Can one of these Democrats flip a red state Senate district in Upper Bucks and Lehigh?

As Democrats hope to usher in a trifecta in Harrisburg for Gov. Josh Shapiro this fall, two Democrats are battling for the chance to flip a red state Senate district on the edge of the Philly area.

Bradley Merkl-Gump, a teacher and Pennridge School Board member, and Mark Pinsley, the Lehigh County controller, are running in a competitive primary to face GOP State Sen. Jarrett Coleman in the 16th District, which Democrats view as obtainable this fall.

Republicans currently hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate.

In the final weeks of their primary campaigns, the two Democrats are making their pitches to voters to see who could ride a possible blue wave in November as Democrats bank on the combo of Shapiro’s popularity and backlash to President Donald Trump pushing them to victory across the state.

The state Senate district, which covers parts of Bucks and Lehigh Counties, also straddles two of the most competitive congressional districts that will be on the ballot this fall, which could boost turnout and help down-ballot Democrats.

Merkl-Gump, 39, who helped Democrats win a majority on the Pennridge School Board in 2023, has argued he is ready to flip red seats blue. And Pinsley, 56, has pointed to accomplishments as county controller and experience he has gained as a public official since his previous campaign for the district in 2022, when Coleman won by more than 8 percentage points.

Democrats in Bucks County see the outcome of the party primary as make-or-break.

“I think this primary will decide whether or not we have a chance to win the election in the fall,” said State Sen. Steve Santarsiero (D., Bucks), the county party chair, who backs Merkl-Gump.

But in Lehigh County, where the Democratic committee does not make endorsements in primaries, party chair Lori McFarland said either candidate is up to the job of unseating Coleman, whom she described as absent for constituents.

“I think that if you have an ‘R’ behind your name … if you’re going to lose, it’s going to be in this election,” McFarland said.

Coleman’s campaign did not return a request for comment.

Here is what to know about the candidates and the race.

Merkl-Gump is a civics and U.S. history teacher at a middle school in the Perkiomen Valley School District and a self-proclaimed “swim dad,” who says community members urged him to run in the 16th District after his 2023 school board win helped flip the GOP-controlled board at the height of the culture-wars debate over diversity, equity, and inclusion policies.

In the years since, the members have reversed controversial policy decisions passed by the former board, voted to approve an elementary school redistricting plan, and authorized full-day kindergarten, local news outlets reported.

“I don’t think you run for public office because you want to,” Merkl-Gump said. “I think you run for public office because your community is asking you to step up and be their voice.”

For the 16th District, his priorities include increasing the minimum wage, funding public schools, and holding developing artificial intelligence data centers to certain energy and water standards. He also wants to limit “federal overreach” in state policies, though his website does not specifically mention the Trump administration.

As the Bucks County-based candidate in this race, he called himself the “underdog” since a majority of the district‘s primary voters are in Lehigh County.

“I was joking with somebody that right now I am ‘mild-mannered teacher by day, hotshot politician by night,’” Merkl-Gump said. “So it is a lot of taking time away from my family. My son joked that he didn’t know who I was the other day.”

But Merkl-Gump said his experience as a teacher and a dad and his coalition building in Upper Bucks — where Republicans have a larger voter registration lead over Democrats than in the Lehigh County area of the district, according to voter registration data — would translate into helping him succeed against Coleman in November.

Though the Bucks County Democratic Committee did not officially endorse a candidate after a failed straw poll earlier this year, Merkl-Gump has the backing of Santarsiero and other top Democratic leaders in Harrisburg, including State Sens. Jay Costa, of Pittsburgh, and Vincent Hughes, of Philadelphia. He also has the support of state representatives from Bucks and Lehigh Counties, the Allentown mayor, and the Pennsylvania council of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).

Pinsley panned Merkl-Gump’s endorsements as coming from the “establishment.”

“People that are working-class people are the ones that are endorsing me,” Pinsley said.

Pinsley has been Lehigh County controller since 2020, after flipping the seat from red to blue. In the role, he conducts independent audits of the county’s finances and governance.

In February, Pinsley dropped out of the competitive primary in the 7th Congressional District in the Lehigh Valley due to financial constraints and difficulties in finding a lane in the crowded race. After leaving that race, he shifted his focus to the 16th District.

“I thought, you know, ‘Where can I go where I can still make a difference?’” Pinsley said.

But it is his record of running for various political offices that has caused Merkl-Gump and allies to try to pin the controller as a “career politician.”

His largest priority in the 16th District race is addressing wealth inequality for residents, and he believes his record as controller makes him suited to address that and run against Coleman in November.

As controller, he called to evict U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement after the agency owed three years of back rent for office space, exceeding $115,000.

The Inquirer reported Wednesday that the occupant was Homeland Security Investigations, a division of ICE that helps investigate human trafficking. HSI vacated by late February, putting the county at odds with victims of human trafficking. HSI said it will continue to maintain a presence in the Lehigh Valley.

HSI’s and ICE’s priorities related to carrying out Trump’s immigration agenda do not justify “operating in county space without paying for it,” Pinsley said in a statement.

“Certainly they can occupy commercial space so long as they pay their bills,” he said.

Pinsley also published a nearly 100-page report, called “The Cost of Misdiagnosis,” that exposed concerns about parents in the county being mislabeled as child abusers. Parents later sued the Lehigh Valley Health Network, arguing that a doctor misdiagnosed families with medical child abuse, 6abc reported.

The controller said he got into politics and public service about 10 years ago, when Trump won his first presidential term. A decade into Trump’s arrival on the political scene, he said, Democrats need somebody “fighting back” in their local governments.

Pinsley has been emphatic about Trump and national issues in the 16th District primary. He has received endorsements from U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Calif.), Lehigh County Executive Josh Siegel, various unions, and the Lehigh Valley Democratic Socialists of America.

“I have shown as controller that you actually can step in, you can challenge these systems, and you can get results for the people,” Pinsley said. “And that’s what I intend on doing.”

Republicans hold an almost 23,000-voter registration advantage over Democrats in the 16th District.

In 2024, Trump made his biggest gains in Pennsylvania in the Lehigh Valley and became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Bucks County since 1988.

So how would a Democrat win?

Both candidates agree that it is the issues, not the political party, that voters across the ideological spectrum will rally around — issues like reducing the cost of living and accessing affordable healthcare that residents might be experiencing in both Bucks and Lehigh Counties.

Democrats also believe the poor approval ratings of Trump and the Republican-led Congress could be conducive to a blue wave, especially as gas prices spike following Trump’s decision to start a war with Iran.

“We do live in a red district, but … with the war and gas prices and everything, I think it could be a good year for Democrats,” said Adam Bencsik, chair of the Pennridge Democrats.

“It’s going to be an area of tremendous focus for the Democratic Party in the counties, in the state, and nationally,” said Tim Persico, partner at GPS Impact, a Democratic communications firm.

Pinsley said that as controller he has helped people on both sides of the political aisle and that he believes his name recognition will have voters remembering that at the polls.

“At the end of the day, we’re all feeling a boa constrictor squeezing us, and we need relief, and that’s where I’m going to focus,” Pinsley said.

Merkl-Gump and allies, however, argued the school board member has proven that he can win in a heavily Republican area.

“In a year like this, where we’re likely to have the wind at our backs, to say the least, if we have a candidate who’s proven the ability to get Republican votes … I think it puts us in a great position to take that seat,” said Santarsiero, the Bucks County Democratic chair.