Facing an uphill battle against Gov. Josh Shapiro’s $30 million war chest, Stacy Garrity still has to convince top Republicans she’s worth investing in

HARRISBURG — In the race for Pennsylvania governor, State Treasurer Stacy Garrity still has a lot of work to do.

With a little more than nine months until Election Day, the state Republican Party-endorsed candidate must convince top GOP donors that her campaign is worth investing in, making the case that she can motivate voters — and beat popular incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro.

And so far, she has significant ground to make up against the Democratic machine Shapiro now effectively controls, as he continues to build his name recognition nationwide.

» READ MORE: Stacy Garrity gets state GOP endorsement for governor: ‘Help is on the way’

Garrity announced earlier this month that from August through December, her campaign raised nearly $1.5 million — almost as much as the 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano, raised in the entirety of his campaign. But the amount is only a fraction of the $30 million war chest Shapiro has built up over the last few years.

Republican insiders for months have said privately they see the race against Shapiro, a Democratic governor with consistently high approval ratings and a rising national star, as one they have slim chances at winning in November.

» READ MORE: Josh Shapiro’s reelection campaign in Pennsylvania starts now — but 2028 looms large

Still, they’re hoping that Garrity, a retired U.S. Army colonel who in 2024 broke the record for receiving the most votes in a state-level race — a record previously held by Shapiro — will be able to deliver a high enough level of excitement among Republican voters in Pennsylvania to drive them to the polls, where down-ballot races for control of the U.S. House and state Senate are also on the line.

Some GOP insiders have pointed to Garrity’s limited early fundraising haul as make-or-break for the state’s whole Republican ticket — and the political future of Pennsylvania.

“This is the Democrats’ first real opportunity to gain a trifecta in Pennsylvania that could lock up Pennsylvania from being a ‘purple’ state to a solid blue state every election here onward,” said Matt Brouillette, who leads Commonwealth Partners and its political action committees, which often contribute to Republican candidates and are largely funded by Pennsylvania’s richest man, Jeffrey Yass.

Brouillette leads the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a powerful PAC that sat out the 2022 gubernatorial race that the PAC saw Mastriano as unable to win. Brouillette said the fund still has yet to decide whether it will invest in Garrity’s campaign.

There isn’t a specific number Brouillette said he wants to see her raise before he chooses to get involved in the governor’s race, but he is overall “encouraged to see Stacy solidifying support for her candidacy.”

“Stacy is going to have to attract national investment the way Josh has,” Brouillette said. “Our donors won’t be sufficient. Stacy is going to have to be competitive nationally to make this a race.”

As 2028 inches closer, Shapiro’s national reach continues to grow — and with that, he has been able to flex his fundraising skills across the country. He will publish his first book on Tuesday, a memoir called Where We Keep the Light, in what is largely seen as a telltale sign that a candidate is considering a presidential run. He has promised to use his influence in Pennsylvania to support Democrats down the ballot, including in four congressional districts the party hopes to flip in the midterms — and deliver Democrats a majority in the U.S. House.

» READ MORE: Josh Shapiro’s new book: Why Trump told him he shouldn’t be president, disagreements over COVID-19 closures, and more

Campaign finance filings detailing who contributed to both Shapiro and Garrity’s campaigns won’t be available until next week. Shapiro broke fundraising records in the 2022 race, and is on track to do the same again this year.

What’s more: Garrity is also contending with strong headwinds favoring Democrats in November, as support for President Donald Trump wanes.

Still, Garrity has been rolling out a number of endorsements from top Pennsylvania Republicans, including on Friday from U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R., Pa.), who is running for reelection in one of the districts Democrats hope to flip. But she has yet to receive Trump’s support or endorsement, and was not mentioned by Trump when she attended his most recent Pennsylvania rally.

The hesitancy appears to have extended to the lieutenant governor’s contest. Garrity still has yet to announce who she would like to be her running mate. Only a few candidates have announced their candidacy for lieutenant governor so far, and the state GOP is expected to endorse Garrity’s pick at its February meeting.

» READ MORE: Stacy Garrity says she’s ‘talking to a lot of people’ about being her running mate. Only two have stepped up.

A spokesperson for Garrity’s campaign said she is “humbled by the outpouring of support she’s received from supporters all across the commonwealth, including from members of the Commonwealth Partners’ leadership,” who share her vision for the state and frustrations with Shapiro.

“No moment crystalized this support more than when the PAGOP took the unusual step of endorsing Treasurer Garrity’s campaign so early, which served as the catalyst for the momentum she’s building to defeat Josh Shapiro this November,” said Garrity’s spokesperson, Matt Benyon, in a statement.

A spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Republican Party declined to comment.

Garrity will host a kickoff fundraiser in Philadelphia on Wednesday, said Bob Asher, Garrity’s finance chair.

As for her fundraising numbers since December, Asher said, with a smile: “Stay tuned.”

In announcing her first haul, Garrity’s campaign said 97% of her contributions came from Pennsylvania residents, and 75% of the contributions were under $100. Shapiro, for his part, boasted that the $30 million in his campaign coffers came from all of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, as well as financial support from all 50 states.

A large number of small-dollar campaign contributions can suggest grassroots support — translating to an energized voter base on Election Day — for a candidate that big-dollar or corporate political action committee funds can’t capture. But the bigger the war chest, the more a candidate can spend to get their name on the airwaves.

Other GOP insiders are pointing their fingers at the state Republican Party, using Garrity’s early fundraising numbers as proof they are not doing enough to back her up in the race against Shapiro and that they’re setting themselves up for failure in November.

For Jim Worthington, the owner of the Newtown Athletic Club and a Bucks County GOP power player, Garrity’s early struggles are a result of failings by the state GOP to plan ahead and invest in mail voting.

“It’s an indictment of the party,” Worthington said. “I understand why some people are hesitant to give money. They’re looking at the tea leaves and saying, ‘Look, we lost the year.’”

“It’s going to be difficult for Stacy, and I feel bad because she is a hell of a candidate,” he added.

Worthington said anytime he talks to national Republicans in Washington or Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, where he’s a member, he mentions Garrity’s race as one in which they should invest.

At the very least, he argues, top Republicans should help Garrity in an effort to ensure Shapiro doesn’t “have a cakewalk right into 2028,” as speculation continues to surround Shapiro about his political aspirations. Worthington said he even brought this up directly to Vice President JD Vance, the GOP’s expected 2028 successor to Trump, at Vance’s holiday party.

As for Garrity, Worthington said he believes she can win, calling her “an excellent candidate” with a hard work ethic.

“Make no mistake, it’s gonna be a tough go,” Worthington added. “But I’m 100% sure she can win.”