Joel Embiid’s latest injury adds another wrinkle to Sixers’ looming cruel summer

The blessing for the Sixers is Joel Embiid's skill and talent is unmatched. The curse is that he's injured, there's not much left for a top team like Boston to fear.

With a player like Joel Embiid, writes David Murphy, you hold onto him until he forces his way out.Read moreCharles Fox / Staff Photographer

by David Murphy | Columnist

Published May 1, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

The only thing bigger than the biggest question of Game 1 is the question that it will ultimately lead to.

What do the 76ers do now?

It was always going to be there. James Harden was always going to be eligible to hit free agency. He was always going to use that leverage. Tyrese Maxey was always going to be in a position to sign a contract extension that pays him like a bona fide star. The Sixers were always going to have to find a way to balance the financial demands of new contracts for their two guards with the money they still owe Tobias Harris for one more season. Daryl Morey and Josh Harris were always going to have to decide whether the current formula can work well enough to warrant doubling down in such a dramatic fashion. And they were always going to have to hope that their assessment would be shared by the key players involved.

The big difference now is the potential absence of the player who is the biggest key.

This Eastern Conference semifinals series against the Celtics is supposed to be a proving ground, the place that will establish whether the latest framework around Joel Embiid was indeed championship caliber. Now, for the third straight year, they will enter Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals with a centerpiece player who is both an MVP finalist and a question mark to play in the first series of the season that actually matters. For the second straight year, that uncertainty is great enough that it threatens to overshadow the series itself. If Embiid really is dealing with a four-to-six week injury, how can you possibly think about a one-to-two week series without acknowledging the questions that quick exit would portend?

The Sixers do not necessarily need to win the series, but they do need to show that they are capable of doing so. They need to show that Harden and Maxey can co-exist on a defense that works against a tandem like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. They need to show that one of the two can play through the traffic that awaits a primary scoring perimeter player against a team as physical, cohesive, and versatile as the Celtics. They need to show that the Harden-Embiid two-man game can thrive in the close confines of a series like the one this is supposed to be.

Problem is, we don’t know if it is still supposed to be that series. Without Embiid, the Sixers are toast. At the very least, he needs to be healthy enough to roam the paint on the defensive end and provide a second line of defense against Tatum, Brown, and bench-scoring dynamo Malcolm Brogdon. We’ve already seen what the Celtics can do when they don’t have to worry about running into Embiid. In the 14ish minutes that Paul Reed played against Boston in the regular season, the Sixers were outscored by a combined 27 points. Even 60% of Embiid is better than 100% of most others.

You’d love to assume that he can at least give them that. Maybe the lack of optimism is the Sixers protecting their guy. Maybe it’s their guy’s guys protecting his reputation in case his sprained knee robs him of his usual dominance. Maybe it’s gamesmanship. Maybe he’ll be there like he was two years ago against the Hawks, with vintage performances in Games 1 and 2 despite a torn meniscus that sidelined him for the final game of the first round.

Or, maybe it’s unfair to expect any of that.

This much is clear: it’s nearly impossible to have a productive conversation about the Sixers’ prospects against the Celtics without knowing the operating condition of the one player who gives them a chance. The blessing and curse of Embiid are one in the same. His impact is so extraordinary, his presence so singular, his gifts so unique that it seems almost impossible to build a team that is capable of winning a series like this without him. To a certain extent, that makes him exactly like every other superstar that has ever achieved his heights. The Sixers without Embiid are the Bulls without Jordan, the Warriors without Curry, the Cavs without LeBron. The big difference is how often the Sixers are actually without him.

In the end, they probably don’t have much of a choice. They can’t part ways with Harden without getting worse. They can’t trade him. They will still be over the cap, which means they can’t replace the salary they would have otherwise paid him. Which means they almost have to be willing to give him whatever it will take to stay.

Maxey offers more optionality. He’s the one chip that the Sixers can play that might fundamentally alter the makeup of the team without sacrificing their overall level of talent. That is, they can trade him for a player or players who fit better around Harden and Embiid. This summer, he’ll be able to make a strong case that, at the very least, he deserves to be paid in line with guys like Tyler Herro (four years, $120 million) and Jordan Poole (four years, $128 million). That’s face-of-the-franchise money for a franchise that already has two such faces. If the die is cast with the Harden-Embiid tandem, Maxey is one option the Sixers could play to land a more compatible star.

At the same time, it’d be tough to say goodbye to a player who has wormed his way into the fan base’s hearts the way Maxey has. His value isn’t going south any time soon.

And what about Embiid?

There is only one option for a player who is impactful enough to prompt this level of hand-wringing. You hold onto him until he forces himself out of your grasp.