Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard
Link copied to clipboard

Sixers among top liabilities for sportsbook during NBA playoffs

There are a lot of factors to consider as the NBA playoffs begin.

Sixers center Joel Embiid drives to the basket against Toronto Raptors forward Precious Achiuwa in the first quarter on Sunday, March 20, 2022 in Philadelphia.
Sixers center Joel Embiid drives to the basket against Toronto Raptors forward Precious Achiuwa in the first quarter on Sunday, March 20, 2022 in Philadelphia.Read moreELIZABETH ROBERTSON / Staff Photographer

An indication of how wide open things are in the NBA is to look at the trends around some of the sportsbooks. Caesars has gotten hit with a ton of plays on the Suns to win the championship, many from their Arizona customers.

As of earlier this week, 25% of money wagered on current playoff teams (i.e. not the Lakers) has come in on the Suns. They’re holding one ticket of $40,000 when Phoenix was +450. The Suns, who posted an NBA-best 64 wins, have odds about half that today.

At BetMGM, their two largest liabilities among Eastern Conference teams are on the Celtics and Sixers. And everybody will take a hit if Brooklyn comes through. Not sure a No. 7 seed has ever been third on the oddsboard at around 6-1.

There are still two spots open heading into the final evening of the play-in round. Let the mayhem begin.

Eastern Conference

No. 4 Sixers vs. No. 5 Toronto

W-L: Sixers 51-31, Toronto 48-34

Series odds: Sixers -180, Raptors +150

Game 1: Sixers -4.5. Over/under: 216.

First 4 games: Saturday/Monday at Philadelphia; Wednesday/Saturday, April 23 at Toronto.

Head-to-Head: Toronto won and covered three of four. The over/under varied (224, 223, 181, 233).

Notable: DraftKings has a prop that Joel Embiid will average 32.5 points per game in this series (-120 over/-110 under). Embiid had 30, 21 and 36 in three games against the Raptors this year (29.0 avg.). Toronto usually does a decent job of double- and even triple-teaming the Sixers’ big man, so a play on him getting over 3.5 assists in Game 1 (-130 over/-105 under) would be more prudent. … Pascal Siakam, the Raptors’ center and also a Cameroon native, actually has more points this season against the Sixers (91 in three games) than Embiid has against the Raptors. … In 21 games with the Sixers, James Harden shot 40.2% from the field, 32.6% from three – each would be a career low for a full season. He was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 8 from distance in two games against Toronto as a Sixer. Ugh.

Pick: Raptors +4.5 for Game 1. Toronto in 6 for the series.

No. 1 Miami vs. No. 8 Atlanta or Cleveland

W-L: Miami 53-29, Cleveland 44-38, Atlanta 43-39.

Series odds: N/A

Game 1: N/A

First 4 games: Sunday/Tuesday at Miami; Friday/Sunday, April 24 at TBA

Head-to-Head: Miami won and covered three of four against Atlanta. The Heat lost two of three to Cleveland.

Notable: Atlanta is hosting Cleveland on Friday night (7:30 p.m., ESPN) in the East’s final play-in game. Winner takes on Miami in a tight turnaround starting Sunday (1 p.m., TNT). … Miami had the best home record in the East at 29-12, but was just 21-20-2 against the spread at home. … Miami’s Kyle Lowry isn’t scoring like he did with Toronto, but his 7.5 assists per game is the second-highest of his 16-year career. … A potentially interesting development Sunday from an otherwise meaningless game was former All-Star Victor Oladipo scoring 40 points for Miami against Orlando. Oladipo, 29, hasn’t played much since rupturing his right quad tendon in 2019, and wasn’t expected to be part of the playoff rotation. But he’s given coach Erik Spoelstra something to think about.

Pick: Not making a selection, but this could be a long and losable series for Miami. Game 1 will be more important for the Heat than their opponent.

No. 2 Boston vs. No. 7 Brooklyn

W-L: Boston 51-31, Brooklyn 44-38

Series odds: Boston -130, Brooklyn +110. Caesars opened the Celtics at +115 for the series, which was pounded heavily by sharp players who saw them -150 or so at other shops – both regulated and off-shore.

Game 1: Boston -4. Over/under: 224.

First 4 games: Sunday/Wednesday at Boston; Saturday, April 23/Monday, April 25 at Brooklyn

Head-to-Head: Boston won three of four, including March 6, which was the only game Brooklyn star Kyrie Irving suited up. All four games went over, including Boston’s 126-120 win in Boston that night. Brooklyn beat Boston in five games in the first round last season.

Notable: Irving is to Boston what Ben Simmons is to Philadelphia except, you know, Irving actually plays. Irving was with the Celtics from 2017-19 before bolting for Brooklyn. He has purposely stepped on the leprechaun at Boston’s center court and compared the fans to a disenchanted girlfriend. His individual props for Game 1 at DK are 27.5 points (-105/-120), 4.5 rebounds (-125/-105), 5.5 assists (-130/+100), and 2.5 turnovers (-130/-105). … There’s still a chance Simmons could play toward the end of the series.

Pick: Boston will be without center Robert Williams (torn meniscus), a key piece defensively. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at plus money doesn’t happen often. Nets in 6.

» READ MORE: NBA playoffs preview: X-factor, key matchup and more Sixers-Raptors storylines

No. 3 Milwaukee vs. No. 6 Chicago

W-L: Milwaukee 51-31, Chicago 46-36

Series odds: Milwaukee -1000, Chicago +650.

Game 1: Milwaukee -10. Over/under: 229.

First 4 games: Sunday/Wednesday at Milwaukee; Friday/Sunday, April 24 at Chicago

Head-to-Head: Milwaukee won all four, and has won 16 of 17 in the series.

Notable: The Bulls in six weeks went from the East’s No. 1 seed to nearly having to participate in the play-in games. There’s more confidence in the Russian ruble than them getting past the defending champions here, thus the astronomical series price. … Their 7-15 close to the season included the three losses to Milwaukee by margins of 6, 28 and 21 points. … Milwaukee has won 13 in a row against Chicago when Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in the lineup. Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.7 points and 12.8 boards in that span. His Game 1 props are 32.5 points (-110/-115), 12.5 rebounds (-120/-110).

Pick: Hard to pick a sweep in a 3-6 matchup. Bucks in 5.

Western Conference

No. 1 Phoenix vs. No. 8 L.A. Clippers or New Orleans

W-L: Phoenix 64-18, L.A. Clippers 42-40, New Orleans 36-46

Series odds: N/A (but they won’t be pretty).

Game 1: Also N/A.

First 4 games: Sunday/Tuesday at Phoenix; Friday/Sunday, April 24 at LAC/NO

Head-to-Head: Phoenix split four games with the Clippers (all four went under), and won three of four from New Orleans.

Notable: The Suns at +260 were BetMGM’s championship favorites as of Thursday with Devin Booker (+500) and Chris Paul (+750) two of the three favorites to win Finals MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo is +700. … There’s less of a runner-up hangover in the NBA than in the NFL. Since 2012, four teams that lost the championship series rebounded to win it the following year (2012 Heat, 2014 Spurs, 2016 Cavaliers, 2017 Warriors).

Pick: How about Mikal Bridges for Finals MVP at 50-1? Suns in 5 whoever they play.

No. 4 Dallas vs. No. 5 Utah

W-L: Dallas 52-30, Utah 49-33

Series odds: Utah -300, Dallas +230.

Game 1: Utah -5. Over/under: 210.

First 4 games: Saturday/Monday at Dallas; Thursday/Saturday, April 23 at Utah

Head-to-Head: Split four meetings with Dallas covering all four. It’s somewhat meaningless, however, given who will not be there for the Mavericks to at least start the series.

Notable: This series turned upside down the minute Dallas star Luka Doncic suffered a calf strain in Sunday’s regular-season finale and has been ruled out for Game 1. Dallas was 8-9 this season without Doncic, who was used on 37.4% of Mavericks’ offensive plays – tops in the NBA.

Pick: Utah’s probably going to win the series, but Dallas at home in Game 1 getting 5 points is the call here.

No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 7 Minnesota

W-L: Memphis 56-26, Minnesota 46-36

Series odds: Memphis -330, Minnesota +260.

Game 1: Memphis -7. Over/under: 233.5.

First 4 games: Saturday/Tuesday at Memphis; Thursday/Saturday, April 23 at Minnesota

Head-to-Head: Split four meetings with neither winning on the opposing home court.

Notable: The T’Wolves led the league in scoring at 115.9 per game, so not surprisingly a league-high 60.2% percent of their contests went over the over/under. Their last two games against Memphis were under, however (224 and 233 points), and Saturday’s total of 234.5 was the highest on the board. … Memphis covered an impressive 64.2% of its games (52-29-1), most of any playoff team. (Dallas was next at 58.8%.) The Grizzlies were even better at home at 65.9% (27-14). … It’s not really betting related, but these are the two youngest teams in the playoffs with Memphis’ average age 24.0 years old and Minnesota’s 24.2. I have T-shirts older than 24.2 years.

Pick: A fun series. Grizzlies in 6

No. 3 Golden State vs. No. 6 Denver

W-L: Golden State 53-29, Denver 48-34

Series odds: Golden State -250, Denver +210.

Game 1: Golden State -6.5. Over/under: 223.5.

First 4 games: Saturday/Monday at Golden State; Thursday/Sunday, April 24 at Denver

Head-to-Head: Denver won three of four. Each team covered twice.

Notable: The Nuggets have won a playoff series in each of the last three years, something they hadn’t done since the 1970s when Larry Brown was their coach. … DraftKings has Denver’s Nikola Jokic, who closed as the favorite to win regular-season MVP over Joel Embiid, as +265 to record a triple-double in Game 1. No is -400. There have been eight triple-doubles in the playoffs against the Warriors since 2013. Six were by LeBron James, once each by Russell Westbrook and Jrue Holiday. … Golden State’s Steph Curry hasn’t played in a month because of a foot sprain, but it looks like he will play in Game 1.

Pick: Nuggets, in an upset, in 6.

Sources: Inquirer research, VegasInsider.com, TeamRankings.com. Odds via DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon unless noted.

And finally

When Dallas hosted Utah on March 27, they were 4-point favorites and Utah was without its best defensive player, Rudy Gobert.

On Saturday, Dallas is expected to be without their best all-around player and they are 5-point underdogs because of it. Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson summed up best what Luka Doncic means to his team.

“That’s our organization right there,” he said. “When you think of ‘Dallas Mavericks,’ you think of him.”