Phillies' options with Howard limited

THERE IS a glaring flaw in the logic that the Phillies must "get younger." The four most productive hitters in the lineup in 2014 were also the four oldest.

Marlon Byrd, who turned 37 on Aug. 30, led the team in OPS (.757), OPS+ (110), home runs (25) and slugging percentage (.445). Chase Utley, who turns 36 on Dec. 17, finished second in OPS, OPS+, on-base and slugging percentage (.746, 109, .339 and .407). Carlos Ruiz, who turns 36 on Jan. 22, finished third in OPS and OPS+ (.717 and 102) and first in on-base percentage (.347). And Jimmy Rollins, who turns 36 on Nov. 27, tied for third in OPS (.717) and was fourth in OPS+ (101) and third in home runs (17).

Of the four qualifying regulars who finished the season as below-league-average hitters, three were 27 and under.

All of this could lead one to suspect that when a member of the Phillies organization suggests that the team needs to "get younger," as general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. did in an interview with the team's website last week, it is really code words for "replace Ryan Howard with Darin Ruf at first base."

Sure, the Phillies will try like hell to recoup some of the value they sunk into the disastrously ill-advised contract extension they handed their first baseman in April 2010, 2 years before his existing deal was set to expire. But no general manager in the majors will give up anything more than a career minor leaguer in a trade for him, and any salary that said GM assumes will be so negligible that it will have little to no effect on the Phillies' disposable income over the next 3 years.

This offseason, teams in need of first base/DH types will have plenty of options at all levels of the market, with Adam LaRoche and Victor Martinez at the top, Michael Cuddyer and Mike Morse in the middle, and Kendrys Morales, Kelly Johnson and Mark Reynolds at the bottom. Only Morales and Johnson are coming off worse seasons than Howard's.

Reynolds is the perfect example of why it will take a special kind of sucker to pay anything more than the veteran minimum for Howard over the final two seasons of his contract. Last offseason, the Brewers signed Reynolds to a minor league contract after a 2013 season that was a mirror image of Howard's 2014. His OPS was slightly higher (.699 to .690), as was his home-run ratio (21 in 504 plate appearances to 23 in 648 PAs). And Reynolds also had a better 3-year stretch than the one Howard will carry into this offseason. In other words, a team was able to sign a Ryan Howard-caliber player on last year's market for zero guaranteed dollars. (Reynolds ended up making $2 million after he made the squad.) Assuming the market remains roughly the same, why would a team choose to give the Phillies guaranteed dollars for Ryan Howard himself?

Fact is, for the vast majority of major league teams, Howard would not represent an upgrade at either first base or DH. Only seven teams in the majors failed to produce a .690 OPS out of first base: the Pirates (.689), the Yankees (.687), the Athletics (.684, the Twins (.669), the Brewers (.642), the Rangers (.630), and the Astros (.584). At DH, the Yankees, Royals, A's and Mariners failed to crack .690.

Of all of those teams, only the Rangers and Mariners are potential fits.

The Astros have Jon Singleton and Chris Carter at first base and DH, so forget about them.

The Yankees have Mark Teixeira at first base and Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez all possibly needing at-bats at DH. The Twins have Joe Mauer at first base and 24-year-old Kennys Vargas (.772 OPS, nine home runs, 234 PAs in 2014) at DH. The A's have Stephen Vogt at first base and John Jaso as a lefthanded DH. The Pirates paid Ike Davis $3.5 million for a .235/.343/.378 line and 10 home runs in 397 plate appearances at first base. He is under club control for the next two seasons; he shouldn't make more than $5 million next season.

The Rangers will get Prince Fielder back from surgery next season at first base, but they are a possibility. They paid Mitch Moreland $2.65 million in 2014 in his first year of arbitration after a 2013 in which he hit .232/.299/.437 with 23 home runs in 518 plate appearances. Moreland missed most of the year after undergoing ankle reconstruction surgery. If a GM was forced to choose between Moreland at $3 million or Howard at $2 million, the latter choice would make some sense. Problem is, a GM won't be forced to make that choice, because there will be the option of bounce-back candidates like Morales and Johnson.

Given all of those options, the only compelling reason for a team to assume any of the $60 million remaining on Howard's contract is the chance that, at 35, he might be able to produce a full season similar to the half of one he produced in 2013, when he hit .266/.319/.465 with 11 home runs in 317 plate appearances. And when you consider that Morales produced just such a season before signing a 1-year, $7.41 million deal with the Twins, you'd have to think that $7.41 million is the absolute maximum that a team would eat of the $60 million owed Howard. A more realistic estimate would be $2 million of the $25 million owed him in 2015, $1 million of the $25 million owed him in 2016, and none of the $10 million buyout of his 2017 option. And that's before we even consider the fact that Howard can block a trade to two-thirds of major league teams.

In other words, the only major difference between trading Howard and releasing him outright is likely to be semantic.