Hurricane Florence weakens, but could threaten U.S. coast next week
There are a number of factors that could affect the hurricane between now and when it approaches the East Coast.
With Hurricane Florence spinning menacingly in the open Atlantic and emerging as at least a remote threat to the East Coast, meteorologists already are getting the willies about the potential for an outbreak of fake news.
"It's days and days away," said Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist and hurricane specialist with AccuWeather, adding that Florence wouldn't have any impacts on the U.S. coasts until the middle of next week at the earliest.
These two tweets from meteorologists that address radically different outcomes:
Late Thursday morning was still better than 1,000 miles east-southeast of the easternmost Caribbean islands, had lost some of its fearful symmetry, and was barely qualifying as a hurricane with peak winds of 80 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
On Wednesday it had mutated to a Category 4 hurricane, with peak winds of 130 mph, and the hurricane predicted it would regroup and be packing winds of 120 mph by the end of the weekend.
Kottlowski said Florence was in a fierce battle with shearing winds from the southwest on Thursday.
Hurricanes rely on columns of rising air to maintain and gain strength, and Florence's lower-level circulation has become detached from the upper levels, he said.
Florence's temporary weakening, however, is not necessarily a good development for the U.S. Atlantic coast.
The hurricane center's projected path has taken a noticeable turn to the west, compared with Wednesday's, and that's probably a function of the weakening, Kottlowski said.
As a weaker storm — and one that is relatively small in areal coverage — it would be more susceptible to the east-to-west trade winds that act as steering currents.
"My concern is there is one reliable model that took it due west," he said, but added, "we're telling people don't get fixed on anything right now. Let's let that thing play out."
By far this has been the briskest period of a heretofore unexceptional hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
The remnants of Gordon were centered along the Arkansas-Mississippi border, yet another tropical system is expected to form well east of Florence by early next week, and a disturbance in western Africa has a good shot at becoming a storm.
"It doesn't surprise me that this is an active period," said Kottlowski. Conditions in the basin are generally favorable for a harvest of storms, he said, "so there's a greater opportunity for tropical development."
This could well be a bullish period for plywood sales.