A look at the Sixers’ options if they lose Jimmy Butler | David Murphy

Even after you realize that the Sixers’ best chance at contending next season is with Jimmy Butler on the roster, two significant questions remain.

1) Does he actually want to be here?

2) What if he doesn’t?

It’s easy to take No. 1 for granted if you look at things from a monetary perspective and a monetary perspective alone. The Sixers can offer an extra guaranteed year and 3 percent more in annual raises, but we should be careful not to overstate the significance of that fifth year. If he signed a one-year deal with a new team and then re-upped with a four-year deal, that’d be five years, too. Obviously there’s less risk in taking five years, but not decisively.

As one might have expected, Butler kept his cards close to his chest on the handful of occasions that he was pressed about his desire to remain in Philadelphia long term. In his exit interview press conference, he said that quality of life would be a consideration, not just from his own perspective but from that of the rest of his support group.

Inner circle aside, it isn’t hard to envision a scenario in which Butler the basketball player decides he would be happier playing elsewhere. The Sixers were a different team this postseason than they were in the regular season, and the chief difference was that Butler had the ball in his hands, and it is fair to wonder how much deference the Sixers will again suddenly feel obliged to show Ben Simmons the Point Guard once 2019-20 begins and the schedule is five months away from mattering. Is that something Butler can oblige?

Whatever the answer, the Sixers need to prepare for the possibility that it is a resounding, “No," if only to maximize their leverage at the bargaining table.

Of course, one might quickly surmise that they don’t have much.

A few thoughts:

1) The Sixers almost certainly do not have the cap space to sign an external free agent to a max contract, assuming that Tobias Harris ends up here on a mega deal, which has always seemed like a sure thing (witness his brothers being brought in for predraft workouts). There are some theoretical ways in which they could clear the requisite space, but it would probably require parting with Zhaire Smith, which wouldn’t make a lot of sense for a variety of reasons. So cross out Kemba Walker, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson, even if you can talk yourself into some scenario in which one of them wants to be here.

2) Cross out most of the rest of the blockbuster free agents. There are a handful of players who might fit with some iteration of the Sixers, but not one that includes Harris. Bojan Bogdanovic has a similar skill set and isn’t regarded as a great defender — pairing him with Harris would raise some serious questions about the Sixers’ ability to guard the perimeter. The story is similar in the cases of Nikola Mirotic, Nikola Vucevic, and Al Horford -- even if you believe any or all could coexist with Joel Embiid, it’s difficult to envision how it might work on the defensive end, where Harris doesn’t really have a natural position. The best-case scenario is to pair him with someone at the three or four who is more athletic and more versatile and better able to guard on the ball.

3) Malcolm Brogdon might be one exception, depending on how you define the term “blockbuster." There’s a good chance that isn’t going to be as cheap as some might think. Since 2005, only five players have finished their third NBA season with at least 110 starts, 2,300 points, and a .400+ three-point shooting percentage: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Bradley Beal, Buddy Hield, and Brogdon. In fact, Brogdon has a higher true shooting percentage than any of them had during their first three seasons (his .585 mark ranks 27th among NBA players who have attempted as many or more shots over the last three seasons). The flip side is that he has missed significant time due to injury in each of the last two seasons.

» READ MORE: Malcolm Brogdon would be a good addition

Look at Zach LaVine and Gary Harris and it’s hard to bet on Brogdon being had for less than the four years and $72 million that LaVine signed for last offseason. That, plus a JJ Redick return at a similar salary, would leave the Sixers no better off than if they had Butler, Redick, and the mid level exception at their disposal.

4) If Butler leaves, it could necessitate that the Sixers part ways with Redick. The one thing that the playoffs showed us is how much more value Ben Simmons can provide when the Sixers have the option of moving him off of the ball and putting the half-court offense in the hands of someone who is better at creating shots for himself and others off the dribble. In addition to being that player, Butler also gave them an elite on-the-ball defender as a bonus out of that role. The presence of a legit, top-shelf, two-way player helped the Sixers get by with a couple of below average-to-below defenders in Redick and Harris. Without that sort of versatility, the Sixers might find that they need more of a two-way player in both Butler’s former spot and Redick’s spot.

Take Patrick Beverley, for instance. He’s an elite defender, but does he bring enough of an isolation scoring punch to pair with Redick, or would the Sixers be better off spending Redick’s money on another ballhandler capable of playing 20 minutes a night? Beverley would be a wonderful fit for this team. One might expect him to land a contract with an AAV in the range of what the Celtics gave Marcus Smart last summer. That would allow the Sixers to sign both Beverley and Brogdon, but, in all likelihood, without enough money to bring Redick back at last year’s number. Same goes for Darren Collison, another ballhandling, three-point-shooting potential option to pair with Simmons in Butler’s stead. You can have two of the three, but not all three.

There is no obvious answer, which is the biggest reason you should expect the Sixers to make a concerted effort to bring back Butler. But it’s a question they have no choice but to consider.