BARRING INJURY or some unforeseen off-the-field incident, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston will be the first two quarterbacks taken in the draft this spring, possibly first and second picks overall.

The biggest quarterback question right now is, who will be No. 3?

NFL scouts acknowledge there is a considerable dropoff after Mariota and Winston. Nothing that has happened at this week's Senior Bowl practices has changed that.

"None of the six guys here has looked very good," an NFC personnel executive told the Daily News.

With UCLA's Brett Hundley turning down an invitation to participate in the Senior Bowl, Baylor's Bryce Petty, who is one of the three quarterbacks for the North squad, had a chance to gain a foothold as the next-best QB after Mariota and Winston. But he has struggled mightily.

"He's just not accurate," the scout said. "The best thing he does is throw it down the field. He can do that. But [in the NFL], it's about reading defenses. He has to see it before he throws it, which is difficult for a lot of these guys coming out of spread offenses. Hundley's that way, too. In some regard, so is Mariota.

"They didn't play in a traditional offense. They were throwing to open receivers. In the NFL, you have to throw it before they're open. That's why EJ Manuel is struggling. That's why Geno Smith is struggling.

"And that's why Andrew Luck [who played in a pro-style offense at Stanford] is not struggling. Andrew probably trusts his arm too much, which is why he throws a lot of interceptions. But at least he'll throw it. He'll throw the in-cut to Reggie Wayne. He'll throw the skinny post to T.Y. [Hilton] before he's open.

"Petty's not that guy right now. None of these guys are right now. These six guys down here [in Mobile], it's all about, 'Oh, I see him [open]. I'm going to throw it to him.' "

Figuring the Eagles

* The Eagles' offense finished ninth in third-down efficiency this season, converting 43.5 percent of its third-down opportunities. That's an improvement over last season, when they ranked 12th with a 39.0 percent success rate. That's impressive when you consider that they didn't have a lot of manageable third-down situations. The Eagles had the ninth-lowest rate (25.3 percent) of third downs of 3 yards or fewer. They converted 65.0 percent of them, which was the seventh-best mark in the league. They were first last year (66.7 percent). Chip Kelly's lack of faith in his run game was evident on third down. The Eagles ran on just 45 percent of their third-down plays of 3 yards or fewer. Last year, they ran 74.1 percent of the time on third-and-3 or less. What's interesting about Kelly's reluctance to run in short-yardage situations is that the Eagles finished second to Pittsburgh in converting situations of 2 yards or less into first downs (70.0 percent) and had a league-best 79.6 percent first-down success rate when they ran with 2 yards or less to go. LeSean McCoy had just 15 rushing attempts on third down the entire season, even though he averaged 5.1 yards per carry on third down.

Third-and-3 Total

or less 3rd downs Pct.

CLE. . . 38 207 18.3

TB. . . 43 203 21.2

JAX. . . 47 216 21.7

ARI. . . 51 224 22.8

DET. . . 52 223 23.3

SEA. . . 51 212 24.1

MIN. . . 53 211 25.1

NYG. . . 59 235 25.1

PHI. . . 60 237 25.3

IND. . . 55 217 25.3

* The Eagles gave up a league-high 28 pass plays of 30-plus yards this season. That was the third most by a defense in the last 5 years. The Chiefs gave up 32 last season. The Eagles gave up 29 in 2010. Eleven of this season's year's 28 came on first down, when the Eagles usually were in their base defense. Nine were on second down, and eight on third down.

* The Eagles had a minus-6.8 passer-rating differential (84.8 passer rating, 91.6 opponent rating). That was the 10th-lowest in the league. They were one of just two teams with a winning record that had a negative passer-rating differential. The other was Arizona (-4.2). A look at the teams with the best and worst passer-rating differentials:

Pass Opp. Pass

Rating Rating Diff. W-L

1. GB. . . 109.9 82.0 +27.9 12-4

2. DAL. . . 110.9 88.5 +22.4 12-4

3. DEN. . . 101.3 82.3 +19.0 12-4

4. SEA. . . 95.1 80.4 +14.7 12-4

5. NE. . . 97.5 84.0 +13.5 12-4

28. WAS. . . 88.8 108.3 -19.5 4-12

29. TB. . . 75.2 97.2 -22.0 2-14

30. OAK. . . 74.4 96.9 -22.0 3-13

31. NYJ. . . 75.1 101.5 -26.4 4-12

32. JAX. . . 72.0 99.1 -27.1 3-13

* Just 10 of the Eagles' 43 touchdown drives this season were four plays or fewer. Last year, 22 of 51 TD drives were four plays or fewer.

* Just 16 of the Eagles' 204 offensive possessions this season were longer than 4 minutes. Only six of those 16 were longer than 5 minutes. They averaged a league-low 2:07 per possession.

* LeSean McCoy averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in the fourth quarter this season. Last season, he averaged 5.9.

* McCoy averaged 4.8 yards per carry in "11" personnel groupings (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) and just 3.3 in "12" (1RB, 2TE, 2WR). Last season, he averaged 5.4 in "11" and 4.4 in "12."

This and that

* Chip Kelly has found a replacement for departed quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave, hiring 35-year-old Boston College offensive coordinator Ryan Day. In the short term at least, Day's hiring could be more important than that of Kelly's top scout, since getting better quarterback play will be a key to the Eagles' offensive success next season. Musgrave left last week to become the Raiders' offensive coordinator. While Kelly has been publicly complimentary of Musgrave, two league sources told me Kelly wasn't all that keen on bringing him back after the uneven play by quarterbacks Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez this season. Foles and Sanchez had 27 of the Eagles' league-high 36 turnovers, including an NFL-high 21 interceptions. The Eagles had the seventh-worst passer rating in the league (84.8) behind Jacksonville (72.0), the Jets (75.1), Tampa Bay (75.2), Minnesota (79.2), Tennessee (81.0) and Arizona (81.8). Musgrave has spent 16 of the last 18 years as an NFL offensive coordinator and/or quarterbacks coach with eight teams. While he hasn't had the opportunity to work with many good teams or great quarterbacks, the bottom line is his QBs have just a plus-101 touchdowns-to-interceptions differential over those 16 seasons. Just four of those 16 teams threw more than 25 touchdown passes in a season, including the '14 Eagles (27).

* One of the more curious aspects of Howie Roseman's demotion/reassignment earlier this month was the news that, while he no longer would have any authority in personnel decisions, he would be in charge of the team's medical and equipment staffs. Many people around the league that I've spoken with found it surprising that Chip Kelly would ever agree to that. "In all the years I've worked in the league, the medical and equipment staffs always have reported to the head coach," a league executive said. "Those are the guys who touch the players, for crying out loud. They get the rumblings of the locker room. They get the pulse of this, the pulse of that. I would never put a nonfootball guy, especially a nonfootball guy I don't trust, in charge of medical and equipment. That doesn't make any sense." It will be interesting to see how much actual involvement Roseman has in contract negotiations, because that's clearly an area where he could sabotage Kelly if he was inclined to do so. Said an AFC front-office executive: "I've had the experience where the cap guy comes down to you and says, 'I couldn't get the deal done.'"

* A total of 30 players turned down invitations to the Senior Bowl, including Brett Hundley and Marcus Mariota. That's the largest number ever. Many of the top players are being advised by their agents to pass on the game and focus on their training for the scouting combine and their Pro Day workouts. "Because of the combine, because of the injury risk, I think these all-star games are running their course," an NFC general manager said. "Their agents are telling them that there's no reason to come. That they can't really improve their draft status. It's still viable for us. It's good to see the [round] three through seven guys separate themselves in a competitive setting. But as far as fan attraction and selling tickets and TV, not really."