trump - and ask him to keep that secret.

"There's a silent vote out there that's going to come forward," Tucker said. "We believe there's enough votes that are not showing up in the polling and the like that we can win the state of Pennsylvania."

Tucker, a financial consultant, believes Trump can win as much as 12 percent of the black vote, compared with polls that show his support in the low single digits.

On Wednesday in North Carolina, Trump pledged a "new deal for black America," promising "safe communities, great education, and high-paying jobs" to a voting bloc that strongly supports Clinton.

"There is going to be an enthusiasm gap, but it's not going to be for Hillary Clinton," said Malcolm Kenyatta, a 26-year-old member of Pennsylvania African Americans for Hillary. "I want a president that's going to talk to issues that people in my neighborhood in North Philly are talking about."

That includes a raise in the minimum wage, on which Trump has flip-flopped and which Clinton has supported with stipulations.

Sure, Kenyatta said, Obama's election and reelection were dynamic moments for African Americans. And Clinton has been on the national stage a long time, which some view as a negative.

"But for a community like mine that wants to see results, there's a lot of excitement," he said. "She's somebody who didn't show up yesterday."

A recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll among likely voters in Pennsylvania shows 89 percent of African Americans support Clinton and 5 percent support Trump.

Clinton supporter and contributor Larry Ceisler, the prominent public-relations agent, thinks there was a time when those numbers might have moved closer in Philadelphia.

He was part of a team assembled in the mid-2000s to try to build the Trumpstreet Casino at the old Budd Co. site in Nicetown-Tioga. And he thought Trump did well in presenting his plans to the mostly African American neighborhood, a poorer community where jobs are scarce.

"When he started to run, I thought, hey, if this guy makes it to a general election, he has the potential to do well in the African American vote."

About a hundred people gathered on Independence Mall this month to rally support for Trump among Americans of color.

"We have to tell the Democratic Party that they don't own us, like we're slaves still," said Daphne Goggins, an African American Republican ward leader from North Philadelphia. "Black people need to wake up."

On Wednesday, Gerald A. Price stopped by the Clinton office in West Philadelphia, dressed in the purple and gold of Omega Psi Phi fraternity, and worried that voters who feel blocked from good jobs and schools could dull Clinton's turnout.

"They have this attitude, 'I ain't going to vote,' " he said.

He wanted to alert the phone-bank supervisors: He's ready to drive voters to the polls on Election Day.

jgammage@phillynews.com

215-854-4906@JeffGammage