What’s a caucus? Iowa kicks off Republicans’ presidential contest

It’s go-time. The GOP primary field has been whittled to four serious contenders. And while former President Donald Trump has dominated early polling, rendering the typically action-packed primary season into more of an afterthought, it’s finally time to see what happens when actual preferences are registered.

Does Trump dominate the first state contest or do we see some momentum elsewhere?

While both parties hold caucuses in Iowa on Monday, only the GOP caucus has any real bearing on determining the party nominee this year. And even with the Republican contest, it’s the timing of the caucus — coming first — that makes it significant.

Iowa will determine how many of the state’s 40 convention delegates each candidate receives but the state makes up a tiny share of the total number of Republican delegates nationwide. So a candidate who loses Iowa can go on to win the nomination. But Iowa tends to set the tone and signal which candidates have early momentum.

The key word in Iowa is expectation. Did a candidate meet, exceed or fall short of what their campaign had aimed to do?

Another word this weekend will be snow. A Midwest blizzard threatens to impact the final stretch of campaigning over the weekend and extreme cold, between -2 and -17 degrees, is forecast for Monday’s caucuses.

Here’s a reminder of how the caucuses work and their relevance to the 2024 election.

In Iowa, the caucuses are very generally a series of local meetings held around the state where voters pick a preferred presidential nominee. They differ slightly from primaries in how they’re run but serve a similar purpose. It’s also the first step in selecting people to serve as delegates to the national party conventions this summer. Iowa’s Republican Party has caucuses in each of the 61 counties in the state.

In the case of Trump, the expectations are sky high. He’s led in all polling in the state by large numbers. And while he’s done less campaigning here than his opponents, he did a series of campaign rallies in the lead-up to try and promote turnout.

In recent days, Trump’s campaign has noted that no candidate has ever won Iowa by more than 12 points (though he leads in most polls by closer to 20 points). That could be a way of managing expectations. A Trump win that is less definitive could feel like a Trump loss headed into the other states. Alternatively, a blowout in the first contest and all the attention it receives, gives him momentum heading into other states.

Haley, the former South Carolina governor, Haley has been running ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in New Hampshire but behind him in Iowa. If she were to eke out second place in Iowa it would be a huge win for her campaign, which was already dealt some luck this week when former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the race. The two former governors appeal to a similar constituency of moderate Republican voters.

A third-place finish wouldn’t be bad for Haley either but staying close with DeSantis is key. We’ll be looking to see how Haley does overall and what her appeal is like in some more swing or suburban parts of Iowa that might mirror the Philadelphia region’s more moderate Republican enclaves.

The Florida governor’scampaign has poured resources into Iowa and proclaimed he’ll win it. How he does will be a key test of whether his candidacy continues to slide or gets some life. A strong second-place finish, coming close to, or overtaking Trump would be big for DeSantis.

Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has said he appeals to caucus voters who don’t typically come out and thus haven’t been properly polled. Monday will be a test of that theory for the more fringe candidate.

Not a ton. Iowa is a solidly red state in presidential elections, whereas Pennsylvania is a swing state. But parts of Iowa reflect Pennsylvania and vice versa. Northwest Iowa and central and southwest Pennsylvania are areas where Trump put up big margins in 2020. How he performs in those places will be an early sign of whether his loyalists are engaged and still with him. Similarly, some of Iowa’s divided suburbs reflect parts of Pennsylvania where moderate Republicans have voiced an interest in an alternative to Trump.

Seeing who comes out on top, and by what margins, in those places, could signal something whether Trump can appeal in swing parts of Pennsylvania.

One of the main differences between caucuses and primaries is the amount of time allotted for voting to occur and the methods by which people can vote. In a primary, people can show up at the polls and cast ballots throughout Election Day, from early morning until polls close in the evening. They have the option of casting an absentee ballot if they can’t make it to the polls, and in some states, people may vote before Election Day. The Iowa caucuses, on the other hand, are held in the evening and voters must attend in person in order to participate, except in a few isolated instances. Caucuses are run by political parties, whereas primaries are usually (but not always) run by the state.

Both the state Republican and Democratic parties will hold caucuses on Jan. 15, but only the Republican event will have an immediate, binding impact on the presidential race. In a departure from previous years, the Democratic caucuses will be held only to conduct administrative party business and to start the process of choosing delegates to the national conventions. Iowa Democrats will express their preferences for their party’s presidential nominee through a mail voting process, the results of which will not be known until March.

The Associated Press contributed to this article.