How Doug Mastriano got pranked; where the latest polls rank the governor’s race | Clout

Clout understands why State Sen. Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor in Pennsylvania, touted on social media the results of a new “poll” that for the first time showed him with a narrow lead over the Democratic nominee, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

What we don’t get: Why did Mastriano and campaign adviser Jenna Ellis leave up those social media posts for five days — as it soon became clear it was a hoax and the “pollster” had pranked him?

Curious call for a cantankerous candidate who dismisses as “fake news” any media reporting that does not exalt him.

The “pollster” — who would only identify himself as “a high school student from southwestern Connecticut who likes politics” — told Clout in a Twitter message exchange that he created the Twitter account Carleton Polling this month to test a theory about a “double standard” for polling and political parties.

His hypothesis: Republicans attack the credibility of established polling firms that release surveys with results they don’t like but take seriously and push polls even if they “don’t seem legitimate.”

Mastriano was his first test.

He posted it on Twitter on Saturday afternoon with an all-caps siren headline — New #PAGOV POLL SHOWS MASTRIANO LEAD.” It claimed Mastriano led Shapiro 47.4% to 45.3% in a survey of 2,800 likely voters.

Mastriano, whose Twitter account was tagged in that tweet, quickly retweeted it and retweeted supporters who also retweeted it.

“The Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania literally retweeted a joke poll from some high schooler without questioning anything,” the student said in a follow-up email to Clout. “I’ll admit, I expected some random Twitter accounts to share it, but not Doug Mastriano himself.”

Mastriano also retweeted a Carleton Polling post Sunday that said: “It has become abundantly clear” that he “is going to win the Pennsylvania governor’s race. All the data we are analyzing right now shows him ahead.”

Ellis, a senior legal adviser to Mastriano’s campaign and onetime lawyer for former President Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign, also retweeted the poll Saturday. And then she retweeted a Carleton Polling post Sunday that said: “It’s ironic how everybody on Twitter is mad at us because we’re the only ones not putting out fake Democratic propaganda polls.”

Breitbart, a right-wing website, included the Carleton Polling tweet in a story Monday about Mastriano’s chances but then cut it, posting an editor’s note that the story would “focus only on established pollsters.”

Carleton Polling responded with a tweet, accusing Breitbart of selling out “to the liberal media.”

More discerning Twitter users started to poke holes in the results. Philly lawyer Adam Bonin, who works for the Shapiro campaign but did the math to satisfy his own curiosity, employed algebra to show what little information Carleton Polling had released produced unfeasible results.

The Carleton account turned to trolling, with a tweet Tuesday about a New York congressional special election that said: “Top-of-mind issues for voter: Local plumbing problems, construction of a life-sized statue of Rudy Giuliani, and leaked texts revealing Pat Ryan’s obsession with bacon grease.”

Ryan, a Democrat, won Tuesday in a New York race seen as a toss-up and now regarded as a hopeful sign for his party in November’s midterm elections.

The Carleton account, gaining attention and critics, on Tuesday added “parody” to a description that still claimed to be “the gold standard of American polling.” The high schooler said he didn’t want Mastriano to use his “joke poll” to claim some sort of election fraud.

“It’s my belief that most people knew it was all a joke,” he added.

Mastriano’s campaign, of course, did not respond when asked about that.

Shapiro spokesperson Will Simon, citing Mastriano’s embrace of Carleton Polling, said Mastriano “regularly makes up fake statistics and peddles baseless lies, so it’s not surprising he would elevate an obviously fake poll.”

Mastriano, who grants interviews only to fawning conservative shows, told Newsmax on Monday that he won a crowded primary in May while Shapiro was the only Democrat in the field. He suggested polling in the race could have shown Shapiro up by “double digits” thanks to that.

“I’m in the midst of rebuilding my war chest,” Mastriano said. “Josh Shapiro has spent $12 million bashing me and it’s still a statistical dead heat.”

Both candidates are using polls to cast the race as too close to call in fund-raising pitches, upping the tension in hopes of coaxing the dollars. And, really, the polls are all over the place in the race.

» READ MORE: Fetterman and Shapiro’s leads might be narrowing in Pa.’s midterm races

A Franklin & Marshall College Poll released Thursday showed Shapiro leading Mastriano 44% to 33% among the 522 voters surveyed, with a margin of error of 5.3%.

But an Emerson College Poll of 1,034 likely voters also released Thursday, with a margin of error of 3%, showed Shapiro up just 3 points, 47% to 44%.

And a Trafalgar Group Poll released earlier this week had Shapiro up by nearly 4 points, 48.6% to 44.7%, in a survey 1,096 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.9%

An average of polls compiled by the website FiveThirtyEight gives Shapiro a 7.3% edge in the race.

An average of polls compiled by the website RealClearPolitics shows Shapiro with a 5.9% lead.

The general election is still 2½ months away.

Clout provides often irreverent news and analysis about people, power, and politics.