I THOUGHT last year's tournament was wide-open. I did not think it was so wide-open that Connecticut was going to win. I would have gone 15 deep before even considering the Huskies.
I do not think this tournament is open at all. I do think there are a few teams that could beat Kentucky. I just don't think any will actually beat the Wildcats. I have seen 40-0 since about mid-January. I still see it.
This tournament is really top-heavy. If you are looking for upsets, you have come to the wrong place.
The top seven seeds (Kentucky, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Virginia and Gonzaga) have combined to go 218-17. The bottom half of the bracket has lost 300 times.
The hardest calls for me were Villanova over Virginia and Arizona over Wisconsin. If those are the Elite 8 games, we are in for a treat.
Jay Wright's team has shooters all over the court, tons of experience, an explosive bench and a post presence that must be honored. And the Wildcats play like every possession matters. Do I think they would beat Kentucky in a national title game if it came to that? No. Do I think they would think that way, too? Definitely not. They believe they can win.
The biggest risk was getting Utah through the South all the way to the title game against Kentucky. The Utes are no lock to beat Stephen F. Austin in the first game, but at some point you have to take a stand. And that is mine.
I love to watch Duke on offense, but I don't trust its defense. And, judging by how often his team has played zone this season, Coach K does not trust it either.
Iowa State's offense is breathtaking, but its defense is average and you can only depend on giant comebacks for so long. Georgetown is either really good (looked like the best team in the country when it beat Villanova 2 months ago) or really bad.
I love the offense/defense numbers on Gonzaga and Utah. I think they are really close, but when in doubt, like at the track, take the higher odds - or, in this case, higher seed.