7 governor races to watch during the midterm elections

Voters will weigh in on governor races across the country Tuesday, and those races can determine the future of a state’s political landscape.

Governors have significant influence on public policy. And some of this year’s elections are in central battleground states, including ones where voters are also choosing a senator. And how those votes split between the two could determine what party will control the Senate along with whether ticket splitting — the dying practice of selecting candidates from different political parties for different races — could make a resurgence. The practice of ticket splitting has been fading in recent years.

In Pennsylvania, the gubernatorial race results will determine the future of high-profile topics including abortion access and voter access. Republican State Sen. Doug Mastriano and state Attorney General Josh Shapiro are seeking to succeed the term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who had used his veto power to block GOP efforts.

» READ MORE: What to know about 2022 candidates for Pa. governor

Here are seven key gubernatorial races to watch.

This tight race features Arizona’s secretary of state, Democrat Katie Hobbs, vs. Republican Kari Lake. Lake has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and is billed by critics as an extremely far-right candidate. Hobbs’ campaign has been described by NPR as straightforward and “scripted.” The Republican camp has criticized her for not participating in a debate against Lake.

Florida incumbent Republican Ron DeSantis is running against a former Florida governor, U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist. Crist is running as a moderate Democrat — he started his career as a Republican before declaring himself Independent and later, in 2012, a Democrat. DeSantis narrowly won his first election against Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum but has since garnered loyal supporters. A reelection could position him for his anticipated 2024 presidential run.

Incumbent Brian Kemp is running against Democrat Stacey Abrams, marking a rematch of the 2018 gubernatorial race. The first time around, Abrams lost to Kemp by half a percentage point. The two have starkly different approaches to abortion rights, voter access, and social justice. Since their original race, Abrams has focused on voting rights and access.

Democratic incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will face Republican Tudor Dixon. Dixon, who has been endorsed by Trump, is a conservative TV commentator and first-time candidate. It’s unclear if her approach will resonate with moderate, suburban Detroit voters who could decide the election. Whitmer’s campaign spending on advertising has outweighed Dixon’s to the point where Republican donors “shifted their focus to other races they view as more winnable,” according to CNN. Whitmer is viewed as the favorite.

If Gov. Kathy Hochul loses to Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, it would upset two decades of Democratic representation in the governor’s mansion. Over the last month, Hochul’s lead has diminished from double to single digits as Zeldin has pressed issues including crime and inflation, according to The Hill. Zeldin is another Republican who has touted a close friendship with Trump and defended the former president against accusations of racism. He also voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.

In Texas, Greg Abbott is running for his third term as governor. He faces former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who has gained supporters for his backing of abortion rights and gun safety measures. In contrast, Abbott’s policies and views on immigration and guns have faced criticism amid the border crisis and mass shootings. This marks O’Rourke’s second statewide campaign. In 2018, he unsuccessfully ran against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

Democratic incumbent Tony Evers’ run against Tim Michels could set the course of the state’s political future. Michels, a construction businessman with a Trump endorsement, promised Republicans the party would never lose a state election again if he was elected, causing concern about election integrity. His campaign later said Michels meant that he’d boost support for Republicans, not something more sinister. As governor, Evers’ agenda focused on negating a Republican-controlled legislature, vetoing nearly 150 bills during his term, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.