Losing Jimmy Butler could throw the Sixers’ offseason into chaos | David Murphy

It’s been said before, but it’s worth repeating: replacing Jimmy Butler would not be as simple as paying an equivalent player the equivalent money and then plugging that player in. That’s true from a financial standpoint, first and foremost. The Sixers can pay Butler $32.7 million in the first year of a new deal, but they would only be able to pay a replacement somewhere in the neighborhood of $23 million while keeping the rest of the principal pieces from last year’s rotation in place (Tobias Harris, J.J. Redick, Mike Scott). It’s also true from a structural standpoint: there simply isn’t a realistic option available on the free agent market that would allow the Sixers to simply plug in and play.

The longer you study this year’s market, the more you wonder how it was ever a question whether the Sixers should want Butler back. Yes, there are real and legitimate concerns about his fit in a starting lineup that features Ben Simmons as the primary ballhandler. On the defensive end of the court, though, Butler does things that will be extraordinarily difficult to replace, given the paucity of available two-way wings. It seems obvious that Kawhi Leonard is looking elsewhere, even if the Sixers could make the money work. Same goes for the rest of the elite tier of free agents: Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Kristaps Porzingis, Kemba Walker. If Butler spurns the Sixers, replacing him will take some creativity.

Therein lies the primary reason that Elton Brand won’t have a choice but to consider a sign-and-trade deal like the one that the Rockets are reportedly determined to pursue. Butler’s departure would so radically alter the complexion of the Sixers rotation that they’d be foolish not to try at least to recoup something that could help them navigate a future without him. This is a climactic summer for the team, one that will need to set its payroll for the next three or four seasons. Moving forward, the Sixers’ lack of cap space will force them to rely on internal development and the free agent margins to offset decline.

Again, though, the current market does not offer a player who fills the many holes that Butler fills, both on the defensive end, where he can guard one through three, and the offensive end, where the benefits of his physicality, athleticism, and ballhandling ability were on display throughout the postseason. The one player who the Sixers might be able to project as a straight up Butler replacement -- albeit a lesser version -- is Khris Middleton, but he’s believed to be headed for a max deal, which the Sixers would not be able to afford without significantly limiting their ability to address the rest of the rotation. The Bucks can go over the cap to re-sign Middleton. The Sixers cannot.

If Butler leaves, the Sixers will essentially be forced to undergo an identity change for the fourth time since the start of last season. One option that they are reportedly considering is Celtics big man Al Horford, whose defensive presence alongside Joel Embiid could allow them to re-sign Harris with the thought that he would guard the three. Harris isn’t an ideal matchup against the league’s athletic wings, but with another rim protector at the four, it could work. Horford spent plenty of time playing next to other big men in Boston, with very good results. Such a move would also solve the Sixers’ recurring nightmare at backup center.

But the risk of committing three or four years at $20+ million to a 33-year-old big man is just as big and probably even greater than giving five years to Butler. The Sixers could consider the other side of the spectrum, replacing Butler with a guard and taking advantage of the fact that their point guard is capable of guarding the three or the four.

Two players who would be feasible: Malcolm Brogdon and Patrick Beverley. Brogdon’s efficiency numbers are about as good as they get below the superstar tier of the free agent market. He shot .426 from three-point range last season — better than Redick has shot in either of his two seasons in Philly — and his .614 true shooting percentage ranked sixth among guards. That sort of production would fit very nicely next to Simmons in the Sixers’ backcourt, but Brogdon has missed time with injury each of the last two seasons and has never averaged more than 29 minutes a game in a season. These concerns, along with his pricetag, and the fact that the Bucks will have the ability to match any offer he receives, might make Beverley the better fit.

A tenacious defender who is a .394 shooter from three-point range over his last three seasons, Beverley can also handle the ball, and has been reported to be seeking a contract that would pay him between $13 and $15 million per season. That would leave the Sixers with enough money to spend on a competent backup for Joel Embiid, while also reducing the likelihood that they eclipse the salary cap apron. It would also leave them relying heavily on Smith and rookie Matisse Thybulle.

There are more radical options. The Sixers could part ways with Redick and look to upgrade their defense at the two, perhaps bringing in postseason foe Danny Green, who showed in the Finals that he can still make an impact on both sides of the ball. They could then err on the side of offense at the three, enabling them to consider someone like the Pacers’ Bojan Bogdanovic, although there would be serious questions about his and Harris’ ability to handle the three and the four. Offensively, though, it would leave them without a second ballhandler to pair with Simmons.

There are no easy answers. It’s why they have little choice but to bite the bullet and pay Harris whatever it takes and then do everything in their power to convince Butler to stay.