Rich Hofmann: Lidge's elbow might be sore point for Phillies

(Editor's note: The following column is approximately 800 words of uninformed speculation being perpetrated by somebody playing doctor without a license, somebody who hasn't seen the patient in the last 6 months, except very briefly on television. And the guy gets paid for this.)

PAY NO ATTENTION to that man behind the curtain, the one holding the cortisone syringe that he just emptied into Brad Lidge's right elbow. It means nothing. The schedule remains the same.

Well, OK.

They say there is nothing wrong with the interior of the elbow, which was surgically buffed and polished during the offseason. They say it is routine exterior soreness, and that it happens every spring, and that this will just accelerate the recovery, and that they're still hoping he'll be ready sometime in the middle of April, and et cetera.

And, well, time will tell - which is a good thing, because history suggests that Lidge never will.

Last year, the Phillies' struggling closer said he was fine - fine, fine, fine, fine, fine. Yeah, there was some knee inflammation but it wasn't a big deal and it wasn't why he was scuffling. In the June 5, 2009, editions of the Daily News, Lidge was quoted extensively on the topic in a story beneath this headline: "Phillies closer Lidge says balky knee not a problem."

That was in the Friday paper. Lidge was on the disabled list the following Tuesday.

He had his rest, did the cortisone thing and came back. For the remainder of the summer, there would be only flashes of what Lidge had been - not the perfection of the 2008 season because nobody expected that, but just looking like himself again. There were only flashes, surrounded by such abject darkness.

Again, he was asked if the knee was a problem. Again and again and again, he said it was not. In the first week of September, he was quoted as saying, "My knee isn't hurting anymore" and that everything mechanically was shipshape. In the last week of September, he said pretty much the same thing. It wasn't the knee, was not, and because of that there were no longer mechanical issues with his delivery.

Well, the elbow surgery was Nov. 11 and the knee surgery was Jan. 13. Both were described as minor.

Move along, then.

Nothing to see here.

Now, there is another cortisone shot following several spring-training appearances in which Lidge was relatively ineffective and in which he displayed an alarmingly unfast fastball. And maybe it will all be fine. It's just that the needle seems to be moving a little bit, the needle on the gauge between "hope" and "expectation." It is moving away from "expectation," just a touch.

When you look back at last year, it really is amazing that the Phillies were able to win another pennant without an effective closer. It defied all baseball logic in the first decade of the 21st century. The idea that they might be able to patch and fill and pull it off again - even with the addition of Roy Halladay to the starting rotation - would seem a stretch. The law of averages really is unforgiving.

Last year, while not a runaway, was such a comfortable season. The Phils were in first place on May 30 and never left first place for the rest of the summer. From the second week of July until the end, the lead fell below four games for exactly 1 day. As a result, Lidge's continuing struggles were always couched in terms of, "How are they going to win a playoff series without a reliable closer?" It was always about the future. It was a cozy couch, all things considered.

There really was never a nine-alarm concern that they might not get to the playoffs. Yes, the closer was a big issue - we all remember well - but through August and September, Lidge was given opportunity after opportunity to work through his problems as the worries really just smoldered.

It is hard to believe that 2010 is going to play out like 2009. Because, yes, Halladay and a seemingly reinvigorated Cole Hamels provide the Phillies with a formidable foundation - but what of the bullpen? Start with the early physical issues of Lidge and J.C. Romero. Add Ryan Madson's historic issues as a fill-in closer. Add Jose Contreras' lousy spring, and Antonio Bastardo's inexperience, and the lack of defined roles right now for so much of the bullpen. It is a fairly long list of bullpen issues. Now, add the cortisone injection.

At the same time, the Braves look to be better, and the Mets have to be healthier, and the Nationals might not just be quite the doormats that they were. The Phillies' starting pitching looks great and the everyday lineup has proved its considerable worth, but because of the bullpen, this season doesn't look like it's going to be a runaway, not from here.

If it isn't, patience with the closer will be a lot harder to muster. With that, Lidge will throw again tomorrow.

Send e-mail to

hofmanr@phillynews.com,

or read his blog, The Idle Rich, at

http://go.philly.com/theidlerich.

For recent columns go to

http://go.philly.com/hofmann.