It may look like Trump is winning Pa. before votes start to shift toward Biden. Whoever wins, that’s not fraud.
In the hours and days after polls close, the margins between Trump and Biden will change considerably. It’s called the “blue shift,” and it’s not fraud. It's just mail ballots being counted.
Voters line up on Election Day outside Franklin D. Roosevelt Middle School in Bristol, Pa.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
As Pennsylvania’s votes are counted Tuesday and in the days to follow, the margins between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden will shift. That just means more votes are being counted.
But what you might notice in particular is that the results Tuesday night will likely favor Trump. And then, over hours and days, the results that keep coming will likely push things more and more toward Biden.
It’s called the “blue shift,” and it’s preceded by what some have taken to calling the “red mirage.” And it’s not fraud, it’s not the election being stolen, it’s just the votes being counted over time.
The blue shift is not a new phenomenon (though it was only first identified a few years ago), and even in Pennsylvania, there have been blue shifts in the past. You probably didn’t even notice it before, but this year it’s likely to be quite obvious.
It might seem strange — and it might lead to false claims of voter fraud and election rigging. So here’s a quick breakdown.
There are three key things to understanding the blue shift this year:
Pennsylvania has way more mail ballots than ever before.
Counting those mail ballots takes a long time.
Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are.
Taken together, these three facts set up a predictable blue shift.
This is the first year any Pennsylvania voter can vote by mail, thanks to a law passed last year that expanded the state’s restrictive absentee-voting system. In previous elections, only about 5% of votes were cast by mail. In the June primary, it was just over half.
The pandemic has been a major driver of that massive surge in demand for mail ballots, and more than three million voters requested mail ballots for the general election. That’s just over one-third of all registered voters in the state. As of Monday night, more than 2.5 million ballots had already been returned — more than 10 times the number of mail ballots used in 2016.
It will take time to count all those votes.
In-person votes are easy: Voting machines tally them and summarize them at the end of the night. Take a USB flash drive (or something similar) from the voting machine, plug it into the computer reading the results, and there you go. Results from a days’ worth of voting, fed into the system in minutes.
Mail ballots? Those take time. You have to check the envelopes. Open them, pull out the inner envelope and ballot, and then open the inner envelope. Pull out the ballot, flatten it, and scan it. Only then can you take the results from the scanner and enter them in the system.
It will be a days-long process to count Pennsylvania’s mail ballots.
So on Tuesday night, we’ll be missing a large portion of the vote.
(Left to Right) Fred Musilli, left, Majority Inspector, Louis DiRenzo, Judge of Elections, Eileen Barone, Clerk, and Erica Ortiz, Machine Inspector, say goodbye to each other after the polls closed at the Barry Recreation Center, at the 6th Division in the 26th Ward, in South Philadelphia, on Election Day.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
A police officer exits the polling place to bring the hopper, the bag filled with ballots that come out of the voting machine as well as provisional ballots, to his vehicle after the polls closed at the Barry Recreation Center, in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Chris D'Agostino, far back left, Judge of Elections, Shirley A. Solomon, front center, Majority Inspector, and George Mink, right, Clerk, put provisional ballots in the hopper at the 5th and 9th division of the 26th Ward after the polls closed at the polling place at Barry Recreation Center, in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Voters wait in line at night at Forest Grove Presbyterian Church on Election Day in Furlong.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
An elderly voter, center exits the polling place at Barry Playground in South Philadelphia after voting.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Robin Stewart hand checks the addresses on ballots at West Chester University, where Chester County's votes are counted.Read moreBob Williams For The inquirer
Poll watchers outside of the Doylestown Township Building.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
Band members of The Lucky Chops from New York and Snack Time from Philadelphia relax after performing for voters outside the polling place at Global Leadership Academy Southwest in West Philadelphia.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Voters at Nether Providence Elementary polling location in Nether Providence Township,, Pa.Read moreCHARLES FOX / Staff Photographer
A large sign in support of President Trump across the street from a polling place located in a garage at Hoffnagle and Jeanes streets.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Nadiyah Jordan, Judge of Elections, stands outside the 11th Ward, 6th Division at N. 18th and Atlantic streets.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
There are no cars waiting at the drive-in ballot drop-off site at the Camden County Board of Elections headquarters in Blackwood, N.J.Read moreTOM GRALISH / Staff Photographer
Voters leave a polling place located in a garage at Hoffnagle and Jeanes streets.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
A voter enters the building in front of a “When Women Lost the Vote” banner promoting the American Museum of the Revolution’s latest exhibit.Read moreHEATHER KHALIFA / Staff Photographer
Philadelphians gather outside the Free Library in East Falls to cast their votes.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
A man who didn’t want to be named but said he was a volunteer “voter protection” observer sits outside Simpson Fletcher United Methodist Church, the Ward 34 Division 12 polling place, in West Philadelphia.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Charlene Cooper with mail-in ballots for her family stopped by Liacouras Center to drop them off Tuesday morning.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
Earlene Bly cheers as a group of canvassers organized by Unite Here rally in Elmwood Park in Southwest Philadelphia on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
A man who did not want to be identified passed out Trump flags and American flags outside of the polling place at the Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #5.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Kristine Longshore, Republican Committee and Bucks County Republican Executive, lays out a candidate's signs outside of the Doylestown Borough Hall on Election Day in Doylestown, Pa. “First time ever seeing lines in all my years working in Doylestown,” Longshore said. “I'm out here to support my people. It’s an important election to come out and vote.”Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
"As I Plant This Seed," a North Philadelphia non-profit that works with youth mentoring, gathered outside the Liacouras Center on Election Day. The group was out promoting the importance of voting.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
Danny Statler walks buy a Trump mural in McConnellsburg, Pa.Read moreSTEVEN M. FALK / Staff Photographer
Christina Finello, candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, is out thanking voters and handing out hand warmers as they wait in line outside of Franklin D. Roosevelt Middle School in Bristol, Pa.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
A floor sign encourages voters to stand six feet apart in the halls of Herbert Hoover Elementary School in Hulmeville, Pa.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
Trump signs posted on a car parked at the Stephen Decatur Elementary School polling place.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Voters gather outside the Free Library, Falls of Schuylkill in East Falls.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
Buttons reading "I LIKE MIKE," in support of Mike Doyle for state representative, at Junod Recreation Center in Philadelphia.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
People wait in line to vote at Delaplaine McDaniel School at 22nd and McClellan streets in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Supporters wave to former Vice President Joe Biden's caravan during an election day visit to his childhood home on Washington Avenue in Scranton, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
Supporters line up during an Election Day visit from Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden in Scranton, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
Noel Moore speaks about her support for President Donald Trump during Election Day in Dunmore, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
Voters line up early morning outside Doylestown Fire Company along Shewell Avenue.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
Kathy Posnett, Republican Committee women (left) and Nancy Adan, Democratic Committee women (right) pose for a portrait outside the Doylestown Fire Company. The two are out helping voters with any questions or concerns throughout the day. “I think it’s important to be involved and help people,” Adan said. “People know the country is dying to vote.”Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
A person removes a sign from the polling place at the Muslim Youth Center of Philadelphia.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Derek Jones photographs sign on front of Liacouras Center on Temple's campus in Philadelphia. This was an early voting site, but now serves as a mail-in ballot drop off site.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
Philadelphians gather along Conrad Street near Queen Street waiting to vote. Their polling place is at the Mifflin School in East Falls.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
People wait in line to vote at Barry Playground at 18th and Bigler streets in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
A man walks past chairs set up for voters waiting in line outside the Light of Elmwood Lodge #45, the Ward 60 Division 9 polling place in West Philadelphia.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Anabel Bernal, 32, and Mahala Garcia-Bartch,16, both volunteers for the Mike Doyle campaign, take a break for bagels at the Stephen Decatur Elementary School polling place. Garcia-Bartch said that this was her first time volunteering on Election Day.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Ross Frey, a Republican Poll watcher, poses for a portrait outside of Franklin D. Roosevelt Middle School in Bristol, Pa. Frey is out with his wife, Theresa Gabriella-Frey. They have been working as poll watchers for about 13 years. “It’s very important,” Ross said. “It’s a choice between socialism and freedom.”Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
The line at 9:30 a.m. outside School of the Future, the Ward 6 Div 15 polling place, in Philadelphia.Read moreTim Tai / Staff photographer
A small plane with banner that reads, "Vote Like Your Life Depends On It, VotesPA.com." The plane was flying over North Philadelphia on Election Day.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
Voters line up in the early morning outside Doylestown Borough Hall along Court Street.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
Sayesh and Purnima Patel speak about voting for former Vice President Joe Biden on Election Day in Dunmore, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
People arrive to vote at Broad and Oregon in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Voters line up outside of Franklin D. Roosevelt Middle School in Bristol, Pa.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
Mike Morano, who works for the 66th Ward leader, stands outside the Stephen Decatur Elementary School on Election Day. Morano said the turnout has been good so far, and the polling place peaceful and quiet.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
People line up and wait outside of the American Museum of the Revolution to vote in Old City.Read moreHEATHER KHALIFA / Staff Photographer
Nick Sparacino speaks about voting for Trump in Old Forge, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
A Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #5 truck was parked at the Stephen Decatur Elementary School polling place on Election Day.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Former Vice President Joe Biden waves from the front steps of his childhood home during an early visit on Election Day in Scranton.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
Homi Malave a rover working with volunteers making sure they have food and not having issues according to Homi. He was decorating a car with pro Biden and Harris signs on the 500 block of Rising Sun Avenue.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
Supporters of Rep. Andy Kim listen as New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy speaks at an event in support of Kim in Willingboro, N.J.Read moreMIGUEL MARTINEZ / For the Inquirer
People line up to vote at the Stephen Decatur Elementary School polling place in Philadelphia.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
Carlos Santiago (center) and Carolina Diazgranados (right) of the Bismuth String Quartet, play music for voters at a polling place at South Philadelphia High School.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Voters cast their votes at the Dunmore Community Center in Dunmore, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Rep. Andy Kim cheer the crowd at an event in support Kim for the third Congressional District of New Jersey in Willingboro. N.J.Read moreMIGUEL MARTINEZ / For the Inquirer
Democratic Committeewoman Judi Ruley (left) helps Ashleigh Bynum get an “I Voted” sticker as she leaves the Light of Elmwood Lodge #45, the Ward 60 Division 9 polling place, in West Philadelphia.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Supporters record and cheer from an island on 5th and Race street, as Joe Biden’s motorcade exits the National Constitution Center during his visit to Philadelphia.Read moreHEATHER KHALIFA / Staff Photographer
Jeff (left) and Beth Womack walk down Spruce Street in West Philadelphia with their repurposed Halloween costume, an AT-AT from Star Wars, as they parade around to several polling places to encourage people to vote.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
People in line to vote in Ayr Township near McConnellsburg in Fulton County.Read moreSTEVEN M. FALK / Staff Photographer
Fulton County Commissioner Randy Bunch talks to reporters after voting at the Ayr Township building near McConnellsburg, Pa.Read moreSTEVEN M. FALK / Staff Photographer
Musicians with the Sun Ra Arkestra (left to right) James Stewart, tenor sax, Vincent Chancey, french horn, Cecil Brooks, trumpet, and Dave Davis, trombone, play outside a polling place on Ellsworth Street between 10th and 11th streets in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Sarah Sophie Flicker, listening to the Sun Ra Arkestra, in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
Christina Fuoco directs voters at a polling place near 10th and Ellsworth streets in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
A large mural reflects on Women's Voter Rights on East Market Street in West Chester.Read moreBob Williams For The inquirer
A poll worker assists a voter at a polling place at Barry Playground in South Philadelphia.Read moreJESSICA GRIFFIN / Staff Photographer
LLona Dollinish speaks about voting for former Vice President Joe Biden in Old Forge, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
Florence Moyer refills the Democratic ballots outside a polling location in Brookhaven, Pa.Read moreCHARLES FOX / Staff Photographer
It is quiet inside the polling place at Timber Creek High School in Erial, N.J.Read moreTOM GRALISH / Staff Photographer
Supporters of Democratic party candidate for President of the United States, Joe Biden wait for him to arrive at intersection of East Pastorius Street and Limekiln Pike.Read moreALEJANDRO A. ALVAREZ / Staff Photographer
A bus drops off field hockey players for a game, but that is the only activity outside the polling place at Timber Creek High School in Erial, N.J.Read moreTOM GRALISH / Staff Photographer
Voters like Ty Carter (right) wait in line outside of Strath Haven High School polling location in Wallingford, Pa.Read moreCHARLES FOX / Staff Photographer
Amen Brown (second from right), candidate for state representative in the 190th District, drops off jerk chicken dinners for poll workers at the Parkside Association polling place in his get-out-the-vote caravan.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Amen Brown (second from left), candidate for state representative in the 190th District, sits in the back of a trailer at 43rd and Market Streets in West Philadelphia during a break in his get-out-the-vote caravan.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
A woman checks in to vote at Comegys Elementary School in Southwest Philadelphia.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Ashwin Ananth, 33, stops to take a selfie with a cutout of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris outside of the Kimmel Center in Philadelphia. The cutouts were made by Glen Goldstein, 61, of the Catskill Mountain region in NY.Read moreHEATHER KHALIFA / Staff Photographer
Wendy Billig and her Woodle, Charlie (and husband Steven) leave after dropping off their mail-in ballets at the polling place inside Cherry Hill High School East.Read moreTOM GRALISH / Staff Photographer
A poll watcher uses binoculars as ballots are counted inside the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia.Read moreHEATHER KHALIFA / Staff Photographer
Election workers wait at a quiet polling place inside Cherry Hill High School East.Read moreTOM GRALISH / Staff Photographer
City Councilmember Helen Gym speaks to a group of canvassers organized by Unite Here in Elmwood Park in Southwest Philadelphia.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Richard Harris, 76, of Furlong, Pa., poses for a portrait while waiting in line to vote at Forest Grove Presbyterian Church on Election Day in Furlong, Pa. “We were here this morning and it was jammed pack,” Harris said. “As long as we get trump out of there. We are trying to do our part and straighten things out in this country.”Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
Chris Kearney collects political signs from the lawn at the end election day at the Dunmore Community Center in Dunmore, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
Poll workers close the doors at the end of election day at the Dunmore Community Center in Dunmore, Pa.Read moreJOSE F. MORENO / Staff Photographer
The sunsets on Election Day in North Philadelphia.Read moreMONICA HERNDON / Staff Photographer
About 100 Trump supporters gathered at the intersection of Knowlton Road and Rt. 452 in Aston, Pa.Read moreCHARLES FOX / Staff Photographer
Luwam Amlak, a nurse, arrives at 7:59 p.m. to vote at Comegys Elementary School in Southwest Philadelphia. She worked a 12-hour shift starting at 7 a.m., and drove to the polling place right after work to be able to vote in time.Read moreTIM TAI / Staff Photographer
Poll watchers clean up and gather their things as the polls come to a close at the Central Bucks Community Senior Center in Doylestown, Pa.Read moreTYGER WILLIAMS / Staff Photographer
And those votes will be disproportionately for Biden, since Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are.
So as the mail ballots are counted after Election Day, the blue shift we see is really just about how people vote and the order in which those votes are counted. If Democrats and Republicans voted by mail and in person at equal rates, this wouldn’t happen.
It just means the in-person votes are counted faster, and those happen to skew toward Trump.
