Murphy: When will Phillies' rebuild be complete?

THERE'S ALWAYS a question about a timeline whenever talk of the Phillies goes macro. It's natural, and it's why so many people hate rebuilding projects like the one the organization is undergoing. But it also betrays a miscomprehension of the reality of the situation: not just the current one, but the one that existed before.

Because there is no answer, and there never will be one. At least, not before the end of the timeline arrives.

Exhibit A was standing in a corner of the Phillies clubhouse on Wednesday afternoon, talking to a small group of reporters about a career that has never quite stuck to the plan. Michael Saunders is 30 years old now, a veteran stopgap in a room full of players whose primes have yet to arrive. Some of them filtered through the room as he spoke: J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, the prospects whose presence prompt the impatient questions about when it will be time.

Take it from Saunders, though. These guys aren't casseroles, and there's a chance dinner will never be served. In 2009 and 2010, he was one of them, an outfielder with the Mariners with size and patience and power who was counted among the top 75 prospects in the game by both Baseball America and BaseballProspectus.com. He was the kind of prospect that headlines trades. In fact, back in December of 2009, he thought he was en route to the Phillies as a critical component of the package they were set to acquire in their disastrous trade of Cliff Lee.

But Saunders transition from Triple A to the majors was anything but seamless. In his first three years of action, he hit just .196 with a .263 OBP and .306 slugging percentage while striking out 180 times in 572 at bats and hitting just 12 home runs.

In other words, once Saunders broke into the major leagues, it was three more years before he became a player who could actually help a playoff team win. That was 2012, when he was 25.

Crawford will be 22 years old this season, Williams 23, Alfaro 24.

"I had success in the minor leagues but I got to the point where I was considering Japan," Saunders said. "Was I ever going to make it in the big leagues?

"I think," he added, "it's easier to get here than it is to stay here."

That's a sentiment toward which everyone in this city would be wise to acclimate themselves. Domonic Brown was by no means the exception; the rule is that some of these guys will fail, and even the ones who don't might take a while to figure it out.

Remember all those prospects the Phillies traded away to the teams who proved to be the ghosts of their future? Jonathan Singleton spent all of last season scuffling at Triple A after striking out in nearly half of his 357 major league at-bats. Michael Taylor appeared in a total of 37 major league games. Anthony Gose hit .209 in 101 plate appearances for the Tigers last season. In his career, he has a .656 OPS and has logged more than 274 plate appearances in a season once. At the age of 28, Travis D'Arnaud has reached 300 plate appearances once and has a career .704 OPS.

Each one of those players was at one point regarded as a prospect equivalent to Alfaro, Williams or Crawford. Ironically, the three players from that era who might pay the most dividends were three of the most lightly regarded. Last year, 23-year-old Domingo Santana posted a .792 OPS and hit 11 home runs in a career-high 281 plate appearances in his third big-league season. Jonathan Villar hit just .236/.300/.353 while averaging 219 plate appearances apiece in his first three seasons before finally exploding in 2016 for 19 home runs, a .285/.369/.457 line and 62 steals as a 25-year-old. Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco had seen action in four major league seasons before he became a pitcher who would've helped a playoff team. When healthy, he's been electric. But that started at the age of 26.

Think about that. All of those players - and some we haven't even mentioned - were prospects like the ones this fanbase currently awaits, and the only ones still standing are, absolute best-case scenario, a potential Jimmy Rollins and a potential Pat Burrell, along with whatever you'd consider Carrasco.

On Monday, club president Andy MacPhail used the word "attrition" when talking about the process that still awaits the cast of prospects the Phillies have assembled. On Wednesday, general manager Matt Klentak sounded a similar theme.

"One of the things we've worked hard to - and this predates me - we worked hard to acquire as many talented young players as we can," Klentak said. "The reason we acquire as many players as we do is because we know the inevitable is going to happen. Somebody's going to get hurt, someone's not going to perform as well as you thought, but there's also going to be a player who turns out to be a full-grade better than you thought. Hopefully there will be multiple players like that. It's not an exact science. We know that. Our position is to have as many of them as we can and take our chances in volume."

But the winnowing has barely even begun. If 100 percent of them do in their first year what Villar did in his fourth, the timeline could be 2018 (if not sooner). But the odds say there's a better chance of them all doing the opposite of that. There's a scenario in which they all become All-Stars by the age of 28 and the Phillies aren't a playoff team until 2020. Go look at how long it took the Royals' young guys to get it together even after they reached the major leagues.

Trust me, Klentak said Wednesday, he understands the impatience.

"Sometimes the baseball season will test my patience, too," he said, "as it probably will for everyone in this room, as it will for the managers and the players and the fans. I get that."

But he still can't give you the answer you most want to know. Nobody can.

dmurphy@phillynews.com

@ByDavidMurphy